December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

If I can get 4-6 before a changeover and some backside snow, I’d be fine with that. I hate sleet but it’s better than rain I suppose.

I think that's a good forecast for your area.

[Warm Nose]

Surprised these haven't seen a cut yet. I'm guessing half these totals for areas east of BR

 

[jayyy]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I never said anything about warning level snowfall. Read my post again, slower this time, weenie.

I did. Saying “some snow” to sleet to snow (backend snow nonetheless) sounded to me like you were talking low totals. My apologies. 

And yes, I’m a weenie. A weenie who’s about to experience my first legit storm up in the northern tier of MD.... and my first legit shot at a foot in some years. This weenie is going to enjoy the crap out of it. 

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Thundersleet would be pretty cool 

i got caught in thundersleet once on a jog in NYC - it was NOT fun.  i remember running by another runner - we were the only people out - and we both looked at each other like, "something is deeply wrong with us lol"

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

27/19

You are in a really good spot Trix. We are tickling the mix line down here. You should be golden. 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I think that's a good forecast for your area.

8-12 would have been preferred lol 

[mattie g]

17 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Ask @mattie g what his call is for Harrisburg, PA.  I’m sure he has a prediction.

See what you did?

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

If I can get 4-6 before a changeover and some backside snow, I’d be fine with that. I hate sleet but it’s better than rain I suppose.

Only good thing about sleet is it makes the snow harder to melt. If we had a nice snowcover I wouldn’t mind a sleet storm to cover and protect it. 

[LP08]

29/24 here in Arlington

[jmc247]

I have out my snow boots on hand for tomorrow. I am going to go with 20 inches for my neck of the woods slightly north of Winchester.  

25 degrees currently north of Winchester. 

[mappy]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Only good thing about sleet is it makes the snow harder to melt. If we had a nice snowcover I wouldn’t mind a sleet storm to cover and protect it. 

For sure. Snow, sleet with snow on top should stick around for a few days I hope. You’ll do well though. 

[Dabuckeyes]

GFS tried to push Baltimore up to 40F tomorrow afternoon. As many said, it really comes down to now casting tomorrow afternoon. 

[clskinsfan]

New WSW just dropped at 10:30. Still going with 12-18 for the 81 corridor. Sticking with the GFS and Euro I suppose. 

[mappy]

27/21 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

I did. Saying “some snow” to sleet to snow (backend snow nonetheless) sounded to me like you were talking low totals. My apologies. 

And yes, I’m a weenie. A weenie who’s about to experience my first legit storm up in the northern tier of MD.... and my first legit shot at a foot in some years. This weenie is going to enjoy the crap out of it. 

I think warning-level snow is still in the cards for you. But there will be a period of mixed crap in the middle. It will just last for a shorter period of time in your backyard than near DC, where it will be the majority of the storm. But the evolution of the day will be the same for everyone. Snow, to mix, then back to snow. Just adjust the length of the intervals, factor in a potential dry slot, and take terrain into account. 

And I can assure you I am not jealous of your snowstorm. My new house averages 185" a year and is sitting at 2 degrees with 10 inches OTG right now. LOL

[mappy]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Snow pack will keep it real cold the next 3 nights + . No big melt 

Perfect to drive around and look at Christmas lights!

[NorthArlington101]

please

[mattie g]

@medmax...it was a bit of an inside joke. My kind take? South Central PA isn’t part of this forum and the majority of people here won’t see a significant storm. I’d wager that many of those people don’t care to hear about how much of a “pummeling” the mountain dwellers in the Blue Ridge receive, let along folks outside of our forum.

[Interstate]

Well we have Christmas Day. 

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said:

GFS tried to push Baltimore up to 40F tomorrow afternoon. As many said, it really comes down to now casting tomorrow afternoon. 

Not sure you can nowcast your way into an 8 degree temp drop, however.

[jayyy]

Just now, pazzo83 said:

i got caught in thundersleet once on a jog in NYC - it was NOT fun.  i remember running by another runner - we were the only people out - and we both looked at each other like, "something is deeply wrong with us lol"

Grew up and lived in Rockland County NY (new city) for 30+ years. We had some EPIC thunder sleet during events over the years. Can still hear that pinging on my folks clunky metal 1980s AC window unit if I think about it. We used to get a lot of nor’easters where we’d see 3-6 inch snow on the front end followed by buckets of sleet and IR as the more elevated locations 20 min to my NW near bear mountain saw 2 feet.  

[HighStakes]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

For sure. Snow, sleet with snow on top should stick around for a few days I hope. You’ll do well though. 

Very tough forecast. I like your bar. After last year a 4-8 storm is a great way to kick off winter.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

Very tough forecast. I like your bar. After last year a 4-8 storm is a great way to kick off winter.

Absolutely! I’ll be happy with whatever falls. Gonna be hard to swallow through when you’re all snow the whole time while I sleet  

[medmax]

See what you did?

[PhineasC]

I'm cool with an extended sleet bomb here. Been years since we have had a good one. Let's go for it, better than rain. I think if this thing is going to over-perform near the cities, it will take that form. More sleet, less rain.

[clskinsfan]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Only good thing about sleet is it makes the snow harder to melt. If we had a nice snowcover I wouldn’t mind a sleet storm to cover and protect it. 

Any sleet that does fall will help set the glacier we will all have in our yards on Friday morning. 

[pazzo83]

36/24 downtown.  we might get below freezing eventually lol.

[DDweatherman]

Final Forecast for Posterity (Most likely in parentheses)

BWI: 2-4” (3”) 

DC: 2-3” (2”)

IAD up to leesburg 4-6” (leaning 4“)

FDK: 6-10” (8”) 

Westminster: 5-8 (6”)

HGR as well as OKV (Winchester): 10-15, closer to 10 at HGR, closer to 12 near Winchester 

Thinking a decent WAA slug and do like the short term trends on early arrivals on mesos. Our dews/obs as well as the current 850 scheme look respectable. Overall, I’m not bullish on backside love, but it’s gotten a lot more respect and the 0z GFS brings it very close to the M/D folk. There could be serious sleet with some actual accums thanks to the warm layer at the 750-800mb level N/W of 695 out on the 70 corridor (namely Hunt Valley to Eldersburg to Westminster to Frederick). These folks are going to stay below 32 (likely sub 30) most of the storm and the warm nose is elevated enough the low level cold will make Sleet much more a threat than any possible ZR. These are also the places most likely to get 1-2” on the backside with the potential for more if the chips fall correctly. 

Mix lane stops just shy of Winchester and HGR. 

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I'm cool with an extended sleet bomb here. Been years since we have had a good one. Let's go for it, better than rain. I think if this thing is going to over-perform near the cities, it will take that form. More sleet, less rain.

PD3 was mostly a sleet bomb for me in C'ville back in '03.  I guess one of the good things is it sticks around for a while.

[North Balti Zen]

A sleet bomb would be hella cool. Feels like all sorts of outcomes are on the table. Spin the wheel, and hope it doesn't land on 33 and rain.