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December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting


WxUSAF
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However it turns out, when we had our best maps 2-3 days ago there was no low even to the west coast

Beside showing all scenarios models try to microscope things when they should be binoculars or telescopes. They try to predict very specific things for the east coast before Anything has showed up on the west coast or gulf coast and they rarely can do that successfully 

 

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Fully expecting a sleet bomb here in central carroll county before the storm makes its move NE. Some of our best storms have had sleet however. 

Yea, it’s not usually a big deal out your way. 2-4 hours of mix won’t ruin it for you. Dc on the other hand, 2-4 of mix might be all of our frozen lol. I got to look for properties in Leesburg 

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1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

How many miles would you estimate?

honestly, I might take it back. it oscillates back and forth. I still think the models are having trouble figuring out exactly where to place the MSLP. Not that I expect it to bail us out at this point. Anyways, these were the panels I was looking at. 

00z

1608163200-uJkNLNMWwCE.png

18z

1608163200-9aFoLdSshWw.png

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9 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Yea, it’s not usually a big deal out your way. 2-4 hours of mix won’t ruin it for you. Dc on the other hand, 2-4 of mix might be all of our frozen lol. I got to look for properties in Leesburg 

This will be my first winter up here in Union bridge with legitimate snowfall to track. The past year and a half has been brutal for all. Come to think of it, this my first big potential snowfall since moving here.
 

Cheers my friend. Hope you make out well! Have a feeling this will surprise.  

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1 minute ago, Zdudswx said:

Backend snow looks great ok 3k too! It has been on all the mesos and the gfs 

Backend action is not something you can count on but when it happens you are pleasantly surprised to get a couple inches of love.... Probably something they tell new prisoners.  

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

That’s a good map, might need to bump the 1” line NW closer to SE DC but nice job overall.  Enjoy the storm.

Agreed. Only thing i’d MAYBE change is the pocket near HoCo up to North Baltimore county... they could see more than 2-4 on the WAA thump alone 

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7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Hey brother.  Nice to see you post.  It’s supposed to snow then sleet then rain then snow.  If you weren’t tracking it. 

I have been lurking for the last 5 days.  I mowed my grass extra tight this weekend in preparation for our 2 inches. I don't want a single blade of grass showing by 4 pm tomorrow.  There is an unopened bottle of bourbon waiting to celebrate an over performer or to help forget an under performer.  Salute!

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