LeesburgWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:14 PM, SouthHillFrosty said: Some post Christmas snow for you guys Expand Norfolk buried on Boxing Day again... how fitting 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 34.3/24 187 My ASL is 49, M, sitting forward in my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:14 PM, SouthHillFrosty said: Some post Christmas snow for you guys Expand Nice. A Christmas fringe job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 10:56 PM, Warm Nose said: Expand If the low takes that track along the white line, there will be a ton of surprised people come Wednesday PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:15 PM, H2O said: Eyewall reconstruction Expand puking snow. roads caved. All the buzzwords will be here tomorrow and I'll be around to witness it. I'm excited. I'm actually kinda serious. There's the off chance that we luck into a HUGE model error where every single model is 100% wrong. Right? 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:15 PM, H2O said: Eyewall reconstruction Expand Feeder bands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:18 PM, stormtracker said: puking snow. roads caved. All the buzzwords will be here tomorrow and I'll be around to witness it. I'm excited. I'm actually kinda serious. There's the off chance that we luck into a HUGE model error where every single model is 100% wrong. Right? Expand Chance is there but this is DC. We all know how this one will go for us in the beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:18 PM, jayyy said: If the low takes that track along the white line, there will be a ton of surprised people come Wednesday PM. Expand updated version of that map updated at 12z here: https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/lowtrack_circles.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:18 PM, stormtracker said: puking snow. roads caved. All the buzzwords will be here tomorrow and I'll be around to witness it. I'm excited. I'm actually kinda serious. There's the off chance that we luck into a HUGE model error where every single model is 100% wrong. Right? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:18 PM, stormtracker said: puking snow. roads caved. All the buzzwords will be here tomorrow and I'll be around to witness it. I'm excited. I'm actually kinda serious. There's the off chance that we luck into a HUGE model error where every single model is 100% wrong. Right? Expand Models can absolutely all bust. Especially when we’re talking 50 miles either way. One slight miscalculation and the entire run can be toast with a thread the needle situation like this one. Let’s just hope it busts east, not west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:18 PM, clskinsfan said: Nice. A Christmas fringe job. Expand Right where we want it 10 days out 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:18 PM, stormtracker said: puking snow. roads caved. All the buzzwords will be here tomorrow and I'll be around to witness it. I'm excited. I'm actually kinda serious. There's the off chance that we luck into a HUGE model error where every single model is 100% wrong. Right? Expand January 2000 redux. Mark it off on a bingo board. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:20 PM, Paleocene said: updated version of that map updated at 12z here: https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/lowtrack_circles.gif Expand Is it me, or is that track a lot better than 99.9% of models are depicting? A track like that would be conducive to much more than advisory snowfall for HoCo and that area just west of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:23 PM, jayyy said: Is it me, or is that track a lot better than 99.9% of models are depicting? A track like that would be conducive to much more than advisory snowfall for HoCo and that area just west of 95 Expand I thought that at first glance but the fine print at the bottom says lows historically verify... 75% of the time.. within those big yellow circles. So uh, that's a large error range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 10:49 PM, stormtracker said: Or...and hear me out...don't leave and just adjust your delivery? This isn't a binary choice here. Expand Why should he have to adjust his delivery. Maybe others shouldn’t be so sensitive. Or the mod (shall remain Unnamed) that takes issue with anyone that’s less than sugary sweet to her. Come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 My brother says he’s down to 34 in Columbia. It is definitely chilly out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I'm riding the WRF all the way to the bank on this one! I think it is onto something 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:18 PM, stormtracker said: puking snow. roads caved. All the buzzwords will be here tomorrow and I'll be around to witness it. I'm excited. I'm actually kinda serious. There's the off chance that we luck into a HUGE model error where every single model is 100% wrong. Right? Expand Sure 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:23 PM, Paleocene said: I thought that at first glance but the fine print at the bottom says lows historically verify... 75% of the time.. within those big yellow circles. So uh, that's a large error range. Expand Agreed. Just saw that too. Womp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillbilly Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:18 PM, stormtracker said: puking snow. roads caved. All the buzzwords will be here tomorrow and I'll be around to witness it. I'm excited. I'm actually kinda serious. There's the off chance that we luck into a HUGE model error where every single model is 100% wrong. Right? Expand "Thump" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:25 PM, gopper said: I'm riding the WRF all the way to the bank on this one! I think it is onto something Expand It’s a good thing nobody’s making life decisions based off this map. Good grief. I’d give me left big toe to see 16” verify for you folks down in Baltimore ...Unless it’s onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:25 PM, H2O said: Sure Expand Doggy daycare training school for you...ya clod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:25 PM, PivotPoint said: Why should he have to adjust his delivery. Maybe others shouldn’t be so sensitive. Or the mod (shall remain Unnamed) that takes issue with anyone that’s less than sugary sweet to her. Come on Expand Look, I know you got a thing with Mappy, that's why you're all over this. Just relax man. We're working this out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 18Z GFS Cobb total for MRB: 201217/0700Z 37 32006KT 28.7F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 12:1| 15.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.30 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:25 PM, gopper said: I'm riding the WRF all the way to the bank on this one! I think it is onto something Expand This is going to happen. Mark my words. lol, actually, don't. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:18 PM, clskinsfan said: Nice. A Christmas fringe job. Expand It’ll adjust. We get a rim job for now but NW jog is almost a lock. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:33 PM, Interstate said: Expand Decent little spread there on temp vs dew. I’m down to 32.7 and dew of 27.7 with clear skies so trying to take advantage of that while it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 34/24 in havre de grace, not feelin it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 11:31 PM, stormtracker said: This is going to happen. Mark my words. lol, actually, don't. Expand this is your way of saying you think we're gonna boom a bit without committing to it... right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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