40westwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: ... For example..on the euro there is a time about 3z when the low is literally on the east side of Baltimore and yet its snowing here. ... jeez.. this tells me that thermals were always one our side for this.. even in the middle of January and a big arctic high, we would still get dry slotted and drizzle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Warm Nose said: 38/17 800' here in Western Loudoun What town? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I'm not sure if this was ever mentioned in this forum, but this always struck me as a red flag that there would be an adjustment northwest. Goes to show you how subtle changes to features in the atmosphere could have significant implications downstream. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 21 minutes ago, D-Train said: When would we expect LWX to update their Warnings/Watches and the maps? Surprising that info is still up with the latest model runs. By 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, leesburg 04 said: What town? Just west of Round Hill 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 15 minutes ago, mappy said: If LWX is going to update, they will do it in the afternoon package (3pm or so). I imagine areas under Watches right now will go to advisories later tonight. They do not update based on model runs and their schedules. NWS Offices update at certain times every day. going from a watch to an advisory is the kiss of death... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Winter Wizard said: I'm not sure if this was ever mentioned in this forum, but this always struck me as a red flag that there would be an adjustment northwest. Goes to show you how subtle changes to features in the atmosphere have significant implications downstream. https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1338116171011395585?s=20 Someone did mention it the other night... saying it need to slow down or enter the WC at a higher latitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12k nam holds the surface freezing line SE of 95 through 18z tomorrow. not bad. And, edit, 850's spike above freezing between 19z-23z tomorrow. All the way up to M/D line, but they crash after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 29/23 Already a winter wonderland out there. Gonna be a ski whereever you feel like type of weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Warm Nose said: Just west of Round Hill I'm starting to snoop around for places to move next summer. I checked out Round Hill, Waterford, Paeonian springs, Hamilton and Purcellville on Saturday. Some real nice places 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm starting to snoop around for places to move next summer. I checked out Round Hill, Waterford, Paeonian springs, Hamilton and Purcellville on Saturday. Some real nice places Come to Funchester brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 There's a shift south with the low pressure on the 18z NAM. Has an effect for the northern regions staying frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NAM 12k is a decent front end thump 14-19z tomorrow...west of 95 favored areas. Could see 3-5/4-6 esp Loudoun to I-70/15/81 before mixing. DC area perhaps an inch before rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Come to Funchester brother It's on the list but it makes the commute to work a bit challenging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Compared to 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Anybody else get the feel that this is starting to slow down a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Not sure how it will translate but looks like an improvement at first glance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Not sure how it will translate but looks like an improvement at first glance im going to assume this is also snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Hagerstown is the place to be on the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Anybody else get the feel that this is starting to slow down a bit? Isn’t that bad? Don’t we want the initial stuff to start earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: im going to assume this is also snow And this... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: Compared to 12z: Drive that Low 50 miles SE and a lot of people would be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 35 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: It has been an incredible drought for them out there. Looks like a great spot for this one though. Oh to be back in Lewisburg, PA for this one... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Drive that Low 50 miles SE and a lot of people would be happy this is so much better. That shows Still snow at Loudoun at 6pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not sure how it will translate but looks like an improvement at first glance It is...we got the trend we need for a late save...no more further westward adjustment to the track...and a continuation of the better mid level close/pass to promote a tightly wound system by cutting off the easterlies sooner. A more tightly wound synced up "phased" system at all levels will cut off the easterlies to the west of the low center and prevent that warm layer from blasting as far inland... But like i said we need the west trend of the track to stop for that to matter...if we can keep the track east of us AND get that trend to continue we could save a decent outcome here. Maybe no Ji level win but something most of us would take right now. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 the front end thump for those of us in Howard/Montgomery isn't nearly as good on the NAM nest 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Deck Pic said: 42/22 same in west end (actually 41/20 now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NAM is significantly colder at 00z tomororow than the 12z run...like 2 degrees in Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, high risk said: the front end thump for those of us in Howard/Montgomery isn't nearly as good on the NAM nest Yep a lot of mix and rain... even up to the M/D Line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NAM definitely stopped the bleeding wrt to the west shift in track and thermals closer in even near the fall line. Gets borderline warning criteria to a lot of folks in CMD west of 95. The WAA thump is solid on this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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