December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting

[a.salt]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Enjoy it man. Might top 20 inches this winter if it all works out for you.

I hope!

[WxUSAF]

Now a true wintery mix.  Fzra, sleet, and even a few snowflakes.  That mix line on CC radar is the sleet/icy snow/fzra line for sure.  It's redeveloped over me the last 20 mins or so.  

[Maestrobjwa]

Measured 2" out back right after the changeover...surpassed last season's total. That was my new bar today...achieved, lol

[Kleimax]

Just now, notvirga! said:

Radar looks like sleet or zrain is coming up into Baltimore county now. Hopefully we keep sleet but idk. Looking out my window it’s still light snow. 3 plus inches I’m eyeballing 

I’d rather have zr than sleet personally. Way cooler

[aldie 22]

It wants to go back to snow but Phineas won't let it

[George BM]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Measured 2" out back right after the changeover...surpassed last season's total. That was my new bar for today...today's mission accomplished, lol

Yeap. 2" was my bar in Herndon. I measured 2.1".

Now rain w/ temp right at 32F.

[PhineasC]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

It wants to go back to snow but Phineas won't let it

You are going to get sleet and you are going to enjoy it, damn you!

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Kleimax said:

I’d rather have zr than sleet personally. Way cooler

I think in this case you want sleet since the temps are kinda marginal and rates too high for a nice ZR storm.

[Solo2]

Temp has actually dropped a bit even with lower rates...26.3.

[Interstate]

Wind has changed to the ESE... never a good sign

[WeatherQ]

Biggest Flakeage I’ve seen in years ... absolutely ripping white meteors in Elkton MD.

30F

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

But, but, but, the NAM said 50 inches of CCB snows for Camp David! They were gonna get pummeled!

That was also the 3k. No words can express how badly it did with this storm. The 12k is another matter

[jnis]

Got 4" here before the change over. 4" of snow is way better on the ground than on a snow map lol. All sleet and zr here now.

[jayyy]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Enjoy it man. Might top 20 inches this winter if it all works out for you.

No one cares that you see 150+ inches of snow a year in New Hampshire. You’re mad. Clearly. And if you’re not, you’re just a being a giant peen for the hell of it. Cut it out man. The only thing you seem to do is reply to people’s OBS and talk smack. Everyone knows we live in a borderline climo. Nobody actually thought it would snow 50” at camp David — that was a clown map on a model 3-4 days out.  Relax chief.  
 

anyway.. back to the snow -

29 degrees 

heavy snow 

over 6” 

 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

It wants to go back to snow but Phineas won't let it

Phineas is a hero!  

[midatlanticweather]

Seeing the rates offset the cold nose - can even see it on radar! 60% sleet and 40% snowballs currently - but snow is increasing!

 

[Ruin]

Temp down to 25 again never got to 30 today's high was about 27. 

[ErinInTheSky]

I'm going shovel before this stuff turns to snowcrete.

[09-10 analogy]

1 hour ago, a.salt said:

 Mesoscale Discussion 1854
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 PM CST Wed Dec 16 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast West Virginia...northern
   Virginia...western Maryland...and central to eastern Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 161857Z - 170000Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates around 2 inches per hour are expected
   to increase in coverage through the mid to late afternoon hours
   across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Heavy snowfall will likely
   continue into the overnight hours for portions of
   eastern/northeastern Pennsylvania.

   DISCUSSION...Precipitation continues to gradually increase in
   coverage across much of the Mid-Atlantic region within a broad swath
   of strong warm air advection between 850-700 mb (per recent RAP
   soundings and mesoanalysis). Mixed precipitation types continue to
   be reported within the precipitation transition zone along the
   Roanoke to Fredericksburg, VA line. While a wintry mix, including
   pockets of freezing rain, will continue in the near term, this zone
   should become more limited spatially through the mid/late afternoon
   hours. Further north, moderate, to at times heavy, snowfall rates
   have been observed (as evidenced by visibility reductions to
   one-quarter mile and observed snow rates around 2 inches per hour
   for some locations in northeast WV). 

   Heading through the afternoon, the low that is currently advancing
   northward along the Carolina coast will continue to deepen. As this
   occurs, mid-level winds will strengthen and begin to tighten the
   850-700 mb baroclinic zone and augment warm advection across the
   region. As isentropic and frontogenetical lift increase, snowfall
   rates will see a corresponding uptick in intensity. Lift within the
   dentritic growth zone and weak instability closer to the coast will
   help further augment snowfall rates. Widespread snowfall rates above
   1 inch per hour over the region are likely, and the potential for
   widespread snowfall rates exceeding two inches per hour will
   increase through 00 UTC as the potential for organized
   frontogenetical/deformation-driven snow bands increases.

Why does that remind me of ....

 

 

 

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Just measured: 5.75"

[Mrs.J]

Hearing some sleet here.

[clskinsfan]

Back to moderate snow with really heavy returns to the south. About to get crushed again. Looks like ZR is Harrisonburg but snow in Mount Jackson still. That should be really good for us up here. I dont even care if I flip at this point. I am going to end up with over 8 inches for sure. And have already passed all of last years snow. 

[Solo2]

First pingers hitting the windows now...good while it lasted!

[Warm Nose]

Just drove from extreme western loudoun to Dulles. All snow at home (800ft) and started to encounter mixing sleet in between round hill and purcellville. Leesburg was steady sleet and by the time I got to Dulles, it's all rain. 

[mdhokie]

Pouring snow at deep creek and looks to be sleet in Ellicott City.

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Back to moderate snow with really heavy returns to the south. About to get crushed again. Looks like ZR is Harrisonburg but snow in Mount Jackson still. That should be really good for us up here. I dont even care if I flip at this point. I am going to end up with over 8 inches for sure. And have already passed all of last years snow. 

That's awesome!! Really glad you guys are getting a huge hit out of this, radar looks loaded out there

[HighStakes]

Dark skies. S+. Havent measure in a while but looks like 6. Temp 26.

[North Balti Zen]

SN+ in Emmitsburg. Grass covered and the run at a foot underway I would guess. Gorgeous here.

 

[North Balti Zen]

I have no idea why those are uploading sideways. I am old.

[lpaschall]

19 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Snowing the heaviest it has all day in Westminster. 

It sure is. Just finished first shovel shift on driveway and it was completely covered again when we are done.