jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Zdudswx said: This is the first time in awhile I truly don’t have a clue what’s gonna happen in my neck of the woods. Setting the bar super low here Not a bad idea. I think 2-5” is a good call for downtown Baltimore. I feel good about at least 2-3” with the front end thump being depicted on mesos and Hi res - Lollipop 4”They can usually sniff out WAA thump way better than globals can. Not sold on backend snows at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Euro just slightly warmer at h85 through 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, jayyy said: Not a bad idea. I think 2-5” is a good call for downtown Baltimore. I feel good about at least 2-3” with the front end thump being depicted on mesos and Hi res - Lollipop 4”They can usually sniff out WAA thump way better than globals can. Not sold on backend snows at this juncture. I agree with that! It’s just insane how tight the gradient is around here a 10 mile difference from giving my house a boom with 6in and a total bust with an 1”. I also agree the mesos are sniffing out exactly where the r/s line is gonna be. If hrrr verifies most of us will be extremely happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 4Z HRRR at 5pm. You need to subtract sleet from the snow totals. Thanks. Looks amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 HRRR is keeping the SLP further SE like the globals were a day or two ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Euro improved a good amount. Takes the low East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Zdudswx said: Euro improved a good amount. Takes the low East Well it did until hr23 when it did a massive jump NW with the SLP... so weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 The low no longer goes straight up the bay. Definitely an improvement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, caviman2201 said: Well it did until hr23 when it did a massive jump NW with the SLP... so weird Every model has been somewhat jumpy. We truly won’t know until it actually happens. It’s insane how much variance we have right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Euro has done this two runs in a row. It doesn’t make sense to me, at all. The pattern is fairly progressive, a ridge is pumping to the south... all conducive of a NE track, not NW. I must be missing something... HRRR track would be swell for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 WB 0Z EURO 7pm. Warmest panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Hi Rez Euro is 1.6 QPF in Winchester. All Snow. It was actually colder up top than 18Z. Gets sleet line up to Front Royal for a short period of time. It is a mauling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 After mulling over guidance for a bit, decided to make a final update to the forecasted snow for the area and where I think the max will occur. I did trim totals back for many, but I do think areas north of I-70 stay snow or sleet through the duration of the storm. The wrap around from the CCB when the 85H low develops and swings south of Rt50 will help tack some fresh powder on the typical suspects over the northern tier. 2-4" could be had from just that, so it'll be nice after changing to sleet for a while. Time to let it all play out. Here's my projected totals for snow/sleet: East of I-95 near Baltimore: 2-4" with max to 5"; will mix with sleet then change to sleet/rain for a time East of I-95 near DC: T-2" then changing to rain mid afternoon DCA: T-2" IAD: 3-7" BWI: 2-5" Eastern HoCo: 3-7" Western HoCo: 5-9" Southeast MoCo: 2-4" Northern MoCo: 4-9" Loudon: 4-8" with highest across western Loudon NoVA south of DC: T-1" Southern Carroll: 5-9" Northern Carroll (Westminster and north): 7-12" with local to 14" Southern Frederick County: 4-8" Northern Frederick: 8-14" with local to 16" Washington County: 9-15" with local to 18" Winchester: 8-14" with local to 16" WV Panhandle: 9-15" with local to 18" Southern Harford County: 4-9" Northern Harford County: 6-10" Southern Baltimore County: 3-7" Northern Baltimore County: 6-10" with local to 12" Southern PA from Chambersburg to Gettysburg: 10-16" with local to 20" Gettysburg to York: 9-15" with local to 18" Bullseye: Rt 99 in PA down to western MD, moving NE through Central PA into NE PA: 18-24" with local to 30" 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: Hi Rez Euro is 1.6 QPF in Winchester. All Snow. It was actually colder up top than 18Z. Gets sleet line up to Front Royal for a short period of time. It is a mauling. I’m salivating at that run here in west Carroll county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 WB EURO storm totals. Subtract other frozen/ liquid from snow map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB EURO storm totals. Subtract other frozen/ liquid from snow map. Woooof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Frikin PUMMELED! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 One more tick NE and even the metros will be back in the game. A few miles can mean big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Frikin PUMMELED! How are you doing on temps right now? It’s a pre-mauling 22 out there over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 WB EURO low position did shift east slightly compared to 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Getting a better feeling after that run....The mix here looks to be rates dependent. I'll take my chances with a dynamic system but just 10-20 miles to my west looks to be a prime spot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB EURO low position did shift east slightly compared to 18Z. Slight, no doubt. However...a track on the Other side of the mouth of bay can make a decent difference for C MD and NoVa the low is both weaker and further east. Both positives for that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: How are you doing on temps right now? It’s a pre-mauling 22 out there over here 22 but my dew has climbed to 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 It was a shift east and better...but this low track is just comical for us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 My final call for the 81 Corridor. Harrisonburg to Woodstock - 5-10 Then ice Woodstock to Front Royal - 8-12 Some ice Front Royal to Martinsburg- 12-18 Very little ice Martinsburg to Hagerstown- 14-20 All snow 22/20 Dew point on the rise for some reason. Talk to you all tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 lol 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: My final call for the 81 Corridor. Harrisonburg to Woodstock - 5-10 Then ice Woodstock to Front Royal - 8-12 Some ice Front Royal to Martinsburg- 12-18 Very little ice Martinsburg to Hagerstown- 14-20 All snow 22/20 Dew point on the rise for some reason. Talk to you all tomorrow. Solid call. 22/20 here as well. Dews up 2 degrees. Meep. Sleep well sir, tomorrow comes the mauling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: lol Right? If that low tracked from NC due NE to its depicted location, we’d all be seeing 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 @psuhoffman - any shot the euro has that wrong and it doesn’t make the NW turn into the bay? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: lol I mean... Is a track like that really plausible/supported or might it be a little more muted in reality than the depicted "screw MA zigzag of doom"? What is causing the sudden turn NW only to correct ENE later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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