nj2va Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: My final call Best of luck everyone! That’s a good map, might need to bump the 1” line NW closer to SE DC but nice job overall. Enjoy the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 24 crisp degrees out there. Woof 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Appears the 3k NAM gives a lot of people low end advisory snow on the backside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Zdudswx said: Backend snow looks great ok 3k too! It has been on all the mesos and the gfs Backend action is not something you can count on but when it happens you are pleasantly surprised to get a couple inches of love.... Probably something they tell new prisoners. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikes923 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: That’s wonderful news. What parts? Used to be my stomping grounds for a few years. Near Turf Valley. How bout you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 26/23 at 310 FT here in Bealeton, VA- already below last night's low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: That’s a good map, might need to bump the 1” line NW closer to SE DC but nice job overall. Enjoy the storm. Agreed. Only thing i’d MAYBE change is the pocket near HoCo up to North Baltimore county... they could see more than 2-4 on the WAA thump alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Even though it was pretty to look at, don't want a replay of this! That backend snow forecast was 2-4". We have close to 16"!!! Over 237,000 (BGE) customers out. January 26, 2011. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Hey brother. Nice to see you post. It’s supposed to snow then sleet then rain then snow. If you weren’t tracking it. I have been lurking for the last 5 days. I mowed my grass extra tight this weekend in preparation for our 2 inches. I don't want a single blade of grass showing by 4 pm tomorrow. There is an unopened bottle of bourbon waiting to celebrate an over performer or to help forget an under performer. Salute! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, mikes923 said: Near Turf Valley. How bout you? Used to live by benson branch park, right off Triadelphia road. About 10 mins from turf valley dont hold me to it, but I think you’ll do better than 2-4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Appears the 3k NAM gives a lot of people low end advisory snow on the backside. That's like 1 to 2 inches lol... but better than nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Agreed. Only thing i’d MAYBE change is the pocket near HoCo up to North Baltimore county... they could see more than 2-4 on the WAA thump alone If there’s a good WAA thump more like hrrr, euro, or gfs I could get 2-4” from that alone. Add in the backside band could put down another 1-3” and I’m looking at warning criteria. Or if the WAA craps out before thermal profile goes to hell and the backside doesn’t happen I’m left with a dusting of sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhatStorm Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 24/20 in Blue Grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 There's going to be a LOT of sleet with a warm nose/WCB of that strength. May also be some embedded thunder with those soundings showing a narrow ribbon of conditional upright instability getting entrained aloft. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 My final call:snowing: Best of luck everyone! I don’t think that the sleet ends up cutting into the snow totals once the column cools due to convection as this thing begins to wrap. I think these models are overplaying the mixing zone. It won’t be this broad. Otherwise nice job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, csnavywx said: There's going to be a LOT of sleet with a warm nose/WCB of that strength. May also be some embedded thunder with those soundings showing a narrow ribbon of conditional upright instability getting entrained aloft. Thundersleet would be pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Man. The 3k is even better. We might mix for less than an hour with sleet. But the soundings before and after that are beautiful. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 It's like rolling the dice, except the dice are more stacked against you with every mile east you are. I suppose I'll be happy if I have any snow on the ground when this thing is done. It will be more thrilling to see what kind of whacky weather this thing creates. Obs will be fun tomorrow. Good luck everyone. May the weather gods of low pressure surface tracks be with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, csnavywx said: There's going to be a LOT of sleet with a warm nose/WCB of that strength. May also be some embedded thunder with those soundings showing a narrow ribbon of conditional upright instability getting entrained aloft. TSIP? Imagine that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 There's going to be a LOT of sleet with a warm nose/WCB of that strength. May also be some embedded thunder with those soundings showing a narrow ribbon of conditional upright instability getting entrained aloft.Literally the opposite of what I expect after heading into the overnight wed. Mixing over to snow as this thing tucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Man. The 3k is even better. We might mix for less than an hour with sleet. But the soundings before and after that are beautiful. We're either going to be very disappointed or very happy come the early morning hours of Thursday. I have no idea which one it will be and were like 12 hours from the first flakes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Man. The 3k is even better. We might mix for less than an hour with sleet. But the soundings before and after that are beautiful. That’s awesome. You are going to score like a drunk prom date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Pummeled. And there is that Berkeley Springs/Hancock jack I was talking about earlier this week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Man. The 3k is even better. We might mix for less than an hour with sleet. But the soundings before and after that are beautiful. I'm headed to Bryce resort now. Im thinking they should do fairly well with this setup. I hope 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 The "pummeled" zone is getting rather narrow... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Pummeled That actually looks realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Pummeled Really cuts down the FDK to Westminster area totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikes923 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: Used to live by benson branch park, right off Triadelphia road. About 10 mins from turf valley dont hold me to it, but I think you’ll do better than 2-4” Oh, I’ll bet that was a good spot!! Howard county seems to have a decent amount of varying elevation. Folks down off Main St. or near Oella won’t fair nearly as well as those out off 108, Folly quarter, glen elg area etc. I’m hoping you’re right though. I’ll be happy with anything more than a few inches and some moderate/heavy snow falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: The "pummeled" zone is getting rather narrow... I dont care as long as it is over my house brother. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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