clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Ukie bumped east abit fwiw. ...looks to have slp over Delaware bay. All I have is this one 24 hour panel. Better HP over the top this run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: What are you thinking out our way? Didn't think we would be fighting the mix line but it looks as if we may be. I've thought all along this could be an 8-12" storm for us. 12-18" seems high in spite of the models consistently printing out those big totals. Nearly everything would have to go right to get there IMO. I expect to see sleet for a while with the heaviest precip tomorrow evening, but hopefully not for a long duration. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: What is the WRF ARW2 smoking? nothing. The hourly maps show a lot of sleet in the DC-NYC corridor, and the snow map simply applies a 10:1 ratio to the liquid amount being generated if it's snow OR sleet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I don't know how useful or useless GEFS ensembles are at super short range but it's crazy how much variation exists in the ensembles over the next 40 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: All I have is this one 24 hour panel. Better HP over the top this run too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No but in January with a colder airmass and less scolding water temps the low likely doesn’t track as far west. Won't debate that. Just saying there is more wrong with this storm now than the airmass. There is cold air around to tap. It isn't like it's 32 degrees in New England and Upstate NY right now. The track is just putrid for the I-95 corridor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said: I don't know how useful or useless GEFS ensembles are at super short range but it's crazy how much variation exists in the ensembles over the next 40 hours. I agree, there is still some wiggle room. We almost had more consensus a day or two ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: Oh man. That looks really nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No but in January with a colder airmass and less scolding water temps the low likely doesn’t track as far west. Now hang on...so the low is tracking west BECAUSE of warmer water temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Zdudswx said: I agree, there is still some wiggle room. We almost had more consensus a day or two ago Yeah. I mean, there are ensemble members that shut us all out, and there are ensemble members that look like the GFS 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, high risk said: As you noted, the core was changed, but most of the actual physics (except for the microphysics) were retained. I think that the PBL scheme plays a role in these warm layer cases. Ah new peramiterization same flawed math. I kid of course. If not for the euro the gfs would be the gold standard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: Yeah. I mean, there are ensemble members that shut us all out, and there are ensemble members that look like the GFS 3 days ago. It’s a tough call, gonna come down to a few miles. I don’t envy the tv meteorologists seems like pitchforks either way. I think we really need to cash in on a front end thump and hope for any backend snow as icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Zdudswx said: It’s a tough call, gonna come down to a few miles. I don’t envy the tv meteorologists seems like pitchforks either way. I think we really need to cash in on a front end thump and hope for any backend snow as icing. Yeah you know how we do here...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 25 minutes ago, Fozz said: You’d fit in well with the New England forum if you ever moved north. A lot of the guys love dirty jokes. I prefer being with the prudish bores in the Mid Atlantic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah you know how we do here...lol Always, but at least it keeps it interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 24/22 30.20 Expecting mostly snow at 1545' here in Augusta County NW of Staunton. Snow onset T minus 9 hrs and counting. Let's do this and get pummeled by fatties! eta: 23/21 15 minutes later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Is it normal to see so much variation among ensemble members this close to an event? I know some variation is normal but 1-2” of snow to slop versus 6+ in dc seems pretty wild this close to the event. Those 30-40 miles could mean everything for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 22/19 elevation: 500 ft nice to see dew points in the teens ahead of the event New WSW issued for 6-12” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Does the hrrr have any cold bias? It’s been very steady with giving the metros more of a front end thump probably the steadiest I’ve seen anything in the past couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Temps appear to mainly be cooler than modeled thus far. No model had me at 22 at midnight. HP also appears to be better positioned / a weeeee bit stronger on the UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Zdudswx said: Does the hrrr have any cold bias? It’s been very steady with giving the metros more of a front end thump probably the steadiest I’ve seen anything in the past couple days Not sure honestly. Think it may have either a wet bias or a tendency to see sleet as snow. that being said... it could be onto something. WAA with these classic Miller A’s tend to overproduce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 39 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: The high is not even in Maine yet and it’s 5mb stronger and that low gonna get shoved bit more east and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Hrrr gives everyone around i95 (even down to dc) about 4 inches or so before the change fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: The high is not even in Maine yet and it’s 5mb stronger and that low gonna get shoved bit more east and south The HP also hasn’t retreated as much by hour 30 as was being shown at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Honestly just waiting for the euro to go even further west with the system so we legit have every single card on the table 10 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I’ll hug this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 WB 4Z HRRR at 5pm. You need to subtract sleet from the snow totals. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Any other storm I’d have much more confidence in the outcome this close to the storm. The forecast looks pretty locked from 15 on west. However...in the C MD, N VA and the I 95 corridor, not so much. Models still differ a great deal at both the surface and the upper levels. Going to truly be a nowcasting situation with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, jayyy said: Any other storm I’d have much more confidence in the outcome this close to the storm. The forecast looks pretty locked from 15 on west. However...in the C MD, N VA and the I 95 corridor, not so much. Models still differ a great deal at both the surface and the upper levels. Going to truly be a nowcasting situation with this one. This is the first time in awhile I truly don’t have a clue what’s gonna happen in my neck of the woods. Setting the bar super low here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 4Z HRRR at 5pm 850s 0c is literally 10 miles SE of me. Kept all snow... barely. Best place to be for QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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