Scraff Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I mean I’m not kicking Happy Hour GooFuS out of bed... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Per the 18z GFS, the 0° isotherm at 850 mb never makes it north of I-70 or west of MD 97. The 700 mb temps are colder in fact. It appears that I-95 west never gets above -3°. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 hours ago, ovechkin said: Going to top out at 43-44-45, clouds already start to build, will keep lows well above freezing (inside the beltway) and then we see white rain for an hour. This show airs more than Shawshank Redemption on cable. Both shows end standing in the rain. Most of the day was 39-42 and your observation from 11am that this afternoon would torch because it was 40 at 11am was incorrect. Save the despondency for banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Scraff said: I mean I’m not kicking Happy Hour GooFuS out of bed... What about if she is eating crackers?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The 18z GFS actually matches Sterling's snowmap and warning/watch/advisory setup pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @mappy going to like the 18z GFS Go on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Scraff said: I mean I’m not kicking Happy Hour GooFuS out of bed... It is sssuuuuccchhhh a fine line for us. 12z was nearly identical actually. We're a long hike from heartbreak or happiness in one direction or another. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, mappy said: Go on... You never get above freezing. It looks like you stay snow the entire event. The mix line walks around the topside of I-695 but you flirt with probably a couple hours of solid snow rates and don't stop snowing until sometime just before sunrise Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: It is sssuuuuccchhhh a fine line for us. 12z was nearly identical actually. We're a long hike from heartbreak or happiness in one direction or another. One thing I do like is h7 and h85 certainly close off nicely and vector those SE winds away from us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: You never get above freezing. It looks like you stay snow the entire event. The mix line walks around the topside of I-695 but you flirt with probably a couple hours of solid snow rates and don't stop snowing until sometime just before sunrise Thursday. Awesome. I like that very much, thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 still not ideal for the cities, but it's not going to take much of a shift east and better cad to keep at least the close in burbs snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: You never get above freezing. It looks like you stay snow the entire event. The mix line walks around the topside of I-695 but you flirt with probably a couple hours of solid snow rates and don't stop snowing until sometime just before sunrise Thursday. I could live with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 18z GFS has a decent amount of 700-850 lift on it. Front end thump would probably give most of the posters west of I-95 more snow than they had all of last winter. Ha for me that would be 2" My bar for the storm is 4" Starting the evening off at 37/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: It is sssuuuuccchhhh a fine line for us. 12z was nearly identical actually. We're a long hike from heartbreak or happiness in one direction or another. Maybe a few more model cycles gets the cold to hold on just a bit longer for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 It's worth noting that in the CAMs (especially the NAM nest) that turn central and north-central MD over to sleet for a long duration, the warm layer is up around the 750 or 700 mb level. The GFS is typically very poor at capturing those warm layers if they're well above, say, the 850 level. PSU made a reference earlier to the March 2017 storm in which the GFS missed forecasting most of the sleet because it kept things much colder aloft. It isn't the same GFS now, but I would not be surprised if this weakness holds. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, mappy said: Awesome. I like that very much, thank you! I walk the line in Reisterstown and flip to IP or ZR for a time...that's fine with me. Another 30 miles SE and it would probably push you back into the 12"+ range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, high risk said: It's worth noting that in the CAMs (especially the NAM nest) that turn central and north-central MD over to sleet for a long duration, the warm layer is up around the 750 or 700 mb level. The GFS is typically very poor at capturing those warm layers if they're well above, say, the 850 level. PSU made a reference earlier to the March 2017 storm in which the GFS missed forecasting most of the sleet because it kept things much colder aloft. It isn't the same GFS now, but I would not be surprised if this weakness holds. Yeah, I said that about the 12z GFS as well. I don't buy the isothermal skew-t's it's showing. Think there's a much larger area of sleet between the snow and rain. And I think we're probably in it. Hoping we avoid much rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 finally into the 30s here downtown, probably the coldest we've been at sunset yet this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The 18z NAM 3k, GFS, and RGEM all advertise a quick, say 3 hour, CCB on the backside for Frederick, Carroll, Howard, Baltimore, and Harford counties. It's all snow with crashing temps that might deliver a surprise to the usual suspects. Not something to bank on, but it would be snow on top of IP/ZR which would be guaranteed to stick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 36.3/27.1 I have managed to stay out of the grey stripes for a while now. I fully expect a grass topper. 2" - 4" of sloppy goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 32 minutes ago, mappy said: That makes sense. I remember that March 2017 storm. Got some snow before a big thump of sleet. yippee. I mentioned march 2017 yesterday when things were trending the wrong way with this one. We were expecting a big dump and got a long period of sleet at the height of the storm. We did switch back to snow but that was during the day in march with temps in the low 30's so we only picked up up a couple more inches even though it snowed moderately for most of the day. At least with this storm if we get snow on the backside it will be at night with colder temps. If we can switch back to all snow by 3z then 3-6 is a real possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Seriously though, good luck tomorrow. I don't know your exact location but hopefully the front end produces for as many people as possible tomorrow. Thanks reaper man. My exact location is near Fail Town. But west of the fall line so whatever. I’ll get a little something to brighten the grass. Enjoy having you here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah, I said that about the 12z GFS as well. I don't buy the isothermal skew-t's it's showing. Think there's a much larger area of sleet between the snow and rain. And I think we're probably in it. Hoping we avoid much rain... Agreed on all counts. The GFS typically shows way too small of a small transition zone between rain and snow. I do think that eastern Howard may get a decent sleet mess out of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, high risk said: Agreed on all counts. The GFS typically shows way too small of a small transition zone between rain and snow. I do think that eastern Howard may get a decent sleet mess out of this. Here's hoping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Most of the day was 39-42 and your observation from 11am that this afternoon would torch because it was 40 at 11am was incorrect. Save the despondency for banter Despondency? Hardly- more humor, but your point is still a good one and well taken. You a great forecaster and know our climate well. My point was less about conditions at onset ( I think most agree snow at onset) vs how quickly we would turnover. Especially inside the beltway. Yet to be determined. Hope I am wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Good luck to everyone inside the Beltway and beyond. Moved from NW DC to Winston-Salem NC in 2017. Maybe a touch of ZR here, then a fun cold rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 31/23 in 21136 @ 627’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, ovechkin said: Despondency? Hardly- more humor, but your point is still a good one and well taken. You a great forecaster and know our climate well. My point was less about conditions at onset ( I think most agree snow at onset) vs how quickly we would turnover. Especially inside the beltway. Yet to be determined. Hope I am wrong! Let this post be an example of how we should all respond to ambiguity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Where’s the WB snow map? C’mon people 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Well, good luck to you all on the western shore, looking forward to my 1-2" of rain to pad my annual stats. Here is a useless ob. for the storm, 34.2/25.1- Easton, MD, 63'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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