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December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting


WxUSAF
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  On 12/15/2020 at 11:15 PM, H2O said:

Eyewall reconstruction 

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puking snow. roads caved.  All the buzzwords will be here tomorrow and I'll be around to witness it.  I'm excited.    I'm actually kinda serious.    There's the off chance that we luck into a HUGE model error where every single model is 100% wrong.    Right?

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  On 12/15/2020 at 11:18 PM, stormtracker said:

puking snow. roads caved.  All the buzzwords will be here tomorrow and I'll be around to witness it.  I'm excited.    I'm actually kinda serious.    There's the off chance that we luck into a HUGE model error where every single model is 100% wrong.    Right?

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Chance is there but this is DC. We all know how this one will go for us in the beltway. 

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  On 12/15/2020 at 11:18 PM, stormtracker said:

puking snow. roads caved.  All the buzzwords will be here tomorrow and I'll be around to witness it.  I'm excited.    I'm actually kinda serious.    There's the off chance that we luck into a HUGE model error where every single model is 100% wrong.    Right?

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Models can absolutely all bust. Especially when we’re talking 50 miles either way.  One slight miscalculation and the entire run can be toast with a thread the needle situation like this one. Let’s just hope it busts east, not west. 

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  On 12/15/2020 at 11:18 PM, stormtracker said:

puking snow. roads caved.  All the buzzwords will be here tomorrow and I'll be around to witness it.  I'm excited.    I'm actually kinda serious.    There's the off chance that we luck into a HUGE model error where every single model is 100% wrong.    Right?

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January 2000 redux.

Mark it off on a bingo board.

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  On 12/15/2020 at 11:20 PM, Paleocene said:

updated version of that map updated at 12z here: https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/lowtrack_circles.gif

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Is it me, or is that track a lot better than 99.9% of models are depicting? A track like that would be conducive to much more than advisory snowfall for HoCo and that area just west of 95

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  On 12/15/2020 at 11:23 PM, jayyy said:

Is it me, or is that track a lot better than 99.9% of models are depicting? A track like that would be conducive to much more than advisory snowfall for HoCo and that area just west of 95

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I thought that at first glance but the fine print at the bottom says lows historically verify... 75% of the time.. within those big yellow circles. So uh, that's a large error range.

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  On 12/15/2020 at 10:49 PM, stormtracker said:

Or...and hear me out...don't leave and just adjust your delivery?   This isn't a binary choice here.

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Why should he have to adjust his delivery. Maybe others shouldn’t be so sensitive. Or the mod (shall remain Unnamed) that takes issue with anyone that’s less than sugary sweet to her. Come on 

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  On 12/15/2020 at 11:18 PM, stormtracker said:

puking snow. roads caved.  All the buzzwords will be here tomorrow and I'll be around to witness it.  I'm excited.    I'm actually kinda serious.    There's the off chance that we luck into a HUGE model error where every single model is 100% wrong.    Right?

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"Thump"

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  On 12/15/2020 at 11:25 PM, gopper said:

I'm riding the WRF all the way to the bank on this one!  I think it is onto something ;)

image.png

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It’s a good thing nobody’s making life decisions based off this map. Good grief. I’d give me left big toe to see 16” verify for you folks down in Baltimore 

...Unless it’s onto something. ;)

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  On 12/15/2020 at 11:25 PM, PivotPoint said:

Why should he have to adjust his delivery. Maybe others shouldn’t be so sensitive. Or the mod (shall remain Unnamed) that takes issue with anyone that’s less than sugary sweet to her. Come on 

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Look, I know you got a thing with Mappy, that's why you're all over this.  Just relax man.  We're working this out. 

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