mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NAM is juicy though. over 1" of precip up my way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: I think most importantly it was an improvement from both 12k/3k at 12z. Can it muster up further support is the question. We want to see h7/h85 closing off and tightening the thermal gradient. Then if the low was to go a bit east on these gametime runs, we'd be in a pretty good spot. ive been hugging the GFS/Euro anyways. But it is a little relieving to see the NAM back off its super warm temps, at least up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: ive been hugging the GFS/Euro anyways. But it is a little relieving to see the NAM back off its super warm temps, at least up here Agreed. ~1.3" QPF to be exact on the 12k for you if you we're wondering. Around 1.5" on the 3k. It would be nice to see the 18z GFS continue what the 12z did but not bring the low over Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NWS updated snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, DDweatherman said: Agreed. ~1.3" QPF to be exact on the 12k for you if you we're wondering. Around 1.5" on the 3k. It would be nice to see the 18z GFS continue what the 12z did but not bring the low over Baltimore. its so weird that the nam is showing such a prolonged sleet fest IMBY when all the temps are below freezing. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 And at least we have the WRF-ARW2, lol 1 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3k is really jumpy with the surface low placement. It has about 1.5 QPF for the 81 corridor. So it did juice up a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, mappy said: its so weird that the nam is showing such a prolonged sleet fest IMBY when all the temps are below freezing. Am I missing something? Warm nose aloft...upper low not cutoff fully, flow aloft coming right off the Atlantic waters. Surface is cold, above the deck is above freezing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: Warm nose aloft...upper low not cutoff fully, flow aloft coming right off the Atlantic waters. Surface is cold, above the deck is above freezing. higher than 850? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: And at least we have the WRF-ARW2, lol I’m going with that one. Seems legit 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Warm nose aloft...upper low not cutoff fully, flow aloft coming right off the Atlantic waters. Surface is cold, above the deck is above freezing. One forecasting less I've learned from this event: if the NAM shows prolonged SE winds, trust where it's putting the mix line and under-forecast your snow amounts. It's always easier to revise upwards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: higher than 850? Sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: higher than 850? For us, 700mb temps never break above 0. There is a slight pocket between 750-800 that could present issues, but that was more prevalent in soundings around DC than our neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 My sister lives in Pocono Lake... I'll share pics of the utter destruction when she sends them to me to gloat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Eastern Loudoun and Northwestern Montgomery and Northwest Howard were added to WSW... everyone else in the WSWatch went to WWA -- including DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Sure Sure isn't an answer... I was asking a question. I looked at 850, 925 and surface temps and I only lose 850s for a few hours in the afternoon. Otherwise, the rest of the temps are below freezing. But I did not look at 700 or 500, hence me asking you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: For us, 700mb temps never break above 0. There is a slight pocket between 750-800 that could present issues, but that was more prevalent in soundings around DC than our neck. mmm maybe thats whats causing the prolonged sleet depicted on sim radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I’m going with that one. Seems legit 60% of the time, it works... every time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: Sure isn't an answer... I was asking a question. I looked at 850, 925 and surface temps and I only lose 850s for a few hours in the afternoon. Otherwise, the rest of the temps are below freezing. This is where you get the sleety frames for a few hours, hr 29 on 3k (750 looks around +2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 its so weird that the nam is showing such a prolonged sleet fest IMBY when all the temps are below freezing. Am I missing something?I asked same thing a while back. Maybe its a 2020 thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3k has the warm nose out my way around 750. The snow soundings for the 3 hours before we sleet are pretty money though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I’m going with that one. Seems legit Yea i can live with that. I think that is somewhere between “wild guess” and the CRAS on the meteorologist totem pole lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, DDweatherman said: This is where you get the sleety frames for a few hours, hr 29 on 3k (750 looks around +2) ahh, got it. thank you very much for answering my questions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: 3k has the warm nose out my way around 750. The snow soundings for the 3 hours before we sleet are pretty money though. Still thinking 12+ out here?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Eastern Loudoun and Northwestern Montgomery and Northwest Howard were added to WSW... everyone else in the WSWatch went to WWA -- including DC metro Nelson/Greene/Albermarle/Madison also got WSWs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Staged said: Still thinking 12+ out here?? Not if the 3k is right The track is actually better for us on the 3K than the GFS/Euro. So I dont know what to think anymore in all honesty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Yea i can live with that. I think that is somewhere between “wild guess” and the CRAS on the meteorologist totem pole lol Wonder what it would show of the global had greens in our county? It’s the NAMs cousin Eddie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: My sister lives in Pocono Lake... I'll share pics of the utter destruction when she sends them to me to gloat You really don’t have to do that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Wonder what it would show of the global had greens in our county? It’s the NAMs cousin Eddie Shitter’s full! Merry Christmas 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 lolz for DC 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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