MillvilleWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 The HRRR has been consistent with the northern tier getting absolutely destroyed for several hrs today between 17-21z. Here's an example regional based sounding across the northern areas. This is a great way to get WSW criteria snow before any issues of mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 nice just to the south of PA would these bands be going nne ne straight north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Ruin said: nice just to the south of PA would these bands be going nne ne straight north? They should absolutely. This is a very good setup for MDT on north. I see 14-22" with local to 25" for you up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I'm gonna say it now. Someone north of I-70 between 20-00z is gonna see some absolutely insane snowfall. The 85H frontogen is beyond incredible for that area during that timeframe. This reminds me of some of the surprise overperformers in recent past with front end thumps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: They should absolutely. This is a very good setup for MDT on north. I see 14-22" with local to 25" for you up there Yea im pretty close to that area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 like i said before this is feeling like that juno winter storm a few years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 26.1/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 26/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Final... I hate how much sleet is progged to get northwest of I-95, but IMBY in Germantown I would think 3-5" of snow/sleet with downside 2" upside 6-7" is a good forecast. 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Guess we'll find out by 20z whether its the NAM or HRRR that will be right... 09z HRRR says 2-4" in DC by 20z 09z HRRR says its snowing in DC by 10am... by noon its pouring snow in DC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 17 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Final... I hate how much sleet is progged to get northwest of I-95, but IMBY in Germantown I would think 3-5" of snow/sleet with downside 2" upside 6-7" is a good forecast. Looks solid to me...thanks for sharing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 25/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I really hope that moisture field starts filling in more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 6z WB GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Scoured the Internet to find RAP data to get a tiebreaker for HRRR/NAM. RAP looks like the HRRR. https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, yoda said: Guess we'll find out by 20z whether its the NAM or HRRR that will be right... 09z HRRR says 2-4" in DC by 20z 09z HRRR says its snowing in DC by 10am... by noon its pouring snow in DC proper 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 9Z WB HRRR 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Oh baby lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 FWIW, it seemed like 09z HRRR at the end of its run was going to have a decent CCB or banding come roaring through before the storm pulls away from our area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I’m about to call it quits for another three hours before I continue HRRRcasting/wishcasting, but check out the current HP vs the modeled HP on this site:https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1Currently shows a 1038mb HP just north of the NY/VT border. Forecast for this time period seems to have been for a 1034mb. Dunno what this means for cold scouring/LP position later, just an observation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: NAM is horrible. Then it's probably still right. We do horrible with snow in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 Euro looked quite nice for me. Not sure I’d even ever change to rain. I’ll hug that and let it ride. Got down to 27 overnight and now 28/20. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 27.4 (current low) / 21 , 30.32" Local forecast calls for a high of 31 today in Columbia, so while on "the line", there's at least a chance to remain very icy today (as opposed to melty and wet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Couldn’t fall back asleep, so here we are. CAD push is slightly better on 10z HRRR. Looks like DC holds on to snow for an extra hour. Every little bit helps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 26/21...almost game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said: The HRRR has been consistent with the northern tier getting absolutely destroyed for several hrs today between 17-21z. Here's an example regional based sounding across the northern areas. This is a great way to get WSW criteria snow before any issues of mixing. very niiiiice 52 minutes ago, Ruin said: I really hope that moisture field starts filling in more. it will, please be patient. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Herb@MAWS said: 27.4 (current low) / 61 , 30.32" Local forecast calls for a high of 31 today in Columbia, so while on "the line", there's at least a chance to remain very icy today (as opposed to melty and wet). Dang. I think we might lose you all in Columbia today to liquification Good luck @WxUSAF @Scraff @osfan24 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 25/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Dang. I think we might lose you all in Columbia today to liquification Good luck @WxUSAF @Scraff @osfan24 I saw your 3-7” forecast! No takebacks!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Good morning all...I'm about to head up to Sykesville...keep me updated on the leesburg obs Ji and Leesburgwx. Probably a wash on totals but I at least get one perk in sykesville 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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