HVSnowLover Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Looks like maybe one more burst of heavy precip coming in from the south, we’ll see how far north it gets and what precip type it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyDop Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Mod sleet here in Garden City (West central Nassau County). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 11 hours ago, wdrag said: Snow measuring: CoCORAHS guidance is deepest in 24 hours from time it began for storm total (greater 24hrs, clean the board and add whatever hours beyond). However, not all offices do that. I know in Mt Holly, to limit snowmelt and or drifting problems, clean the board every 6 hours. That's what I'll be doing at 845PM tonight. Mat from NJ Climate Center may be commenting-adding on. When the guidance on measuring snow changed several years ago (and for the life of me I can't find when it happened, but I remember that it did indeed happen), the instructions included that the board would no longer be wiped at a phase change. I've never agreed with that. As a hypothetical example: 1. In a 20 hour period 3" sleet falls with 1.00" liquid followed by 6" snow with 0.5" liquid. Total precip =1.50" Daily Snow measured = 9" 2. Same scenario but the snow falls first and gets beaten into unconsciousness by the sleet. (assuming for this exercise that the snow and sleet depth at end was 6") Total precip = 1.50" Daily Snow measured = 6" The exact same precip fell in both storms and its all still lying on the ground, but a casual observer would easily conclude that the event where 9" was measured was bigger than the 6" event. You can make inferences based on the liquid equivalent, but in the end you are losing information about the amount of snow and sleet that fell. In many ways snow depth and SWE are more important metrics, but snowfall is a different statistic and is what most of us are more interested in That being said, there were a lot of phase changes tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: When the guidance on measuring snow changed several years ago (and for the life of me I can't find when it happened, but I remember that id did indeed happen), the instructions included that the board would no longer be wiped at a phase change. I've never agreed with that. As a hypothetical example: 1. In a 20 hour period 3" sleet falls with 1.00" liquid followed by 6" snow with 0.5" liquid. Total precip =1.50" Daily Snow measured = 9" 2. Same scenario but the snow falls first and gets beaten into unconsciousness by the sleet. (assuming for this exercise that the snow and sleet depth at end was 6") Total precip = 1.50" Daily Snow measured = 6" The exact same precip fell in both storms and its all still lying on the ground, but a casual observer would easily conclude that the event where 9" was measured was bigger than the 6" event. You can make infereneces based on the liquid equivalent, but in the end you are losing information about the amount of snow and sleet that fell. In many ways snow depth and SWE are more important metrics, but snowfall is a different statistic and is what most of us are more interested in That being said, there were a lot of phase changes tonight. I've had the same discussion with several people since the change and I agree with you 110% for the same reason. Unfortunately those in power do not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Sleet line is rapidly moving east. So at this point forward it’s just a matter of how much precip we can get. Good luck to us all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 28 degrees with what looks like a sleet/Zr mix now. visibility seems down so maybe snow mixing in again can’t even fully tell precip type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: 28 degrees with what looks like a sleet/Zr mix now. visibility seems down so maybe snow mixing in again can’t even fully tell precip type It’s been all over the place for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Ripping again after some sleet. Temp 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Snowing here. Dunno if it's mixing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 17, 2020 Author Share Posted December 17, 2020 Wantage NJ 8 s High Point 315AM report 9.6 total (4.3 since the 845PM report). SD 9. Densely packed small flake snowfall, wind driven. 20.*F and rising a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Pivotal maps were right Wxbell maps were wrong 10:1 ratio maps once again sucks how my 9" looking there? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 17, 2020 Author Share Posted December 17, 2020 Concerned about CLI DB. Someone please correct me. I see the excellent midnight CP 6.5" yet, the CLI does not show this as a record. XMACIS does. Why the difference between XMACIS Daily Almanac and the OKX CLI (5.3 vs 7.0). Thank you very much in advance. Almanac for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx) December 16, 2020 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature M 43 63 in 1971 19 in 1886 Min Temperature M 32 48 in 1971 7 in 1876 Avg Temperature M 37.2 55.5 in 1971 14.5 in 1917 Precipitation M 0.12 2.25 in 1974 0.00 in 2017 Snowfall M 0.2 5.3 in 1948 0.0 in 2019 Snow Depth M - 10 in 1960 0 in 2019 HDD (base 65) M 28 50 in 1917 9 in 1971 CDD (base 65) M 0 0 in 2019 0 in 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 17, 2020 Author Share Posted December 17, 2020 CP: I did not check, will try in an hour but if someone has the answer. The 6.5 " in CP in one day is largest since??? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 17, 2020 Author Share Posted December 17, 2020 Be thankful for whatever we get. I forgot... NWS doesn't have snow climo anymore for POU, MPO. So I guess we won't know for sure on amounts per NWS CLI. Just have to regionalize average the nearby CoCORAHS etc values. BDR daily RER snowfall 6.5", ABE 9.2, PHL 6.3 - the latter PA values not daily RER's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 17, 2020 Author Share Posted December 17, 2020 Jackpot areas so far: 25-28" reports very near BGM (3 reports 25 or more), and multiple 20's IPT. Here's a look at reports that posted thru 350AM. Power outage problem did materialize as I anticipated. That is good news. Have not looked at guidance since 930PM last night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 It's been snowing decently here for a few hours. I don't know how much has mixed, haven't been able to get outside, but I wouldn't be surprised if LGA has an impressive total. All things considered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jysamuel Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Found the jackpot - once in a lifetime event going on in Upstate NY --> southern NE Makes us look like plebeians worrying over inches while they're measuring in 2-foot increments lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 6 hours ago, RU848789 said: As of 9 pm we have 5.75" OTG - slowed down a bit the last 30 min with the radar break; hoping it picks back up soon. Pretty happy so far. Would love to get to 10". 