KAOS Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2020 strikes again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Nevermind, someone posted it above and yes, it's a massive step back. A low over Baltimore City ain't it, my friends. Are the GFS and Euro really going to be this far apart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, joeride said: No matter where the euro puts the low this seems to be the same snow map over and over again. I call bs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Yikes that euro run is gross for the beltway crowd. March 2017 all over again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Thank you but doesn’t that still have DC in a 6” contour? It’s a torch at mid levels which is expected when a low tracks over Baltimore!!!! Those maps are lol. They have be at 16” but when I check the temps at all levels I can only find about .4 qpf that’s snow even up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: It is crappy to see considering the other models did move the SLP S/E. The 18z GEFS (take it with a grain) moved all the lows east of the 12z grouping (all to favorable locations) This seems to be one helluva sensitive setup. The euro is not written in stone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, leesburg 04 said: No matter where the euro puts the low this seems to be the same snow map over and over again. I call bs If I get 6 inches I will be ecstatIc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 CWG is so anxious about tomorrow they published tomorrow morning's forecast a few mins ago and then retracted it as an inadvertent publication. Poor folks are probably feel the same desperation many of the rest of us are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Weather Will said: If I get 6 inches I will be ecstatIc.... You got the temp maps Will? The different levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It’s a torch at mid levels which is expected when a low tracks over Baltimore!!!! Those maps are lol. They have be at 16” but when I check the temps at all levels I can only find about .4 qpf that’s snow even up here. To be honest, there has to come a time where you take a look at the consensus track for the LP center and the h5, steering, and the flow in a nowcast. That coupled together still makes it really hard to expect a low to go over Baltimore. Models seem to be struggling with the double barrel look and where the true MSLP is going to end up. As Wwxluvr said, this is a really sensitive set up, and I think that is reflected with regards to low positoning more than anything. The euro is showing some of the biggest "snow maps," but has the low the furthest west. That's after the NAM & GFS moved it SE @ 18z. I'm more focused on some of the short term indicators/mesoanalysis to see where our low pops and how the ML's react in response to that positioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: No matter where the euro puts the low this seems to be the same snow map over and over again. I call bs Because the surface isn’t all that affected and that map counts anything where any layer is somewhat close to freezing as snow. They are awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, RDM said: CWG is so anxious about tomorrow they published tomorrow morning's forecast a few mins ago and then retracted it as an inadvertent publication. Poor folks are probably feel the same desperation many of the rest of us are. Pretty easy forecast for DC. "Rain, heavy at times. Rain may mix with some sleet early. 34 degrees." 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 NAM leads the way. I bashed the hell out of it but it has looked pretty good to this point. It will lead us back to the promised land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You got the temp maps Will? The different levels? I picked the worst panel for each level. Between 7-10pm. WB 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Because the surface isn’t all that affected and that map counts anything where any layer is somewhat close to freezing as snow. They are awful. Which is bogus of course. But that also leaves the door open...one of the models has to be wrong with where they are putting the low, and there is signficiant discrepancy amongst Op's at the moment and even their ensembles. If the track of the GFS or even the NAM at 18z are correct but the euro has the thermal scheme correct, a lot of folks would be surprised at the outcome. The airmass is a lot more formidable than some have given it credit to this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: I picked the worst panel for each level. Between 7-10pm. WB Thank you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I have a question. At what pressure level are snowflakes formed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I have a question. At what pressure level are snowflakes formed? http://stream1.cmatc.cn/pub/comet/WinterWeather/oceansnowcase/comet/norlat/snow/micro_ice/1.5.natural_cloud_seeding.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: NAM leads the way. I bashed the hell out of it but it has looked pretty good to this point. It will lead us back to the promised land When the NAM screws DC over, it’s right. We know this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Ok I think some are over analyzing a run where the low tracks OVER BALTIMORE!!!! Hopefully it’s wrong. But come on. If the low actually tracks from Richmond to Baltimore to Wilmington anyone from 81 east and south of York PA is screwed. We know that. This isn’t that complicated. Just hope that track is wrong. If you get the 12k NAM or GFS track with the euro storm presentation we get a big storm 95 NW. unfortunately the best guidance at this range we have looks like poo. No one mentioned both the RGEM and HRDRPS look awful and had their worst runs at 18z. I am rooting for the gfs but...it’s the GFS lol. Other then the GFS and 12k NAM everything else I saw continued to degrade at 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Thank you Sure. Should show the surface temps too. I’m afraid anywhere DC proper SE is literally toast. I’m sorry. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 27/19...not bad 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok I think some are over analyzing a run where the low tracks OVER BALTIMORE!!!! Hopefully it’s wrong. But come on. If the low actually tracks from Richmond to Baltimore to Wilmington anyone from 81 east and south of York PA is screwed. We know that. This isn’t that complicated. Just hope that track is wrong. If you get the 12k NAM or GFS track with the euro storm presentation we get a big storm 95 NW. unfortunately the best guidance at this range we have looks like poo. No one mentioned both the RGEM and HRDRPS look awful and had their worst runs at 18z. I am rooting for the gfs but...it’s the GFS lol. Other then the GFS and 12k NAM everything else I saw continued to degrade at 18z. A low tracking to Baltimore is not the kind of track that produces snow in philly or NYC. Interesting that no matter how bad the track is they seem to score from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Negnao said: A low tracking to Baltimore is not the kind of track that produces snow in philly or NYC. Interesting that no matter how bad the track is they seem to score from this storm. Well from a high level it scoots out east from our latitude. You've seen on some models it crashes the column even for us, along with the mid-levels closing off. If the low trekked up over NYC, you wouldn't see the same results there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Negnao said: A low tracking to Baltimore is not the kind of track that produces snow in philly or NYC. Interesting that no matter how bad the track is they seem to score from this storm. That's because the low redevelops off the southern Jersey shore, crashing the heights in time for Philly and NYC, and then tracks east towards the benchmark, which is a classic track for the northeast cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I have a question. At what pressure level are snowflakes formed? Usually around 500mb or a little under that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Well PSU, we're down to the HRRR then huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: http://stream1.cmatc.cn/pub/comet/WinterWeather/oceansnowcase/comet/norlat/snow/micro_ice/1.5.natural_cloud_seeding.htm Thanks. Very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: That's because the low redevelops off the southern Jersey shore, crashing the heights in time for Philly and NYC, and then tracks east towards the benchmark, which is a classic track for the northeast cities. So basically this is the atmosphere going well out of its way to screw the MA to the greatest extent possible? Kinda impressive, really. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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