osfan24 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 For the smart posters, is there any chance this thing bumps east a bit and cuts off earlier? Say, it cuts off of of Virginia Beach? And what would a scenario like that mean? GEFS percentages looked surprisingly decent for me. Better than 50-50 shot at six inches and 20-30 percent at a foot lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, lester said: 34.4/25.0 here at 21214 That's one heck of an elevation... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Some post Christmas snow for you guys 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 All the stations near me are down to 33. Even a couple 32 degree readings. Really think we got a shot at keeping temps lower than progged. 33/22 in N Arlington near the FFX border, ~360ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: hot towers. Eyewall reconstruction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Some post Christmas snow for you guys Norfolk buried on Boxing Day again... how fitting 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 34.3/24 187 My ASL is 49, M, sitting forward in my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Some post Christmas snow for you guys Nice. A Christmas fringe job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 21 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: If the low takes that track along the white line, there will be a ton of surprised people come Wednesday PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, H2O said: Eyewall reconstruction puking snow. roads caved. All the buzzwords will be here tomorrow and I'll be around to witness it. I'm excited. I'm actually kinda serious. There's the off chance that we luck into a HUGE model error where every single model is 100% wrong. Right? 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, H2O said: Eyewall reconstruction Feeder bands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: puking snow. roads caved. All the buzzwords will be here tomorrow and I'll be around to witness it. I'm excited. I'm actually kinda serious. There's the off chance that we luck into a HUGE model error where every single model is 100% wrong. Right? Chance is there but this is DC. We all know how this one will go for us in the beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, jayyy said: If the low takes that track along the white line, there will be a ton of surprised people come Wednesday PM. updated version of that map updated at 12z here: https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/lowtrack_circles.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: puking snow. roads caved. All the buzzwords will be here tomorrow and I'll be around to witness it. I'm excited. I'm actually kinda serious. There's the off chance that we luck into a HUGE model error where every single model is 100% wrong. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: puking snow. roads caved. All the buzzwords will be here tomorrow and I'll be around to witness it. I'm excited. I'm actually kinda serious. There's the off chance that we luck into a HUGE model error where every single model is 100% wrong. Right? Models can absolutely all bust. Especially when we’re talking 50 miles either way. One slight miscalculation and the entire run can be toast with a thread the needle situation like this one. Let’s just hope it busts east, not west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Nice. A Christmas fringe job. Right where we want it 10 days out 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: puking snow. roads caved. All the buzzwords will be here tomorrow and I'll be around to witness it. I'm excited. I'm actually kinda serious. There's the off chance that we luck into a HUGE model error where every single model is 100% wrong. Right? January 2000 redux. Mark it off on a bingo board. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: updated version of that map updated at 12z here: https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/lowtrack_circles.gif Is it me, or is that track a lot better than 99.9% of models are depicting? A track like that would be conducive to much more than advisory snowfall for HoCo and that area just west of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, jayyy said: Is it me, or is that track a lot better than 99.9% of models are depicting? A track like that would be conducive to much more than advisory snowfall for HoCo and that area just west of 95 I thought that at first glance but the fine print at the bottom says lows historically verify... 75% of the time.. within those big yellow circles. So uh, that's a large error range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 34 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Or...and hear me out...don't leave and just adjust your delivery? This isn't a binary choice here. Why should he have to adjust his delivery. Maybe others shouldn’t be so sensitive. Or the mod (shall remain Unnamed) that takes issue with anyone that’s less than sugary sweet to her. Come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 My brother says he’s down to 34 in Columbia. It is definitely chilly out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I'm riding the WRF all the way to the bank on this one! I think it is onto something 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: puking snow. roads caved. All the buzzwords will be here tomorrow and I'll be around to witness it. I'm excited. I'm actually kinda serious. There's the off chance that we luck into a HUGE model error where every single model is 100% wrong. Right? Sure 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: I thought that at first glance but the fine print at the bottom says lows historically verify... 75% of the time.. within those big yellow circles. So uh, that's a large error range. Agreed. Just saw that too. Womp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillbilly Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: puking snow. roads caved. All the buzzwords will be here tomorrow and I'll be around to witness it. I'm excited. I'm actually kinda serious. There's the off chance that we luck into a HUGE model error where every single model is 100% wrong. Right? "Thump" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, gopper said: I'm riding the WRF all the way to the bank on this one! I think it is onto something It’s a good thing nobody’s making life decisions based off this map. Good grief. I’d give me left big toe to see 16” verify for you folks down in Baltimore ...Unless it’s onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, H2O said: Sure Doggy daycare training school for you...ya clod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Why should he have to adjust his delivery. Maybe others shouldn’t be so sensitive. Or the mod (shall remain Unnamed) that takes issue with anyone that’s less than sugary sweet to her. Come on Look, I know you got a thing with Mappy, that's why you're all over this. Just relax man. We're working this out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 18Z GFS Cobb total for MRB: 201217/0700Z 37 32006KT 28.7F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 12:1| 15.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.30 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, gopper said: I'm riding the WRF all the way to the bank on this one! I think it is onto something This is going to happen. Mark my words. lol, actually, don't. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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