26F now. We had 6.0" at 11 pm and then after finishing up poker around 1 am, I went out and shoveled while it was snowing mostly lightly (had sleet before then) and finished around 3 am. We got about another 1" from 11-3 for a probable final tally of 7.0", which matches up well with the 6.5-7.5" amounts I've seen in northern Middlesex County; we did get 12-16" drifts, lol. Not quite the 8-12" range I was thinking for the 95 corridor, but not that far off either. Was certainly a fun storm to track and enjoy. I had cleared the board at 11 pm and we got about 1/2" of sleet and a 1/2" of snow, which would've been about 2" if all snow (which would've been 8" total). Yeah a foot would've been nice, but I got almost as much as all last winter, so i'm pretty happy. Was interesting to see how many of the areas predicted to get maybe 1-3/2-4", like much of SNJ near Philly (which got 6.3") and northern Ocean and much of Monmouth County ended up getting 4-7", so those areas overperformed while the 95 corridor underperformed a fair amount vs. the NWS forecasts, but weren't too bad vs. the 6-12" forecasts many had. And the areas NW of 95 and well NW that were forecast to get 12-18" (and up to 20" in spots) busted pretty badly as I've only seen a few reports over 10" with only the Poconos getting over 12". The 8-14" for NYC/LI busted moderately, as they mostly got 4-8" with Central Park getting 6.5", more than last winter although maybe it's not quite done there yet. Turns out that it wasn't really the sleet that got us nearly as much as simply not getting the precip. The areas that got all the precip were huge swaths of central/northern PA and much of NY from Binghamton to Albany, where many locations got over 20" of snow (and some places got 30"). Some folks may still pick up another inch or so (we're getting some light snow still). And yes, my back is killng me, lol - this is why I usually shovel every 3-4" and not all at once... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 23 minutes ago, wdrag said: Be thankful for whatever we get. I forgot... NWS doesn't have snow climo anymore for POU, MPO. So I guess we won't know for sure on amounts per NWS CLI. Just have to regionalize average the nearby CoCORAHS etc values. BDR daily RER snowfall 6.5", ABE 9.2, PHL 6.3 - the latter PA values not daily RER's. Why don't they have snow climo at POU anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, jysamuel said: Found the jackpot - once in a lifetime event going on in Upstate NY --> southern NE Makes us look like plebeians worrying over inches while they're measuring in 2-foot increments lol Busted forecast to an incredibly positive degree. IMBY our forecast for around 18-24 still seems good but kind of pathetic in comparison, lmao. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 17, 2020 Author Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: When the guidance on measuring snow changed several years ago (and for the life of me I can't find when it happened, but I remember that it did indeed happen), the instructions included that the board would no longer be wiped at a phase change. I've never agreed with that. As a hypothetical example: 1. In a 20 hour period 3" sleet falls with 1.00" liquid followed by 6" snow with 0.5" liquid. Total precip =1.50" Daily Snow measured = 9" 2. Same scenario but the snow falls first and gets beaten into unconsciousness by the sleet. (assuming for this exercise that the snow and sleet depth at end was 6") Total precip = 1.50" Daily Snow measured = 6" The exact same precip fell in both storms and its all still lying on the ground, but a casual observer would easily conclude that the event where 9" was measured was bigger than the 6" event. You can make inferences based on the liquid equivalent, but in the end you are losing information about the amount of snow and sleet that fell. In many ways snow depth and SWE are more important metrics, but snowfall is a different statistic and is what most of us are more interested in That being said, there were a lot of phase changes tonight. Thanks! I agree w you. My guess is that there will eventually be some sort of normalization of this snowfall data, as NHC with prior history etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 17, 2020 Author Share Posted December 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Why don't they have snow climo at POU anymore? ALY can answer, but my understanding, similar to many offices... can't find and train a reliable observer within the requirements of NWS CLI to be representative of previous POU observer location. Something like that. Takes time, effort, conscientiousness, paying attention to detail and maybe we don't pay enough. NWS has other resources including CoCoRAHS, CO-OP observers, NOHRSC, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said: how my 9" looking there? Pretty good actually I got more snow overnight but now it is sleeting. I'm not sure how much I got since I am laying in bed lol. Will check in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Pretty good actually I got more snow overnight but now it is sleeting. I'm not sure how much I got since I am laying in bed lol. Will check in the morning The new snow is not accumulating I just shoveled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Parts of upstate ny are getting 30 to 35 inches. Look at that banding up there. Heard 6 inches an hour . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Now back to heavy snow here in Brooklyn. What a interesting storm. It is going to be a blast shoveling sleet and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, wizard021 said: Parts of upstate ny are getting 30 to 35 inches. Look at that banding up there. Heard 6 inches an hour . Yep Speaking to my friend now in Albany. It is insane outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Hes too far SE of this band. Insanity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 hour ago, wdrag said: CP: I did not check, will try in an hour but if someone has the answer. The 6.5 " in CP in one day is largest since??? Thanks. There was a 7.0” figure in 1896. It was a 2-day figure (12/15-16) in the daily data, but all but 0.02” precipitation fell on 12/16. That may explain why all 7.0” was allocated to 12/16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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