December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Random Chaos said:

This looks ugly from HRRR (via https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_ncep_jet )
 

Just don't hold the handrail 

[MD Snow]

Current 850 and 925 mb temperatures

[40westwx]

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Don’t know if it matters but out high is much further south than modeled

I dont think I saw 1040 too many times either...

[Chris78]

26 in Smithsburg.

21 in cascade/blue ridge summit area per car thermometer on the way to work.  Over 1000' in elevation. 

[Buddy1987]

6 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said:

Seems like we are starting with a touch of sleet here in Charlottesville.

 

Boy howdy we better get some dynamic cooling or it's gonna be nothing but IP and ZR.

Radar looks like sh*t.. it’s like a convective summer time look with showers. Hopefully northern guys score and it congeals but we’re wasting way too much time down this way. No meatballs inbound from the southern crew.

[LP08]

Got to 28 here last night.  30/25 currently in N. Arlington

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Radar looks like sh*t.. it’s like a convective summer time look with showers. Hopefully northern guys score and it congeals but we’re wasting way too much time down this way. No meatballs inbound from the southern crew.

who has "radar looks like shit" on the bingo card?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, mappy said:

who has "radar looks like shit" on the bingo card?

And it didn’t take very long either. This might be a record

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

who has "radar looks like shit" on the bingo card?

I already knew going into composing the message someone would point it out hahahaha.

[aldie 22]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

And it didn’t take very long either. This might be a record

That ruin dude said it at 6am

[LP08]

I need that blocky pressure drop map that Mitch always used to post.

[The Ole Bucket]

Look I'm just trying to get something good happening in 2020, that's all.

And what's better than complaining about a storm.. AS IT'S HAPPENING?

In all seriousness though, I'm glad to be on this side of the mountain. Less frozen precip but the Blue Ridge is going to be not just a skating rink but a luge track.

Whatever happens this is the first decent storm to track in this area in more than a year, so that's fine with me. Part of the excitement.

[Disc]

53 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

A bit ahead of schedule it seems?

Yes. However, heaviest stuff still to the SW, so will see what happens when we get heavier rates. Warm nose on our RAOB this morning of around +1C above 850mb. 

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I already knew going into composing the message someone would point it out hahahaha.

Where's the storm lol. Bust city incoming today. 

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And it didn’t take very long either. This might be a record

a PA poster posted early this AM that radar looked bleak. lol 

[WxUSAF]

Not sure if everyone is just trolling but radar seems pretty good to me relative to what the meso models had at this time.

[Scraff]

Good morning everyone! It’s going to do something today in the DMV weather world . Yep. I said it. The “S” word. “Something” 

 

Eta: I always forget the best weenie radar. Who has a good one to use?  I do have Radarscope, but its not weenie enough for me. 

 

[mappy]

26/20

[The Ole Bucket]

Wet snowflakes apparently making their way as far south as Farmville.

 

 

[Disc]

Radar is fine. Lots of precip blossoming in NE TN and NW NC. There was nothing there this morning. All is going according to plan.

[deer]

31/24

Returns on the doorstep

[Herb@MAWS]

5 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I need that blocky pressure drop map that Mitch always used to post.

Unisys.com used to have a good 3-hr pressure change map. But no more .....

[nj2va]

The good news to those east of here is that you won’t waste hours on virga .  Once actual returns got over me, I went from flurries to light snow pretty quickly.

[dailylurker]

3 minutes ago, Disc said:

Radar is fine. Lots of precip blossoming in NE TN and NW NC. There was nothing there this morning. All is going according to plan.

Oh good. I was worried my flood watch wouldn't verify.

28 degrees and waiting on my 5 minutes of slush followed by 2 more inches of rain.

[Buddy1987]

Just now, nj2va said:

The good news to those east of here is that you won’t waste hours on virga .  Once actual returns got over me, I went from flurries to light snow pretty quickly.

Good luck up there brother. Hope you get crushed

[a.salt]

30/18 in Millers

[Hurricanegiants]

A few checks for today. Assuming we still want the faster onset? Still need the Low at this point to be as far south and east as possible? And is anybody concerned that we are getting temps at 30/31 before 8:00? That seems high already. 

[H2O]

no clue what temps are at home now.  was 30.4 at 5am.  Only good news for us I-95ers is that it got cloudy early.  Usually what happens is sun comes up, torches, clouds up and we fight a temp drop.  

Its whatever.  Not expecting much if any.  A couple hours of snow TV would be nice before the tropical thunder and downpours come later.

[40westwx]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

for sure. good spot to start at this morning, even if a little dry. 

the 20s and sleet obs in Blacksburg are a little worrisome to me.. but I think that will be overcome by rates/ evap cooling.. should be a good lesson in Mid Atlantic Climo either way.. 

[Eskimo Joe]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Not sure if everyone is just trolling but radar seems pretty good to me relative to what the meso models had at this time.

Yea, SPC's HREF (experimental or operational?) seemed to initialize the Quebec high better than most and is, as a result, colder down through I-95 and maybe even into Annapolis.