jayyy Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Something I'm not understanding... maybe someone smart can explain it to me. According to SPC Mesoanalysis, the SLP has basically taken a perfect track - the kind of track that had models spitting out ridiculous totals for us even along I95. The models (at least the runs over the past 24h) seemed to have nailed the event for I95 - quick thump, quick changeover, rain rest of the event, 1-3". What I'm not understanding is that the models came to that conclusion based on an SLP that tracked basically right over Delmarva. The SLP didn't do that - its at least 25-50 miles east of all guidance but we still ended up with the same result. Am I missing something? 850 low never closed off, allowing warm air to scream north. It’s early winter, barely below freezing, with relatively warm ocean waters compared to deep winter. If we had a closed 850 low south of here, this was an easy 12+ area wide 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: I wrote that up before any 0z guidance came out...the 12k did jump on board...not to the extent of the euro and rgem/hrdps but a significant move to that camp. The 3k still wants none of it. It took a tiny step, it sees it now...but it develops the banding to our northeast in PA. That is very possible...but so is the euro idea...or anything in between. The 12k NAM is also warmer...more of if would be mix...but that is a function of it not developing as robust a banding signature to cool the column. With the changeover coming W to E just west of us now, I’d favor better thermals occurring. Does the current swath now basically pivot to the NW/SE orientation? Or are we refiring more Precip again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Something I'm not understanding... maybe someone smart can explain it to me. According to SPC Mesoanalysis, the SLP has basically taken a perfect track - the kind of track that had models spitting out ridiculous totals for us even along I95. The models (at least the runs over the past 24h) seemed to have nailed the event for I95 - quick thump, quick changeover, rain rest of the event, 1-3". What I'm not understanding is that the models came to that conclusion based on an SLP that tracked basically right over Delmarva. The SLP didn't do that - its at least 25-50 miles east of all guidance but we still ended up with the same result. Am I missing something? The exact position of the surface low didn’t end up mattering as much as the upper air features. The 850 low, which is both broad and late developing, is basically over DC allowing the warm air to flood in. We always want an 850 track to the south of DC by a fair margin. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, Yeoman said: 12" lollies I am honored to have been trolled by Yeoman lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: You ain't kidding too bad 5 people have felt it important to tell us it ain't happening Holy crap that gives me like 6-8" in Germantown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: With the changeover coming W to E just west of us now, I’d favor better thermals occurring. Does the current swath now basically pivot to the NW/SE orientation? Or are we refiring more Precip again. Check that, now back to snow mixed in down in Westminster even before the good returns move back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, PWC Split said: Hopefully you get as much snow as DC and Baltimore did. If I don't, you'll find me tits up in the Merrimack river. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Think the dance has ended for us. Looks like from the motion on the radar that the low is really starting to scoot east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDphotog Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: 850 low never closed off, allowing warm air to scream north. It’s early winter, barely below freezing, with relatively warm ocean waters compared to deep winter. If we had a closed 850 low south of here, this was an easy 12+ area wide Is that why we didn’t see the usual pivot and spin on radar typical for winter storms? Or is that more of a different kind of storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 People are skidding all up and down Blunt Road near me and it's so unfortunate. That road is a car trap any time we have frozen precip. Also: Am I the only one that is fine with sleet fests? Like, seeing sleet just filled my heart with joy after the last 3-4 hours of rain. Getting a lot of sleet seems to add some good staying power. One of my most memorable storms was... was it 2017? With the absolute epic sleet bomb 3.5" of sleet in Gaithersburg. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The exact position of the surface low didn’t end up mattering as much as the upper air features. The 850 low, which is both broad and late developing, is basically over DC allowing the warm air to flood in. We always want an 850 track to the south of DC by a fair margin. By the way, look at the ridiculous lack of northerly wind barbs in this image. Southerly 850s in Erie! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am honored to have been trolled by Yeoman lol He would troll his own mother. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 My buddy lives in clearfield, PA and reported 3.8” in an hour. INSAAAAAANE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: 850 low never closed off, allowing warm air to scream north. It’s early winter, barely below freezing, with relatively warm ocean waters compared to deep winter. If we had a closed 850 low south of here, this was an easy 12+ area wide Exactly...ERS caught this early on and no one wanted to hear it but he was 100% right. December coastal with super warm SST and no closed mid level circulation is a big problem...nothing to cut off the easterly fetch to the north of the low. This could have worked in 2 ways...true arctic airmass, phased system. In the end we got the perfect track...the blocking did its dirty work...but other parts didn't come together. December is a HARD month to get a BIG snow here. We are almost better off with progressive wave type systems that cant scorch the mid levels with screaming easterlies. December is a good month to waste a good pattern unfortunately. But give me this look again...anytime between xmas and March 10...and I will take my chances. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Exactly...ERS caught this early on and no one wanted to hear it but he was 100% right. December coastal with super warm SST and no closed mid level circulation is a big problem...nothing to cut off the easterly fetch to the north of the low. This could have worked in 2 ways...true arctic airmass, phased system. In the end we got the perfect track...the blocking did its dirty work...but other parts didn't come together. December is a HARD month to get a BIG snow here. We are almost better off with progressive wave type systems that cant scorch the mid levels with screaming easterlies. December is a good month to waste a good pattern unfortunately. But give me this look again...anytime between xmas and March 10...and I will take my chances. Don’t look now but there is a slight pivot to a more N/S Orientation on our radar, and snow is picking up here with occasional pingers mixed in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Radar is definitely exploding but it looks like it's all advancing northeast rather quickly and the changeover line is lagging behind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: People are skidding all up and down Blunt Road near me and it's so unfortunate. That road is a car trap any time we have frozen precip. Also: Am I the only one that is fine with sleet fests? Like, seeing sleet just filled my heart with joy after the last 3-4 hours of rain. Getting a lot of sleet seems to add some good staying power. One of my most memorable storms was... was it 2017? With the absolute epic sleet bomb 3.5" of sleet in Gaithersburg. Nope I like it if it’s between choosing sleet or zrain because zrain practically never lives up to the hype. Also, one of my favorite all time storms was Valentine’s Day 2007 when we got 7 inches of sleet and froze solid the next day day and didn’t melt for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Think the dance has ended for us. Looks like from the motion on the radar that the low is really starting to scoot east. Agreed. But I am definitely up over 9 inches now for the event. I am not going to measure tonight. I'll do it in the morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Pouring snow similar to earlier in the day...radar looks to be eroding on the back edge fairly quick tho. We'll see if the lift N and eastward progress can slow like some of the mesos show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Weird quick downpour of sleet here, back to rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2020 Author Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Huh. Rain sleet mix in Arlington. Didn't expect anything frozen at 10 PM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 I think I'm about to get my last chance for back end snow as this band moves in east from Frederick. Looking at reports though it's just more sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, poolz1 said: Pouring snow similar to earlier in the day...radar looks to be eroding on the back edge fairly quick tho. We'll see if the lift N and eastward progress can slow like some of the mesos show. Yep starting to pick up and changeover to a majority snow here. The back edge has slowed w of HGR, but it’s still moving NE a bit. Cue @psuhoffmanto tell us where the lagging ULL energy is to spark off some good banding if it shall come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Sleet has made it here. Hopefully can get an hour of frozen and maybe some bonus snow overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 All sleet here near Glenmont at 9 I was the high of the day at 35.6 with rain and now 34 and all sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 I'm losing tree branches in my cul de sac. Got some blue flashes in the sky and power is bliping in Reisterstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Switched back to light snow in Frederick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Just rain Back to sleet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just flipped to all sleet. Big pellets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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