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December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting


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Stuck at 33F for the last couple of hours here NW of Vienna - with driving rain.  Ended up with about 2" before the switch to sleet and then rain (not much sleet).

Can anyone give some insight on the timeline for the change back to sn and the prognosis for the region after the flip back..  Tks.  (intentionally avoiding the "mby" here)

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3 minutes ago, Mimiof2 said:

5:30 pm obs 29 degrees 

Sharpsburg, MD 420' ASL

Light sleet since about 4:45pm

Snow total a hair under 7".

Isnt this supposed to backfill as the low moves north??

Yes it is. Expect it to pick back up in next hour or so.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Don't look now, but SPC mesoanalysis has the surface low at 1000mb off the mouth of Chesapeake, well east of any of the warmer NAMs, eta. 

I think there was a post-storm model analysis thread that year. If the low doesn't end up shooting up the Bay, it would be really interesting to go back and see what happened/who the winners and losers were. Based on the current track, assuming I'm remembering right, the GEFS would actually get a fair bit of credit. HRRR too. 

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