PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Here come the radar hallucinations: Way more moisture then depicted this hour... look at that moisture convection to the gulf! (This is a bingo card, right) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: WRT to this event, even though there is ridging up over GL, its not what I would consider an "effective" block for this area. If it were, the 50-50 low wouldn't be hauling ass up into the NA. So in this case we really needed to thread the needle- to time everything perfectly, because that low and the associated confluence (and surface HP) are on the move. We really aren't getting the necessary compressed flow/suppression, which would have inhibited height rises out in front and forced the low track further south. We’ve had snow events work with less. You’re 100% that the look up top isn’t the stone cold killer perfect analog look. But it’s a good enough look to make a snowstorm realistic but we would need some help. The perfect look up top makes it where more factors can go wrong and still work. This setup we needed more to go our way. Not enough did. Even with the 50/50 vacating had that rogue SW not dug the trough west of us we probably got a decent snow event. But a few things went wrong and it’s Dec and the block wasn’t perfect enough to offset. But I would take this look all winter and roll the dice! Might not get a hecs but we would probably get a couple warning events with enough chances with a similar pattern imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Not a single hourly sounding show any mixing here on that run of the HRRR... No idea if it has a clue but what does look more likely is a nice thump on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 The question is has the HRRR ever scored a coup. It shows me 8 inches Kuchera. I’d give up drinking for 3 hours for that. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Already down to 23F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I cant see all of the levels on IWM. But the NAM is juicy as hell. It is a beatdown for the 81 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The question is has the HRRR ever scored a coup. It shows me 8 inches Kuchera. I’d give up drinking for 3 hours for that. I saw hrrr do well with 2016 storm. But even my goldfish got that one right, so eh I don’t own a goldfish, actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: I'm hugging HRRR. HRRR is best model. I'm breaking up with the Euro. Seriously though, yummu. WB HRRR. Usual caveat that these maps are misleading, but for me, my totals usually are much closer to these than the "Snow depth" maps as I tend to bust high in my microclimate in Germantown. Peep HoCo. Just as I alluded to earlier. Models keep showing this secondary jackpot JUST west of the rain/snow line where QPF jacks in that crazy meso band. Not sure this has any chance to pan out, but it intrigues me that hi res (hrrr 12k nam) keep showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @mappy Nam is looking good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 12z NAM took a tiny but appreciable jog east. That tiny jog will matter for someone. Probably not me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 nice autumn CAD at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Have we all given up on 50” at Camp David? 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We’ve had snow events work with less. You’re 100% that the look up top isn’t the stone cold killer perfect analog look. But it’s a good enough look to make a snowstorm realistic but we would need some help. The perfect look up top makes it where more factors can go wrong and still work. This setup we needed more to go our way. Not enough did. Even with the 50/50 vacating had that rogue SW not dug the trough west of us we probably got a decent snow event. But a few things went wrong and it’s Dec and the block wasn’t perfect enough to offset. But I would take this look all winter and roll the dice! Might not get a hecs but we would probably get a couple warning events with enough chances with a similar pattern imo. No doubt the fact that its mid Dec, warm ocean temps etc are major factors. For the lowlands esp we need a damn near perfect h5 setup, or at least some anomalous cold. This setup would likely have a different outcome if this were a legit Arctic air mass. But yeah I would take my chances even over here with this same general setup in another month. I agree the looks we are seeing on the means are good enough to keep the MA in the game moving forward, assuming they are correct. Also seeing hints of an EPO ridge popping again. We will see how that works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Might want to check that. Not looking great. Warm pushing west. Pretty different from last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Better track this time on the NAM. Low is better organized and tracks mouth of bay to off OC it appears. I am on shitty maps so dont kill me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: I saw hrrr do well with 2016 storm. But even my goldfish got that one right, so eh I don’t own a goldfish, actually That was funny. Yeah 2016 was an ex button 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Been on the fall line between 1” of snow and then heavy rain and 6” of snow and then a sleet mix for the past 4 runs. Definitely a now cast for the immediate i95 crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 0z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Better track this time on the NAM. Low is better organized and tracks mouth of bay to off OC it appears. I am on shitty maps so dont kill me if I am wrong. My nakey eye ball agrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 ^ looks like it depend what maps you use. Could easily be 33 and rain or ya could call it wintry mix at 21. Lot of people on the edge. DCA doesn't even get above 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 30/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Better track this time on the NAM. Low is better organized and tracks mouth of bay to off OC it appears. I am on shitty maps so dont kill me if I am wrong. Maybe just slightly better track. But makes no difference . Thermals are still shot out this way. You’re ok but prob pouring mix at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Ephesians2 said: 37/18 in the City of Fredericksburg. Warner than I would have thought. 26/20 here. I look to my south for clues about my future. Prediction? PAIN 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3k nam coming in colder. More of a sleet than ZR sounding down this way and more snow than mix north of 64. Bodes better for people like @clskinsfan if taken at face value. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Warner than I would have thought. 26/20 here. I look to my south for clues about my future. Prediction? PAIN 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, PivotPoint said: Maybe just slightly better track. But makes no difference . Thermals are still shot out this way. You’re ok but prob pouring mix at some point Fully expecting a sleet bomb here in central carroll county before the storm makes its move NE. Some of our best storms have had sleet however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 NAM 12k has decent backend snow for almost the whole forum fwiw 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, BristowWx said: Warner than I would have thought. 26/20 here. I look to my south for clues about my future. Prediction? PAIN I deleted because there has to be a problem with my sensor, as most of the observations in the area on Weather Underground are under 30 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikes923 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 28/20 in Ellicott City 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, BristowWx said: Warner than I would have thought. 26/20 here. I look to my south for clues about my future. Prediction? PAIN Oh there is pain coming, but out 17 a bit in Stafford County, NW of FXBG it's 28/19 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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