jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, pazzo83 said: i got caught in thundersleet once on a jog in NYC - it was NOT fun. i remember running by another runner - we were the only people out - and we both looked at each other like, "something is deeply wrong with us lol" Grew up and lived in Rockland County NY (new city) for 30+ years. We had some EPIC thunder sleet during events over the years. Can still hear that pinging on my folks clunky metal 1980s AC window unit if I think about it. We used to get a lot of nor’easters where we’d see 3-6 inch snow on the front end followed by buckets of sleet and IR as the more elevated locations 20 min to my NW near bear mountain saw 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, mappy said: For sure. Snow, sleet with snow on top should stick around for a few days I hope. You’ll do well though. Very tough forecast. I like your bar. After last year a 4-8 storm is a great way to kick off winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 36/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: Very tough forecast. I like your bar. After last year a 4-8 storm is a great way to kick off winter. Absolutely! I’ll be happy with whatever falls. Gonna be hard to swallow through when you’re all snow the whole time while I sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 See what you did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I'm cool with an extended sleet bomb here. Been years since we have had a good one. Let's go for it, better than rain. I think if this thing is going to over-perform near the cities, it will take that form. More sleet, less rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Only good thing about sleet is it makes the snow harder to melt. If we had a nice snowcover I wouldn’t mind a sleet storm to cover and protect it. Any sleet that does fall will help set the glacier we will all have in our yards on Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 36/24 downtown. we might get below freezing eventually lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Final Forecast for Posterity (Most likely in parentheses) BWI: 2-4” (3”) DC: 2-3” (2”) IAD up to leesburg 4-6” (leaning 4“) FDK: 6-10” (8”) Westminster: 5-8 (6”) HGR as well as OKV (Winchester): 10-15, closer to 10 at HGR, closer to 12 near Winchester Thinking a decent WAA slug and do like the short term trends on early arrivals on mesos. Our dews/obs as well as the current 850 scheme look respectable. Overall, I’m not bullish on backside love, but it’s gotten a lot more respect and the 0z GFS brings it very close to the M/D folk. There could be serious sleet with some actual accums thanks to the warm layer at the 750-800mb level N/W of 695 out on the 70 corridor (namely Hunt Valley to Eldersburg to Westminster to Frederick). These folks are going to stay below 32 (likely sub 30) most of the storm and the warm nose is elevated enough the low level cold will make Sleet much more a threat than any possible ZR. These are also the places most likely to get 1-2” on the backside with the potential for more if the chips fall correctly. Mix lane stops just shy of Winchester and HGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: I'm cool with an extended sleet bomb here. Been years since we have had a good one. Let's go for it, better than rain. I think if this thing is going to over-perform near the cities, it will take that form. More sleet, less rain. PD3 was mostly a sleet bomb for me in C'ville back in '03. I guess one of the good things is it sticks around for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 A sleet bomb would be hella cool. Feels like all sorts of outcomes are on the table. Spin the wheel, and hope it doesn't land on 33 and rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Not sure you can nowcast your way into an 8 degree temp drop, however. True. My point is that you have some models keeping temperatures close to freezing and others want to have a brief warm surge. In other words...who knows what will happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I think warning-level snow is still in the cards for you. But there will be a period of mixed crap in the middle. It will just last for a shorter period of time in your backyard than near DC, where it will be the majority of the storm. But the evolution of the day will be the same for everyone. Snow, to mix, then back to snow. Just adjust the length of the intervals, factor in a potential dry slot, and take terrain into account. And I can assure you I am not jealous of your snowstorm. My new house averages 185" a year and is sitting at 2 degrees with 10 inches OTG right now. LOL Woah, woah. No one’s talking about jealousy over snowstorms my friend. We aren’t children. I went to college in Buffalo NY and lived there for roughly 18 months after I graduated from UB. I grew up in the northeast, so I definitely understand big snows as well. Used to see 3-4-5” per hour lake effect thunder snow bands, on the regular... I miss it. which is why I’m so excited to finally have a shot at warning level snowfall. It’s not about comparing backyards, I assure you Just happy to track something. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 24/14. Clear and calm. Baro has crested ~30.30” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 The low track being depicted now is one of the biggest middle fingers I can imagine for the I-95 corridor. The low curls inland just enough to screw the cities and then promptly hops back east to dump snow from PHL to BOS. I swear it feels like there is a higher power at work here. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Thursday temps for most of the forum is gonna be at or below freezing for a good chunk of the day. Whatever falls has a good chance at freezing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I'm cool with an extended sleet bomb here. Been years since we have had a good one. Let's go for it, better than rain. I think if this thing is going to over-perform near the cities, it will take that form. More sleet, less rain. Inclined to agree. Decent CAD in place with a storm tracking to the south - albeit closer to the coast than many of us east of 81 would like. Don’t see rain being a factor for points north and west of Baltimore. Sleet bomb impending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Down to 26F/24dp here just NW of Vienna. Normal for us to be cooler than the Tyson's UHI - just enough outside of that UHI to matter. Interesting how closely the frozen precip line on the HRR approximates the Fall Line, which was mentioned at several spots in the thread the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: New WSW just dropped at 10:30. Still going with 12-18 for the 81 corridor. Sticking with the GFS and Euro I suppose. Euro has better totals out your way. Gfs hasn’t had anywhere close to 18” in multiple runs. Given the warm air push and soundings I’ve been looking at all night, don’t see how you make it past 12”. I’d say 8-12” but either way it’s going to be a good event for you. Enjoy natures best show on earth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 21 / 19 It's cold. I hope we're not disappointed tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, WVclimo said: 24/14. Clear and calm. Baro has crested ~30.30” You are getting smashed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 28/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: 21 / 19 It's cold. I hope we're not disappointed tomorrow. You wont be. Not where you live now. Good things are happening for you tomorrow my friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: You wont be. Not where you live now. Good things are happening for you tomorrow my friend. I hope so. For all of us. For something like this is the reason I moved out here. Pretty certain that stephens city sleets a lot tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 30/21 here in Balt City and 27/20 for my target Emmitsburg tomorrow. At least stepping outside with the pup just now it "feels" like snow ahead of things for a change. Usually sweating getting the last few degrees down to 32 here - so being cold enough at start would be nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, jayyy said: Woah, woah. No one’s talking about jealousy over snowstorms my friend. We aren’t children. I went to college in Buffalo NY and lived there for roughly 18 months after I graduated from UB. I grew up in the northeast, so I definitely understand big snows as well. Used to see 3-4-5” per hour lake effect thunder snow bands, on the regular... I miss it. which is why I’m so excited to finally have a shot at warning level snowfall. It’s not about comparing backyards, I assure you Just happy to track something. Camaraderie time is over. It's a dick swinging contest now. 4 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I hope so. For all of us. For something like this is the reason I moved out here. Pretty certain that stephens city sleets a lot tomorrow. Where did you move? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 31/21. Kinda wonder how anyone lives in places like Green Bay when it gets this cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 28/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 We are getting slammed in our area, you guys looking good too. 12 - 18 Baltimore - Boston. DC is now 3 to 6 . 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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