WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 30/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Better track this time on the NAM. Low is better organized and tracks mouth of bay to off OC it appears. I am on shitty maps so dont kill me if I am wrong. Maybe just slightly better track. But makes no difference . Thermals are still shot out this way. You’re ok but prob pouring mix at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Ephesians2 said: 37/18 in the City of Fredericksburg. Warner than I would have thought. 26/20 here. I look to my south for clues about my future. Prediction? PAIN 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3k nam coming in colder. More of a sleet than ZR sounding down this way and more snow than mix north of 64. Bodes better for people like @clskinsfan if taken at face value. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Warner than I would have thought. 26/20 here. I look to my south for clues about my future. Prediction? PAIN 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, PivotPoint said: Maybe just slightly better track. But makes no difference . Thermals are still shot out this way. You’re ok but prob pouring mix at some point Fully expecting a sleet bomb here in central carroll county before the storm makes its move NE. Some of our best storms have had sleet however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 NAM 12k has decent backend snow for almost the whole forum fwiw 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, BristowWx said: Warner than I would have thought. 26/20 here. I look to my south for clues about my future. Prediction? PAIN I deleted because there has to be a problem with my sensor, as most of the observations in the area on Weather Underground are under 30 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikes923 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 28/20 in Ellicott City 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, BristowWx said: Warner than I would have thought. 26/20 here. I look to my south for clues about my future. Prediction? PAIN Oh there is pain coming, but out 17 a bit in Stafford County, NW of FXBG it's 28/19 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Back side love (best kind) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 However it turns out, when we had our best maps 2-3 days ago there was no low even to the west coast Beside showing all scenarios models try to microscope things when they should be binoculars or telescopes. They try to predict very specific things for the east coast before Anything has showed up on the west coast or gulf coast and they rarely can do that successfully 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 We do flip for a couple of hours out here. But it is a decent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3k doesn’t get any WAA precip east of the blue ridge until 17-18z...that ain’t going to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 My final call Best of luck everyone! 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: I deleted because there has to be a problem with my sensor, as most of the observations in the area on Weather Underground are under 30 degrees. Yeah you are not 37. I looked at Shannon Airport and it’s 33/19 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Fully expecting a sleet bomb here in central carroll county before the storm makes its move NE. Some of our best storms have had sleet however. Yea, it’s not usually a big deal out your way. 2-4 hours of mix won’t ruin it for you. Dc on the other hand, 2-4 of mix might be all of our frozen lol. I got to look for properties in Leesburg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 26/24 in Haymarket. Nice drop from the 39F high today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Snowchaser said: My final call Best of luck everyone! Looks about right. I wouldn’t change anything. Nice work 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, PWC Split said: 26/24 in Haymarket. Nice drop from the 39F high today. Hey brother. Nice to see you post. It’s supposed to snow then sleet then rain then snow. If you weren’t tracking it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 29/27 AACo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Is it me to where the low may be doing wonky things on 0z or is hour 23 on 3k wayyy slower than previous run to where it has low over Hatteras and previous run northeast of Virginia Beach? edit:nvm next hour the low jumps way north and even west. Kind of a weird evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12z NAM took a tiny but appreciable jog east. That tiny jog will matter for someone. Probably not me. How many miles would you estimate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, mikes923 said: 28/20 in Ellicott City That’s wonderful news. What parts? Used to be my stomping grounds for a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: How many miles would you estimate? Looks like about 6...maybe 7. Less than 10 but more than 5 for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12z NAM took a tiny but appreciable jog east. That tiny jog will matter for someone. Probably not me. Might help me in western FFX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: How many miles would you estimate? honestly, I might take it back. it oscillates back and forth. I still think the models are having trouble figuring out exactly where to place the MSLP. Not that I expect it to bail us out at this point. Anyways, these were the panels I was looking at. 00z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 Healthy backside band on the 3k. That’s the best thing I like about it. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Backend snow looks great ok 3k too! It has been on all the mesos and the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Yea, it’s not usually a big deal out your way. 2-4 hours of mix won’t ruin it for you. Dc on the other hand, 2-4 of mix might be all of our frozen lol. I got to look for properties in Leesburg This will be my first winter up here in Union bridge with legitimate snowfall to track. The past year and a half has been brutal for all. Come to think of it, this my first big potential snowfall since moving here. Cheers my friend. Hope you make out well! Have a feeling this will surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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