Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 One more tick NE and even the metros will be back in the game. A few miles can mean big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Frikin PUMMELED! How are you doing on temps right now? It’s a pre-mauling 22 out there over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 WB EURO low position did shift east slightly compared to 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 It's not some huge run to run difference...the euro doesn't do that....But it is definitely more progressive and less amped than 18z. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Getting a better feeling after that run....The mix here looks to be rates dependent. I'll take my chances with a dynamic system but just 10-20 miles to my west looks to be a prime spot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB EURO low position did shift east slightly compared to 18Z. Slight, no doubt. However...a track on the Other side of the mouth of bay can make a decent difference for C MD and NoVa the low is both weaker and further east. Both positives for that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: How are you doing on temps right now? It’s a pre-mauling 22 out there over here 22 but my dew has climbed to 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 It was a shift east and better...but this low track is just comical for us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 My final call for the 81 Corridor. Harrisonburg to Woodstock - 5-10 Then ice Woodstock to Front Royal - 8-12 Some ice Front Royal to Martinsburg- 12-18 Very little ice Martinsburg to Hagerstown- 14-20 All snow 22/20 Dew point on the rise for some reason. Talk to you all tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 lol 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: My final call for the 81 Corridor. Harrisonburg to Woodstock - 5-10 Then ice Woodstock to Front Royal - 8-12 Some ice Front Royal to Martinsburg- 12-18 Very little ice Martinsburg to Hagerstown- 14-20 All snow 22/20 Dew point on the rise for some reason. Talk to you all tomorrow. Solid call. 22/20 here as well. Dews up 2 degrees. Meep. Sleep well sir, tomorrow comes the mauling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: lol Right? If that low tracked from NC due NE to its depicted location, we’d all be seeing 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 @psuhoffman - any shot the euro has that wrong and it doesn’t make the NW turn into the bay? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: lol I mean... Is a track like that really plausible/supported or might it be a little more muted in reality than the depicted "screw MA zigzag of doom"? What is causing the sudden turn NW only to correct ENE later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: @psuhoffman - any shot the euro has that wrong and it doesn’t make the NW turn into the bay? The preponderance of evidence says that’s about what happens. But I suppose there is enough random odd pieces of guidance that don’t that maybe there is that miracle chance. But that would be an awful big error for this range. Jan 2000 level fail considering the advancements in NWP since then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: I mean... Is a track like that really plausible/supported or might it be a little more muted in reality than the depicted "screw MA zigzag of doom"? What is causing the sudden turn NW only to correct ENE later? Also very curious if anybody can give some insight. Not saying it “cant” happen, per say, but I am very curious from a meteorological standpoint what would cause a fairly quick moving storm, in a progressive pattern, to take that sharp NW turn just to take another sharp turn NE. Wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: lol Welcome to 2020, where lows run wide receiver routes! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Welcome to 2020, where lows run wide receiver routes! Looking like marquis brown’s routes against the bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Honestly hrrr shows best case scenario for the metros front end thump then looks like a dry slot 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 It’s a ne move misread as n-nw then abruptly east instead of smooth and steady ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Welcome to 2020, where lows run wide receiver routes! Thing literally takes a 90 degree turn as soon as it hits the Atlantic off the Carolina coastline. What gives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: Looking like marquis brown’s routes against the bills Lol Hey, it worked the one time it mattered the most! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: It’s a ne move misread as n-nw then abruptly east instead of smooth and steady ne Wonder how that affects warming in the upper level on the model. That track NW has to be cranking 850s up the bay. If it took a steady NE track, I wonder if that would translate any differently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Lol Hey, it worked the one time it mattered the most! That’s what I’m saying! Wouldn’t be the first or last time a model got a track wrong by 30-50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: lol Does this have anything to do with the low from Ohio transferring energy and making it tuck to the coast more or? (I’m sorry if this sounds dumb I’m still learning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, jayyy said: That’s what I’m saying! Wouldn’t be the first or last time a model got a track wrong by 30-50 miles Was actually referring to Hollywood's route, lol But I'd love for the model to be wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 19 minutes ago, jayyy said: Thing literally takes a 90 degree turn as soon as it hits the Atlantic off the Carolina coastline. What gives It stopped for Jimmy's Seafood 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 The "zigzag of doom" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Zdudswx said: Does this have anything to do with the low from Ohio transferring energy and making it tuck to the coast more or? (I’m sorry if this sounds dumb I’m still learning) Thankfully folks here are great at answering questions...so ask away! (I know I always do, lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Eps?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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