KAOS Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Clearly this is the work of Satan... 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Must... sleep.... Inner thoughts:::: “but 6z is so soon....” I hope the next HRRR run is sexy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 18 minutes ago, Ji said: Eps?? I'd take 3 or even 4 inches and run... I now live just west of Fairfax now... so maybe I will get that extra few miles luck lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Hrrr keeps the center of the low off the coast no huge left turn like all the other models are depicting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Hrrr is best case scenario for tomorrow along i95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 WB 6Z HRRR 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 ^hrrr is furthest East with the low then any other guidance I’ve seen so far. Could be a blip but it’s been steady so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Lol 18.6 in Ashburn va 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 When is the next model run? 4:00 am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Hurricanegiants said: When is the next model run? 4:00 am? NAM is running right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol 18.6 in Ashburn va You have to subtract out the heavy sleet. The three maps are not cumulative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 NAM isn’t great, the low is a little East but not enough to cash in. Another problem is the NAM gets the precip here later and it quickly changes over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: You have to subtract out the heavy sleet. The three maps are not cumulative. That subtraction thing gets me every time. Oh well, 18.6 had me living in weenie world for 3 minutes. Back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 We both have our high end potential and low end potential. It’s all about when the precip comes in the earlier the snow the better we do. Off to bed and hope we can wake up to snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 NAM track is good. Stays off the coast. But it’s mid levels are awful. Blasts a warm layer way inland despite the further east track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 NAM track is good. Stays off the coast. But it’s mid levels are awful. Blasts a warm layer way inland despite the further east track. Awful run. Going with euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 WB 6Z NAM...going to be an interesting day tracking the low. Noticeable shift east in low position, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: NAM track is good. Stays off the coast. But it’s mid levels are awful. Blasts a warm layer way inland despite the further east track. Noticing that???? Does that make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 smh how are models such trash sometimes lol. farther off the coast but hey lets put a torch farther inland lol. Is the storm more powerful may explain why It did this? pushing waters are still warmish in the Atlantic so maybe that is why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 @psuhoffman Good to see the Nest coming in with its worst run of the whole storm so far. That was pretty ugly. Lower precip, blasts the boundary layer easterlies to the Alleghany front, and then misses any wrap around love on the back end. Good lord, I hope that's wrong for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention] Good to see the Nest coming in with its worst run of the whole storm so far. That was pretty ugly. Lower precip, blasts the boundary layer easterlies to the Alleghany front, and then misses any wrap around love on the back end. Good lord, I hope that's wrong for everyone. Also starts any snow much later like 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 WB 6Z NAM is bad...total precip down too...basically cancels storm east of mountains and south of MD state line with PA. I will hug the HRRR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Bad is an understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Hrrr or nam. What gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Ji said: Hrrr or nam. What gives? NAM is horrible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 You simply can't have models so close to an event be so varied. We need to do better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: @psuhoffman Good to see the Nest coming in with its worst run of the whole storm so far. That was pretty ugly. Lower precip, blasts the boundary layer easterlies to the Alleghany front, and then misses any wrap around love on the back end. Good lord, I hope that's wrong for everyone. The frustrating thing is the track is great. Stays offshore. But I think we’re stuck in a no win here. The runs with an offshore track have a worse mid level phase. That’s why they don’t tuck up the bay. But without closing off their mid level circulation even with an offshore track they blast the warm layer inland. The tuck up the bay runs have a much tighter structure due to a closer mid level circulation but the track to the bay screws us. That said the inside track with a better closed circulation/tighter thermal profile seems to be the better result if your NW of 95. It was disheartening to see both the 12k and 3k NAM pull the same identical garbage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 @MillvilleWx what has better scores at 12-24 hour lead the NAM or HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 The frustrating thing is the track is great. Stays offshore. But I think we’re stuck in a no win here. The runs with an offshore track have a worse mid level phase. That’s why they don’t tuck up the bay. But without closing off their mid level circulation even with an offshore track they blast the warm layer inland. The tuck up the bay runs have a much tighter structure due to a closer mid level circulation but the track to the bay screws us. That said the inside track with a better closed circulation/tighter thermal profile seems to be the better result if your NW of 95. It was disheartening to see both the 12k and 3k NAM pull the same identical garbage. The hrrr has similar track to nam but isn't doing this crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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