WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Usually around 500mb or a little under that. That is really surprising to me. I thought it would be much lower except in very high elevation snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: So basically this is the atmosphere going well out of its way to screw the MA to the greatest extent possible? Kinda impressive, really. Seems like it, and it's happened over and over again throughout the years. I think Boxing Day 2010 was the most vile example, but there've been so many others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, Negnao said: A low tracking to Baltimore is not the kind of track that produces snow in philly or NYC. Interesting that no matter how bad the track is they seem to score from this storm. If that track verifies I guarantee you Philly doesn’t get that much. Maybe a few inches. NYC won’t get prolific #s but their saved a reasonable storm because it does eventually hit the brick wall and turn due east. There is a block. But it exerted its influence ~100 miles too late for DC to get a big snow. CAPE pointed out, and was right, that the block is centered a little north of ideal for us. Still it was good enough to work if other things went right. We don’t need PERFECT. But the trough digs too far west and pumps ridging ahead of it and the 50/50 is just a little too far NE to prevent it. NYC is far enough north that it barely saves them. At least to an extent. The big totals will be in central PA and North of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 22 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Sure. Should show the surface temps too. I’m afraid anywhere DC proper SE is literally toast. I’m sorry. Wtf am I literally going to be 50 degrees on Thursday!? Burn it all down, can't we just permanently shift to warm climate at this point? At least I could BBQ comfortably then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I’m under a WWA and a flood watch. What a country! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 At least I’m not worried about ground temps. I still have snowcover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 18z Euro is awful for I-95'ers...and a step down for many inlanders tooPost a money shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: Seems like it, and it's happened over and over again throughout the years. I think Boxing Day 2010 was the most vile example, but there've been so many others. Comparing this to boxing day is apples and oranges. literally. Throughout the years there are many different atmospheric scenarios and outcomes, most of which favor NE for obvious reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: I’m under a WWA and a flood watch. What a country! I’d like to see an ice storm warning someday. Not very common. Or heavy freezing spray. Not seen to often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 34 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I picked the worst panel for each level. Between 7-10pm. WB That’s not horrible for Leesburg if that’s the warmest panel, surface might be a bit above freezing but banding would take care of that. Not as bad as I thought. 29 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Sure. Should show the surface temps too. I’m afraid anywhere DC proper SE is literally toast. I’m sorry. I call bs. Basically top corner of dc is 47 and ffx county at 32. That’s like maybe 30 miles in a straight line. No way it’s a 17 degree difference. No way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 What is the GFS v16? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Late to the party. Just got off work. Euro is out to lunch, IMO. How does it keep moving the low farther and farther west while barely changing snowfall totals? Something seems wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Come on MESOs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: At least I’m not worried about ground temps. I still have snowcover. I’m in Shrewsbury and there’s still snow on the ground too from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, jayyy said: Come on MESOs... Apparently you have not seen WRF-ARW...that’s a beaut! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If that track verifies I guarantee you Philly doesn’t get that much. Maybe a few inches. NYC won’t get prolific #s but their saved a reasonable storm because it does eventually hit the brick wall and turn due east. There is a block. But it exerted its influence ~100 miles too late for DC to get a big snow. CAPE pointed out, and was right, that the block is centered a little north of ideal for us. Still it was good enough to work if other things went right. We don’t need PERFECT. But the trough digs too far west and pumps ridging ahead of it and the 50/50 is just a little too far NE to prevent it. NYC is far enough north that it barely saves them. At least to an extent. The big totals will be in central PA and North of them. Thanks for the feedback and agree with all of the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Comparing this to boxing day is apples and oranges. literally. Throughout the years there are many different atmospheric scenarios and outcomes, most of which favor NE for obvious reasons. Agree. The spacing was just a little off. Even with the SW that dug the trough that was pointed out had that 50/50 been a little slower to vacate, but a huge gap opened up and this storm is taking advantage of the ridge to cut inside. It happens. It’s December. But I’ll say this...and I’ve been too busy to track this and post in long range so I took a break but the -AO NAO does not look like a transient think. I think we finally are getting our winter where blocking will be a significant feature. If we get a -AO winter and the pac isn’t a disaster (so far it’s meh but not awful) and still manage some awful single digit snowfall then the “somethings” wrong argument has more legitimacy. Blocking won’t guarantee we get great results but it should (absent a dumpster fire Pac) get us some snow events. If it doesn’t it’s gonna get ugly in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 0z HRRR looks like 3-5" of sleet/snow b4 rain for DC proper based on my untrained eye. sharp cutoff to the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 hour ago, DDweatherman said: Is it a nicer experience out there for the snow? I haven’t been up there in years and never experienced a snow there. It’s beautiful in the snow. And so many good hiking trails to enjoy in the days after or if you cross country ski, you can do that too. Models are keying in some upslope snow showers to take on an extra inch or two Thursday/Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Agree. The spacing was just a little off. Even with the SW that dug the trough that was pointed out had that 50/50 been a little slower to vacate, but a huge gap opened up and this storm is taking advantage of the ridge to cut inside. It happens. It’s December. But I’ll say this...and I’ve been too busy to track this and post in long range so I took a break but the -AO NAO does not look like a transient think. I think we finally are getting our winter where blocking will be a significant feature. If we get a -AO winter and the pac isn’t a disaster (so far it’s meh but not awful) and still manage some awful single digit snowfall then the “somethings” wrong argument has more legitimacy. Blocking won’t guarantee we get great results but it should (absent a dumpster fire Pac) get us some snow events. If it doesn’t it’s gonna get ugly in here. WRT to this event, even though there is ridging up over GL, its not what I would consider an "effective" block for this area. If it were, the 50-50 low wouldn't be hauling ass up into the NA. So in this case we really needed to thread the needle- to time everything perfectly, because that low and the associated confluence (and surface HP) are on the move. We really aren't getting the necessary compressed flow/suppression, which would have inhibited height rises out in front and forced the low track further south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Good news is I think many of the models have been hinting at least some sort of backside love, albeit not very significant. Even 1” would at least make the ground white (for most). I’ve seen the 3k have it, hrrr, hrdps, and a some of the gfs runs. I dunno. Trying to find a silver lining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 29/24 clear skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: Good news is I think many of the models have been hinting at least some sort of backside love, albeit not very significant. Even 1” would at least make the ground white (for most). I’ve seen the 3k have it, hrrr, hrdps, and a some of the gfs runs. I dunno. Trying to find a silver lining Best case scenario for those east of I-81 is a thump of a couple inches, dry slot drizzle/sleet, then a couple inches on the backside. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 27/21... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Best case scenario for those east of I-81 is a thump of a couple inches, dry slot drizzle/sleet, then a couple inches on the backside. 100%. That’s it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Best case scenario for those east of I-81 is a thump of a couple inches, dry slot drizzle/sleet, then a couple inches on the backside. Latest HRRR is basically showing this scenario, it appears. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Best case scenario for those east of I-81 is a thump of a couple inches, dry slot drizzle/sleet, then a couple inches on the backside. That is the post of the year right there. It would be awesome to have that happen. We can hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 HRRR looks solid at 0z for a lot of folks in the CMD/DC metro to get thumped at least with some snow initially. 6-8” across the folks north of 70 East to 83 in the “Hereford zone”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I'm hugging HRRR. HRRR is best model. I'm breaking up with the Euro. Seriously though, yummu. WB HRRR. Usual caveat that these maps are misleading, but for me, my totals usually are much closer to these than the "Snow depth" maps as I tend to bust high in my microclimate in Germantown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 NAM has a little bit better CAD. First flakes between 9 and 10 AM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now