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December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast


wdrag
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2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

7.1" was my total here in Colts Neck, Monmouth County. Significant level storm - nice to see after a nearly 3 year snowfall drought.


...Monmouth County...
 Freehold                     7.2 in    0930 PM 12/16   Public               
 Colts Neck                   7.1 in    1010 PM 12/16   Trained Spotter      
 Holmdel                      7.0 in    0900 PM 12/16   Trained Spotter      
 Hazlet                       6.5 in    1000 PM 12/16   Public               
 2 ENE Perrineville           6.3 in    0300 AM 12/17   Trained Spotter      
 Freehold Twp                 6.2 in    1015 PM 12/16   Trained Spotter      
 Howell                       6.1 in    0830 PM 12/16   Public               
 Manalapan Twp                6.0 in    1000 PM 12/16   Trained Spotter      
 1 S Howell                   6.0 in    0605 PM 12/16   Public               
 Rumson                       5.5 in    0830 PM 12/16   Public               
 1 N Eatontown                4.5 in    0910 PM 12/16   Trained Spotter      
 Leonardo                     4.0 in    0945 PM 12/16   Public               
 Matawan                      4.0 in    0920 PM 12/16   Amateur Radio        
 Middletown                   4.0 in    0824 PM 12/16   Public               
 Tinton Falls                 3.5 in    0847 PM 12/16   Public               
 Long Branch                  2.3 in    0900 PM 12/16   CO-OP Observer       
 Cliffwood Beach              1.8 in    0600 PM 12/16   Trained Spotter      
 Wall Twp                     1.8 in    0529 PM 12/16   Broadcast Media      
 Atlantic Highlands           1.2 in    0548 PM 12/16   Public               
 Oakhurst                     0.8 in    0650 PM 12/16   Trained Spotter     

...Monmouth County...
 Freehold                     7.2 in    0930 PM 12/16   Public               
 Colts Neck                   7.1 in    1010 PM 12/16   Trained Spotter      
 Holmdel                      7.0 in    0900 PM 12/16   Trained Spotter      
 Hazlet                       6.5 in    1000 PM 12/16   Public               
 2 ENE Perrineville           6.3 in    0300 AM 12/17   Trained Spotter      
 Freehold Twp                 6.2 in    1015 PM 12/16   Trained Spotter      
 Howell                       6.1 in    0830 PM 12/16   Public               
 Manalapan Twp                6.0 in    1000 PM 12/16   Trained Spotter      
 1 S Howell                   6.0 in    0605 PM 12/16   Public               
 Rumson                       5.5 in    0830 PM 12/16   Public               
 1 N Eatontown                4.5 in    0910 PM 12/16   Trained Spotter      
 Leonardo                     4.0 in    0945 PM 12/16   Public               
 Matawan                      4.0 in    0920 PM 12/16   Amateur Radio        
 Middletown                   4.0 in    0824 PM 12/16   Public               
 Tinton Falls                 3.5 in    0847 PM 12/16   Public               
 Long Branch                  2.3 in    0900 PM 12/16   CO-OP Observer       
 Cliffwood Beach              1.8 in    0600 PM 12/16   Trained Spotter      
 Wall Twp                     1.8 in    0529 PM 12/16   Broadcast Media      
 Atlantic Highlands           1.2 in    0548 PM 12/16   Public               
 Oakhurst                     0.8 in    0650 PM 12/16   Trained Spotter     

 

 

7.5" is my final total here, after this morning's additional accumulation. 

 

 

 

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@wdrag The call for an icy mess on the immediate coast here looks like it worked out. Parents in Long Beach say there’s ice everywhere, guess it rained for a time down there and all refroze. Not sure how much snow/sleet but hopefully 5-6”? Anyway now it’ll freeze into a brick if not already. Sun starting to peek out here and snow’s done. Very nice event even if it verified on the low end of expectations for snow amounts. My more conservative thought worked out well. 
 

Here I think I’ll go with 8” but may have been a little more if rain/sleet compacted the snow overnight. 

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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

@wdrag The call for an icy mess on the immediate coast here looks like it worked out. Parents in Long Beach say there’s ice everywhere, guess it rained for a time down there and all refroze. Not sure how much snow/sleet but hopefully 5-6”? Anyway now it’ll freeze into a brick if not already. Sun starting to peek out here and snow’s done. Very nice event even if it verified on the low end of expectations for snow amounts. My more conservative thought worked out well. 
 

Here I think I’ll go with 8” but may have been a little more if rain/sleet compacted the snow overnight. 

I slept through most of it. I remember hearing a lot of sleet. The pinging stopped early this morning. I'm guessing we have about 3-4", at best, of concrete. The wind was howling at times last night. Enough to wake me up. I was just waiting for it to take the power out.

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Hi! I've been offline for 4 hours.  You may already have this imagery... CoCoRAHS snowfall for the event up through their ob time this morning. 

Tomorrow I may post a two day summary total for those locations that will report both days. 

 

No thunder: so despite no thunder...drama occurred NYC forum and NYS forums. 

Power outages: not much and in NYS concentrated where I didn't expect...well upstate near and w of BGM.

Thanks much for all your reports, model posts-impressions, climate comments. I'll be curious as to the NESIS evaluation for this storm (not top 20 in our area  but ne USA, maybe?) 

 

Screen_Shot_2020-12-17_at_11_54.05_AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-12-17 at 11.52.58 AM.png

Screen_Shot_2020-12-17_at_11_53.41_AM.png

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2 minutes ago, ARyan said:

I slept through most of it. I remember hearing a lot of sleet. The pinging stopped early this morning. I'm guessing we have about 3-4", at best, of concrete. The wind was howling at times last night. Enough to wake me up. I was just waiting for it to take the power out.

Yikes, OK thanks. Wind was howling here too but I’m sure was worse down there. Luckily since almost no big trees post Sandy are left there, not as much to fall on power lines and take them out. 

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1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

none of those are even close to the 40 inches NWS BGM has received, even using Kucera.

You're right but ... an extreme event of 40,  I know I'm not there predicting that with any confidence-reliability. The idea of 20-25 should cue up attention. 

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yikes, OK thanks. Wind was howling here too but I’m sure was worse down there. Luckily since almost no big trees post Sandy are left there, not as much to fall on power lines and take them out. 

Same here. Thankfully we didn't lose power. However, we did lose internet...from a car hitting a power pole.

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42 minutes ago, wdrag said:

You're right but ... an extreme event of 40,  I know I'm not there predicting that with any confidence-reliability. The idea of 20-25 should cue up attention. 

One thing about NJ that I always remind folks of; we do not have, generally speaking, a whole lot of extreme weather. Big blizzards are not really common, serious hurricanes are even less common, ( no volcanoes, no earthquakes, either )no prolonged extreme heat and no prolonged arctic winters. We could do with less rain in the spring IMO. 

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FWIW, I thought the CMC, at least based on the 0Z run from Tuesday late night did the best with the storm, overall (and it was good before then too). It didn't have over 12" for Philly-NYC, like some did, and it captured the very heavy snows in central PA and NY state, as well as across parts of VT/NH better than the rest of the models.  

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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22 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

FWIW, I thought the CMC, at least based on the 0Z run from Tuesday late night did the best with the storm, overall (and it was good before then too). It didn't have over 12" for Philly-NYC, like some did, and it captured the very heavy snows in central PA and NY state, as well as across parts of VT/NH better than the rest of the models.  

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

Yup. Kudos to the CMC. Many were disbelieving such a northern jackpot solution including me early on, until other models started joining. 

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