H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Gun to head we get 3" I say. 1 minute ago, Scraff said: That would honestly work at this point! I’ll set the bar there. My bar is also set at 3" Hmmmmm? What was that? Yes, I'll have the same as you guys. Adding up the two storms I will have 3" rain. Is your total in rain too? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Gonna trend our way from this point on. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The good old WSW and Flood Flash Watch... just two counties apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 hours ago, DDweatherman said: So, what do we look for now for some last minute respite? Well...I think the inside track is becoming pretty locked in. But there have been some developments with a better H85 and H7 pass that are causing a more tightly wound thermal gradient with this storm and could also make the possibility of some banding as the low departs real. If we were to get the west trend of the low to stop and perhaps adjust just a slight bit back east...but keep those factors...some places could still do well. It's possible. But one warning...the west trend of the low track continued with 12z guidance. And the mitigating factors I listed above are maxed out. For example..on the euro there is a time about 3z when the low is literally on the east side of Baltimore and yet its snowing here. A couple hours later that snow rotates through the north side of Baltimore with the low over NE MD. But if that track adjusts any further west...well nothing else is going to matter...you aren't going to get snow if you are UNDER the low or east of it. So we need both the better mid level depiction of the 12z guidance...but also we absolutely NEED the west trend of the low track to stop NOW. Get a slight east bump in final track, which is very possible...trends don't always continue right to the end...at some point guidance could pick up on reality...and maybe even over amplify some. Get that east adjustment by 50 miles and keep the better mid level look and maybe places closer to the city still reach warning criteria. 2 hours ago, wxbeaz said: you're analysis is always impeccable. are you saying this is a fail? Southeast of DC yes...this just isnt the right setup and I don't see anything that saves them. For 95...its getting tough but there is still an outside chance if those things I said above break right...namely we get a slight east adjustment to the track AND the better mid levels. For people NW of the fall line...very much still in the game for a decent event so long as expectations have be reset. Those crazy numbers we were throwing around 48 hours ago are gone. The track is just too far west for that...but we could still pull out a decent event if things break our way. But like I said above...its troubling that we continue to see a west shift every run on the guidance and we are completely out of any breathing room now. IF there is any further west adjustment then its a fail for everyone east of the blue ridge and south of PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 My bar has been set. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhatStorm Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 33/24 in Blue Grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primetime Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Hoping that my 925' of elevation in Hampstead will be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Well the 18z HRRR appears to have a decent thump for most if we wanna believe it...but we know it usually gets worse as it closes in. Temps are so so though but we know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 38F / 23 dp here just NW of Vienna @ 375' ASL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 41/22. White grass is the goal here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 41/22 in Annapolis. Decided I'm going to head back to State College for this storm - hoping they finally get crushed after being fringed so many times this decade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 40 degrees here in McLean at 451' ASL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Train Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 When would we expect LWX to update their Warnings/Watches and the maps? Surprising that info is still up with the latest model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Going to top out at 43-44-45, clouds already start to build, will keep lows well above freezing (inside the beltway) and then we see white rain for an hour. This show airs more than Shawshank Redemption on cable. Both shows end standing in the rain. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Bouncy House Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, D-Train said: When would we expect LWX to update their Warnings/Watches and the maps? Surprising that info is still up with the latest model runs. Never according to wxtrix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, D-Train said: When would we expect LWX to update their Warnings/Watches and the maps? Surprising that info is still up with the latest model runs. They updated the snow maps a little bit ago...like 1030 am. They downgraded totals from pervious map. Next full update is within the hour. So maybe another update then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, D-Train said: When would we expect LWX to update their Warnings/Watches and the maps? Surprising that info is still up with the latest model runs. They don’t hang on every model like we do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: 41/22 in Annapolis. Decided I'm going to head back to State College for this storm - hoping they finally get crushed after being fringed so many times this decade. It has been an incredible drought for them out there. Looks like a great spot for this one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Time to put the models away, pull out the protractor and measure the angle of the cold 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: It has been an incredible drought for them out there. Looks like a great spot for this one though. Didn't they fare rather well in the March 2017 storm? This storm feels like it has an uncanny resemblance to that one. In fact our airmass is probably way worse, but of course that's a March storm rather than mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 29 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I am going to pay attention to the dews tomorrow morning. The lower the better. HRRR (still out of its wheelhouse) gets DPs across the 81 corridor into the low/mid 20s. We’ll see how that trends as we get closer to game time. I’m pretty excited about the Euro for the western areas...it’s been the best look so far out here. Almost 1.6” QPF, all snow. Hope it holds for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: They don’t hang on every model like we do Unlike me who hangs out with every model. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Flying Bouncy House said: Never according to wxtrix. If LWX is going to update, they will do it in the afternoon package (3pm or so). I imagine areas under Watches right now will go to advisories later tonight. They do not update based on model runs and their schedules. NWS Offices update at certain times every day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Train Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: They don’t hang on every model like we do Except it looks odd to have 12-18" still sitting out there for Western Loudoun when we all know that's not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: It has been an incredible drought for them out there. Looks like a great spot for this one though. Yup, they haven't had over a foot of snow since February 2010 - always stuck too far northwest for the Nor'easters that crushed I-95. But climo had to win out eventually. You should be in a pretty good spot out in Winchester too. 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Didn't they fare rather well in the March 2017 storm? This storm feels like it has an uncanny resemblance to that one. In fact our airmass is probably way worse, but of course that's a March storm rather than mid December. We got 10.1". Solid but pales in comparison to NEPA. November 2018 was better with 11.5". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Time to put the models away, pull out the protractor and measure the angle of the cold did you tune up your barometer? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, D-Train said: Except it looks odd to have 12-18" still sitting out there for Western Loudoun when we all know that's not gonna happen. Im betting itll change within the hour...they typically do full upates at 3am and 3 pm and mid updates at around 10am and 10pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 HH NAM going to start the trend?! C’mon old friend! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristia Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 20 minutes ago, primetime said: Hoping that my 925' of elevation in Hampstead will be enough. I’m sitting at 1,000’ in Frederick County. First winter here after leaving BalCo and looking forward to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 38/17 800' here in Western Loudoun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now