nj2va Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Ill take what the HRRR is delivering man! Wow, that would be awesome for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Ill take what the HRRR is delivering man! You ain't kidding too bad 5 people have felt it important to tell us it ain't happening 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Some have mentioned why given the setup all the warm air filtered in. best setups for the MA are closed upper low, passing near or just south of us and also deepening. The CAD, while in place was marginal. Air being drawn into our region was not all that cold and it was shallow. Advection aloft came right off the mild Atlantic regardless of the low track and caused the changeover. These factors started showing up in the guidance Sunday night/Monday. At our latitude we need many pieces to come together just right to give a classic heavy snow setup. 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Ill take what the HRRR is delivering man! This looks nothing like the tropical tidbits map, which is far more conservative. Maybe pivotal weather's map is counting sleet as snow. It looks like mostly sleet for anyone east of, say, Mt. Airy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Some have mentioned why given the setup all the warm air filtered in. best setups for the MA are closed upper low, passing near or just south of us and also deepening. The CAD, while in place was marginal. Air being drawn into our region was not all that cold and it was shallow. Advection aloft came right off the mild Atlantic regardless of the low track and caused the changeover. These factors started showing up in the guidance Sunday night/Monday. At our latitude we need many pieces to come together just right to give a classic heavy snow setup. Is there a reason why this didn't close or it took so long to close off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 34 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: We never had a closed 850 low to cut off the flood of Altantic air. And the Bay and Atlantic coastal water SSTs are as warm as they're going to be for the rest of Dec as well as JFM. This is quite "climo" for mid December, at least with the absence of antecedent arctic air going in. For me it evokes the Dec 1992 storm, at least for PA (though not as intense). Also makes one appreciate Dec18, 2009, in how rare of an event that was early in the season. 11/11/87 was just a freak of nature. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: You ain't kidding too bad 5 people have felt it important to tell us it ain't happening Wonder who Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 37/34, Rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 It’s important to try not to hug the snowiest model solutions several days out. If you think about it, 120 hours out is 5 days and most pieces of energy that would come together for a MA storm may not even be over the U.S. yet. It’s a simulation of what could happen and with high uncertainty built into it. So many pieces to come together and if timing is off on one of them, a model can go from a 20” snow to a miss or rain just like that. Tempting not to grab on as a snow lover, but helps to avoid disappointment later on. It’s more important to understand synoptically the “why” vs the “what” and know how weather typically behaves here. A 10-20” snow sampled by the euro, cmc, and gfs at day 4/5 would be in the record books especially for the big cities in December. Records are called records for a reason, they don’t happen too often. Big snows in a model outside the favored climatology should be looked at with caution...biggest one here being the CAD. Yes the signature was there, but the source region of the airmass was modified and not very cold in depth. No closed low was big red flag. 50 degree Atlantic water with easterly flow aloft another flag. The ship began to sink. It’s tough to not latch on. We all feel it, Met or hobbyist, but we can’t overlook the factors that work against us. 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Is there a reason why this didn't close or it took so long to close off? Weakening upper level energy as it approached. Just made a post above. No phasing where we needed it 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 31 degrees / windchill of 19 15-20 mph gusts - its crispy out there Currently back to mainly snow, though. Albeit light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Is there a reason why this didn't close or it took so long to close off? Its a single stream shortwave which is a lot easier to flatten than someone that phases of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 52 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I think there was a post-storm model analysis thread that year. If the low doesn't end up shooting up the Bay, it would be really interesting to go back and see what happened/who the winners and losers were. Based on the current track, assuming I'm remembering right, the GEFS would actually get a fair bit of credit. HRRR too. Don’t leave out the NAM. It was the first one to sniff out the warmer more inland scenario. It also did great with the start times today. The 3k was awful. From its 50” total to the fiasco it pulled at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Don’t leave out the NAM. Yeah, NAM nailed Sandy! /s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: You ain't kidding too bad 5 people have felt it important to tell us it ain't happening Not sure I believe it either. My call here is maybe another inch. We will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 It was nice but most of us are done south of the Mason Dixon I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 This is why we pretty much don’t ever want to be in the jackpot 4-5 days out with this setup. 9 times out of 10, a Miller A ends up being further north and warmer at 850-925 than progged. DC jackpot 4/5 days out = PHL to NYC special a lot of the time Show me a Miller A potential with the jackpot in Charlottesville at day 4-5 and we’ll all be cooking in this forum. I really wanted a foot.... but Damn it I saw 2+“ per hour rates in mid December in Maryland and got just shy of 8” to show for it. No complaints here. One happy weenie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Rhino16 said: Yeah, NAM nailed Sandy! /s bingo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 45 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: People expecting an additional 3-4” from the pivot are overly optimistic. Ain’t happening. Sadly think your right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Really surprised to see snow mixing back in with the sleet. Nothing crazy or accumulating but a change in the upper levels no doubt. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Huge dendrites mixing in with the fine snow again. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 56 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I want some pivot love Only if it comes in hot and heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Really surprised to see snow mixing back in with the sleet. Nothing crazy or accumulating but a change in the upper levels no doubt. This is good to see. I just hit 30 degrees in Reisterstown and I have mostly ZR with a few pingers mixing in if the precip steps up the intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, ravensrule said: Only if it comes in hot and heavy. You measured in the Ville before heading home from work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Really surprised to see snow mixing back in with the sleet. Nothing crazy or accumulating but a change in the upper levels no doubt. Winds have begun to shif back to the NNE instead of the SE winds we saw this afternoon. Definitely more snow than sleet falling right now here 5 miles N of Union bridge station 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Final point to make is to not throw out the NAM if it might be outside it’s “wheel house”. At 48, 60, 72 hours we are not to accept its exact QPF or low position but more so it’s giving shorter range clues as to what might be happening with all the pieces sampled with the globals over the medium range, at lower resolution. The NAM outside its wheelhouse picked up on this pronounced warm injection, quick changeover. It’s QPF was way to high over the northern tier but we want features and potential evolution vs exact QPF amounts 2 to 3 days out. No forecaster in the weather business understands how to predict exact QPF, it’s like coastal flooding, smoke and mirrors at times and formulated with a blend of guidance. Focus on features and their evolution vs nailing down amounts and exact track. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucketts Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Freezing rain for a good 90 min. now. Roads and walkways are very slick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: This is good to see. I just hit 30 degrees in Reisterstown and I have mostly ZR with a few pingers mixing in if the precip steps up the intensity. Just spitting a flake here and there but something has to be changing around upstairs. ZR and sleet the past few hours here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: You measured in the Ville before heading home from work? Yes sir. I had my handy 25 footer with me. I didn't have a snowboard or any of that jazz but i measured in 5 areas around my office 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Really surprised to see snow mixing back in with the sleet. Nothing crazy or accumulating but a change in the upper levels no doubt. Should be switching back for us over the next few hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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