Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,605
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting


WxUSAF
 Share

Recommended Posts

I know everyone here is looking for something to keep us in the game tomorrow. Living in the DMV for almost all of my life has shown me that winter storms around here (especially coastals) are pretty unpredictable.   All week I’ve known  that I could get anywhere from 1-12” IMBY depending on the Low.  At this point, 12” is not in the cards for me, but I’ve seen plenty of storms that have significantly over performed when everyone thought it was over.  Most of us find much of the fun in tracking winter storms. So whatever happens tomorrow, we had a good early storm to get us ready for a potentially eventful winter.  At least some of you will have plenty to measure tomorrow. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

21/17 in McHenry.  I actually wouldn’t be surprised if some sleet mixes in with snow tomorrow afternoon in McHenry...Euro/3k are both close to doing that but verbatim stay all snow.  Final call is 12-18”.  Upslope snow showers could add another 1” or so Thursday/Friday.  This has a good shot at being the biggest storm I’ve seen out there since we bought the house 4 years ago.

I’d wager the bullseye in the mid-Atlantic is likely going to be somewhere between Frostburg and Hancock into the WV panhandle.  

Just finished the 3 hour drive out here and it is COLD up at the top of wisp at about 3,000ft. Hoping to avoid any mixing tomorrow and enjoy the show!

  • Like 4
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, umdterps29 said:

Just finished the 3 hour drive out here and it is COLD up at the top of wisp at about 3,000ft. Hoping to avoid any mixing tomorrow and enjoy the show!

Can’t wait to get out there in the morning...enjoy the storm!  I’ll see you on the mountain on Thursday — I’ll be the 35 yo who sucks at skiing and is getting passed by 10 yos doing tricks on their snowboards.  

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m in Hershey. Yesterday was jackpotted here. Now I’m not sure what the hell to expect. Trend early in the day was westward. Now it seems more of an oscillation between models. Guess... we nowcast?

My prediction is 10-30” of some sort of mostly frozen precipitation.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, medmax said:

I’m in Hershey. Yesterday was jackpotted here. Now I’m not sure what the hell to expect. Trend early in the day was westward. Now it seems more of an oscillation between models. Guess... we nowcast?

My prediction is 10-30” of some sort of mostly frozen precipitation.

I’d go 1-30” just to be safe 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Zdudswx said:

There’s so much discrepancy just 12 hours out. Some mesos trending west, some East. No real consensus on anything 

There is pretty good consensus that areas east of I-81 gets some snow, then sleet/rain, and then a little snow on the backside. Totals will depend on the length of the front thump and backside snows. Places near DC will not get much snow. Don't be fooled by the snow maps. Most of them interpret sleet as snow and will be way off.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, mattie g said:

Should be great to go into the office in DC tomorrow. Everyone will probably be teleworking and I’ll be up on the 10th floor watching the cold rain fall to the ground as cold rain.

If your buildings tall enough, you may be able to catch a pellet or two before it melts from the rooftop.

 

I kid, I kid. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, medmax said:

I’m in Hershey. Yesterday was jackpotted here. Now I’m not sure what the hell to expect. Trend early in the day was westward. Now it seems more of an oscillation between models. Guess... we nowcast?

My prediction is 10-30” of some sort of mostly frozen precipitation.

Ask @mattie g what his call is for Harrisburg, PA.  I’m sure he has a prediction.

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

There is pretty good consensus that areas east of I-81 gets some snow, then sleet/rain, and then a little snow on the backside. Totals will depend on the length of the front thump and backside snows. Places near DC will not get much snow. Don't be fooled by the snow maps. Most of them interpret sleet as snow and will be way off.

Can smell the sour grapes all the way from here. :( Next time, friend. 
 

there will be plenty east of 81 who see warning level snowfall. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...