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December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting


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4 minutes ago, Zdudswx said:

Does the hrrr have any cold bias? It’s been very steady with giving the metros more of a front end thump probably the steadiest I’ve seen anything in the past couple days 

Not sure honestly. Think it may have either a wet bias or a tendency to see sleet as snow. 
 

that being said... it could be onto something. WAA with these classic Miller A’s tend to overproduce. 

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Any other storm I’d have much more confidence in the outcome this close to the storm. The forecast looks pretty locked from 15 on west. However...in the  C MD, N VA and the I 95 corridor, not so much. Models still differ a great deal at both the surface and the upper levels. Going to truly be a nowcasting situation with this one.  

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Just now, jayyy said:

Any other storm I’d have much more confidence in the outcome this close to the storm. The forecast looks pretty locked from 15 on west. However...in the  C MD, N VA and the I 95 corridor, not so much. Models still differ a great deal at both the surface and the upper levels. Going to truly be a nowcasting situation with this one.  

This is the first time in awhile I truly don’t have a clue what’s gonna happen in my neck of the woods. Setting the bar super low here 

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Just now, Zdudswx said:

This is the first time in awhile I truly don’t have a clue what’s gonna happen in my neck of the woods. Setting the bar super low here 

Not a bad idea. I think 2-5” is a good call for downtown Baltimore. I feel good about at least 2-3” with the front end thump being depicted on mesos and Hi res - Lollipop 4”They can usually sniff out WAA thump way better than globals can. Not sold on backend snows at this juncture. 

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Just now, jayyy said:

Not a bad idea. I think 2-5” is a good call for downtown Baltimore. I feel good about at least 2-3” with the front end thump being depicted on mesos and Hi res - Lollipop 4”They can usually sniff out WAA thump way better than globals can. Not sold on backend snows at this juncture. 

I agree with that! It’s just insane how tight the gradient is around here a 10 mile difference from giving my house a boom with 6in and a total bust with an 1”. I also agree the mesos are sniffing out exactly where the r/s line is gonna be. If hrrr verifies most of us will be extremely happy 

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After mulling over guidance for a bit, decided to make a final update to the forecasted snow for the area and where I think the max will occur. I did trim totals back for many, but I do think areas north of I-70 stay snow or sleet through the duration of the storm. The wrap around from the CCB when the 85H low develops and swings south of Rt50 will help tack some fresh powder on the typical suspects over the northern tier. 2-4" could be had from just that, so it'll be nice after changing to sleet for a while. Time to let it all play out. 

Here's my projected totals for snow/sleet:

East of I-95 near Baltimore: 2-4" with max to 5"; will mix with sleet then change to sleet/rain for a time

East of I-95 near DC: T-2" then changing to rain mid afternoon 

DCA: T-2"

IAD: 3-7"

BWI: 2-5"

Eastern HoCo: 3-7"

Western HoCo: 5-9"

Southeast MoCo: 2-4"

Northern MoCo: 4-9"

Loudon: 4-8" with highest across western Loudon

NoVA south of DC: T-1"

Southern Carroll: 5-9"

Northern Carroll (Westminster and north): 7-12" with local to 14"

Southern Frederick County: 4-8" 

Northern Frederick: 8-14" with local to 16"

Washington County: 9-15" with local to 18"

Winchester: 8-14" with local to 16"

WV Panhandle: 9-15" with local to 18"

Southern Harford County: 4-9" 

Northern Harford County: 6-10"

Southern Baltimore County: 3-7"

Northern Baltimore County: 6-10" with local to 12"

Southern PA from Chambersburg to Gettysburg: 10-16" with local to 20"

Gettysburg to York: 9-15" with local to 18"

Bullseye: Rt 99 in PA down to western MD, moving NE through Central PA into NE PA: 18-24" with local to 30"

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