PhineasC Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, Solo2 said: Really cuts down the FDK to Westminster area totals... It's pretty clear what's happening, but let the football spiking continue in the ever-shrinking jackpot zone south of the Mason-Dixon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I guess it's nice to have temps at 30 degrees the night before a snowstorm inside the (DC) beltway rather than nervously watching 40 degrees weather. But that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Pummeled. And there is that Berkeley Springs/Hancock jack I was talking about earlier this week. Big step back for my parts. God I hope models are a) overplaying the warm nose and b) underestimating the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 That actually looks realistic When was this model run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 24.8/18 out here by McDaniel in Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The "pummeled" zone is getting rather narrow... Nearly every model run for 5 days, since Friday morning, has shown 10-20" from OKV-HGR. If this verifies 3-7" with some sleet it will sting a little, lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: It's pretty clear what's happening, but let the football spiking continue in the ever-shrinking jackpot zone south of the Mason-Dixon. I dont know what you expect me to do man. I am 12 hours from onset and a model is crushing me. I am gonna talk about it in a storm thread. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ugh that’s kinda a nightmare for my area That’s what I’m saying man. I’m over here in Union bridge worrying about the column big time. We may not be at a high enough latitude to avoid the impending sleet bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 30.0/20.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Can @psuhoffman explain this sounding. This is the back edge. Do we lose lift here? Looks like there’s no snow growth... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I dont know what you expect me to do man. I am 12 hours from onset and a model is crushing me. I am gonna talk about it in a storm thread. Be thrilled man. You deserve it. We all do. And everyone knows if they were likely the jack 12 hours before a big event, they’d be saying the same. Do you brother. This is a cut throat hobby and you are MORE than accommodating to people’s IMBY concerns / questions during the tracking process. Enjoy the storm!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I just realized I never downloaded Bufkit on this computer. The 0z hrrr doesn't look like that much rain for D.C. honestly. We dry slot quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 18Z NAM could be a significant (and damaging) ice event for some out west along the Blue Ridge. Edited to correct model run time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Healthy backside band on the 3k. That’s the best thing I like about it. So, your like of big backsides is not a lie? Last I checked (hour + ago) it was 29. But I'm screwed with this one, down in Chuck C. Everyone else, enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Can @psuhoffman explain this sounding. This is the back edge. Do we lose lift here? Looks like there’s no snow growth... That's still snow, but not particularly efficient. Saturation cutoff is around -10C. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 if we could get the NAM track with the euro thermals we would be good lol 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, csnavywx said: That's still snow, but not particularly efficient. Saturation cutoff is around -10C. Thanks. Is that evident by the dew point crossing over there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Can @psuhoffman explain this sounding. This is the back edge. Do we lose lift here? Looks like there’s no snow growth... Definitely not a heavy snow sounding. Maybe that’s after that band moves through is the subsidence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Subtle changes on the 3k at 850....turns winds to NNE at 00z from roughly OKV to HGR. 12z and 18z still had screaming easterlies all the way back thru WV at this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 21/17 in McHenry. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if some sleet mixes in with snow tomorrow afternoon in McHenry...Euro/3k are both close to doing that but verbatim stay all snow. Final call is 12-18”. Upslope snow showers could add another 1” or so Thursday/Friday. This has a good shot at being the biggest storm I’ve seen out there since we bought the house 4 years ago. I’d wager the bullseye in the mid-Atlantic is likely going to be somewhere between Frostburg and Hancock into the WV panhandle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I know everyone here is looking for something to keep us in the game tomorrow. Living in the DMV for almost all of my life has shown me that winter storms around here (especially coastals) are pretty unpredictable. All week I’ve known that I could get anywhere from 1-12” IMBY depending on the Low. At this point, 12” is not in the cards for me, but I’ve seen plenty of storms that have significantly over performed when everyone thought it was over. Most of us find much of the fun in tracking winter storms. So whatever happens tomorrow, we had a good early storm to get us ready for a potentially eventful winter. At least some of you will have plenty to measure tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I dont know what you expect me to do man. I am 12 hours from onset and a model is crushing me. I am gonna talk about it in a storm thread. I hear the weather in New Hampshire is lovely, and the New England forum has some great posters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I would not be shocked to see some 18-20” snowfall totals from this zone if they can stay ALL snow. With potential QPF being around 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 If I could just get a decent front end thump and a couple inches of backside love I would be happy... Somebody call DCTeacherman. I heard thats how he likes to do events... Oh and don't forget the dry slot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: I would not be shocked to see some 18-20” snowfall totals from this zone if they can stay ALL snow. With potential QPF being around 2. Just follow the neon glow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: if we could get the NAM track with the euro thermals we would be good lol Weirder things have happened 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: 21/17 in McHenry. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if some sleet mixes in with snow tomorrow afternoon in McHenry...Euro/3k are both close to doing that but verbatim stay all snow. Final call is 12-18”. Upslope snow showers could add another 1” or so Thursday/Friday. This has a good shot at being the biggest storm I’ve seen out there since we bought the house 4 years ago. I’d wager the bullseye in the mid-Atlantic is likely going to be somewhere between Frostburg and Hancock into the WV panhandle. Just finished the 3 hour drive out here and it is COLD up at the top of wisp at about 3,000ft. Hoping to avoid any mixing tomorrow and enjoy the show! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Regardless of outcome, I’m just excited to see the sky puking fatties tomorrow before sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, umdterps29 said: Just finished the 3 hour drive out here and it is COLD up at the top of wisp at about 3,000ft. Hoping to avoid any mixing tomorrow and enjoy the show! Can’t wait to get out there in the morning...enjoy the storm! I’ll see you on the mountain on Thursday — I’ll be the 35 yo who sucks at skiing and is getting passed by 10 yos doing tricks on their snowboards. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 We have any Cumberland / Frostburg folks in here?! Good grief. I envy you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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