December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting

[ers-wxman1]

8 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

At what point does it start to sink in that maybe it's not everyone else that has an issue...maybe (just maybe) it's you?

Your knowledge and insight is clearly greatly appreciated. But your delivery veers between abrupt, condescending and dismissive in a way that seems almost calculated to annoy. Communicating and engaging with others is a critical skill to have on a public message board - especially when you have so much to offer in terms of expertise. 

Very well then I will be leaving the American weather forum. 

[SnowGolfBro]

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

 

So which is it? The gulf or off Jacksonville? The models have it in the gulf then jumping to the east coast.

Definitely something happening East of Jacksonville, but i also thought this was a gulf low pressure jumping to the coast.  

[WEATHER53]

Been dark about 40 minutes and temp has dropped 3 degrees to 36.5/22

Dont  worry about the thin clouds holding temps up, the 30.35 high and n-nw light breezes are controlling. 

We are probably going to be 32/25 at event start time and drop to 29/30 with the evap. I don’t think freezing rain will be an issue. I think honestly it’s just too hard to tell what’s going to happen between 1-9pm but I do think by 9 it’s all snow for DC and north and west . 

 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Very well then I will be leaving the American weather forum. 

I honestly don't think you should. You have great insight and value. If you disagree with people then just put them on ignore. 

[nj2va]

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

A lot of the most recent guidance has snow past me by 15z tomorrow.  

Yeah, they need to update that.  Didn’t realize how quick onset is starting to show up on recent guidance.  

[40westwx]

Just now, nj2va said:

Yeah, they need to update that.  Didn’t realize how quick onset is starting to show up on recent guidance.  

is this the start of good things to come.. the 2020 snow coup?

[ErinInTheSky]

I think we’ve got every bit of good news/bad news we are going to get from models and it’s onto now casting. I’m hopeful IMBY in Germantown I’m going to see something good. I tend to bust high here as much as I bust low. 10” is my hope, 6” will make me happy though. Less than that, I’ll be disappointed.

[PhineasC]

31/22

8/-2.4 up north LOL

Plenty of cold air up there.

 

[CAPE]

32.

I will be sure to post my cold rain obs, mild rain obs, and back to cold rains obs, with maybe a sleet pellet or a snowflake mixed in at the end! See it could always be worse than what ya get in your yard. Hoping for a mega dry slot!

[40westwx]

2 hours ago, mappy said:

maybe so, but that's how it goes. Watches go up first to get people's attention, then they either go to a warning or advisory depending on what's to come for each local. If you are a southerner expecting a warning, you're just silly. 

I still really think we make better than many expect.. it is just a hunch.. no real scientific justification.. I just think temps fall on the low side and everyone is surprised. The disappointing part is that we have had so many decrements over each model run, now a break in the right direction means like 4 inches for me down here in Catonsville.  I guess I should be happy if that happens.

[weatherCCB]

34/22

Bar set at 2-3” of snow/sleet

[40westwx]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

31/22

8/-2.4 up north LOL

Plenty of cold air up there.

 

with a developing low to our south.. doesnt that mean that the prevailing flow pushes that air in to our area at the low levels?

[Warm Nose]

32.5 / 16.3 

Ready for the Sleet-a-palooza 2020

[Wonderdog]

18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

 

So which is it? The gulf or off Jacksonville? The models have it in the gulf then jumping to the east coast.

We need that jump to be a little further east.

[NorthArlington101]

Just for fun... GEFS probs.

[stormtracker]

10 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Very well then I will be leaving the American weather forum. 

Or...and hear me out...don't leave and just adjust your delivery?   This isn't a binary choice here.

[adelphi_sky]

1 minute ago, 40westwx said:

I still really think we make better than many expect.. it is just a hunch.. no real scientific justification.. I just temps fall on the low side and everyone is surprised. The disappointing part is that we have had so many decrements over each model run, now a break in the right direction means like 4 inches for me down here in Catonsville.  I guess I should be happy if that happens.

I agree. It isn't like models haven't been wrong before. Especially when there is a 50 mile margin hanging in the balance. That's like asking models to predict a 50 mile wide bullseye for a  hurricane to hit 12 - 24 hours out. Could it happen? Yes. But the low could also scoot 50 miles further east when it matters most. It ain't over until the low is north of Philly!

[NorthArlington101]

Also: GEFS took a notable jog east. Does it matter? Probably not. But add it to the weenie list of things that could be taken as a good sign.

18z

12z

[a.salt]

31.0 degrees here in Millers with snow still on the ground from yesterday. Should keep things cold overnight.

[ers-wxman1]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Or...and hear me out...don't leave and just adjust your delivery?   This isn't a binary choice here.

Good point there. I’m not the best at reading people through text and social media. It’s often a challenge to communicate with it. Tough to read people this way, maybe I’m more old school. I can be brash and bold but for my line of work I have to be, but for here it’s different...these are not people making decisions to evacuate a coast line or deploy to a disaster where I need to be bold and hit a point home. This is more a hobby. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Also: GEFS took a notable jog east. Does it matter? Probably not. But add it to the weenie list of things that could be taken as a good sign.

18z

12z

every mile matters in this storm

[chris21]

22 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

40/22, Downtown DC

I’m at 36/18 in Mt. Pleasant. I have about 200 feet of elevation and am right next to rock creek park which may explain the difference?

[WxUSAF]

35/22 and temp dropping quickly

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Also: GEFS took a notable jog east. Does it matter? Probably not. But add it to the weenie list of things that could be taken as a good sign.

18z

12z

Froky is right!! 

[Warm Nose]

[IronTy]

35F in huntingtown.  Watches are up.   Flood watches, that is.  #TheBeatGoesOn

[aldie 22]

32/20 30.32

[Deck Pic]

1 minute ago, chris21 said:

I’m at 36/18 in Mt. Pleasant. I have about 200 feet of elevation and am right next to rock creek park which may explain the difference?

Yes...I lived in MTP from 2004-2012.  better elevation and less UHI.  

[baldereagle]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

32.

I will be sure to post my cold rain obs, mild rain obs, and back to cold rains obs, with maybe a sleet pellet or a snowflake mixed in at the end! See it could always be worse than what ya get in your yard. Hoping for a mega dry slot!

     34. 

                                        I would actually love to see the dry slot rather than 1-2 inches of cold rain; the state of my yard is, and pretty much has been for several months, a quagmire. Elevation here in southwestern Kent County MD is 16.69 feet and the Chesapeake Bay water doesn't help it snow, ever. I'll hopefully see more tomorrow than the .3 of slush that I recorded all last winter. lol                                                                               Good luck all!

[SnowGolfBro]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Also: GEFS took a notable jog east. Does it matter? Probably not. But add it to the weenie list of things that could be taken as a good sign.

18z

12z

At the very least it removed the inland running solutions.  That’s a start!