December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting

[jayyy]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Where’s the WB snow map? C’mon people 

Right?? Where are the clown maps to give folks false hope 24 hours before the storm? Sheesh! Haha.

All kidding aside... this storm has been the epitome of 2020 to track. 
 

[WxUSAF]

WBAL updated their snow forecast to a fairly reasonable look for anyone who cares.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, jayyy said:

Right?? Where are the clown maps to give folks false hope 24 hours before the storm? Sheesh! Haha.

All kidding aside... this storm has been the epitome of 2020 to track. 
 

Yes!!! I want all the false hope I can get.

[mattskiva]

36/24 here in SE Loudoun

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

So we gone for days with a map a minute and 18 hours before a storm starts and a man can’t get one? Geez 

[mattie g]

Sweet look on the 18z GFS! Didn’t give me any more snow, but it sure as hell have me more rain!

[HighStakes]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

WBAL updated their snow forecast to a fairly reasonable look for anyone who cares.

I thought so too. That's a decent attempt anyone can put out with this much uncertainty.

[NorthArlington101]

Averaging the stations near me and going 35/21.

Feel like it’s running a little colder than progged.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

So we gone for days with a map a minute and 18 hours before a storm starts and a man can’t get one? Geez 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

I haven't been rude with you at all. I asked a question, "above 850?" and you said "sure". That's not an answer and even after I asked for more information you decided to get cheeky with me suggesting I need a mute feature. That won't get you very far with me, sir.

His principal role is to be a snow hope buster. It’s for our own good and that sort of stuff. There have Always been one or two for decades. 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Feel like it’s running a little colder than progged.

Is this on the Bingo Card? 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

My man

[nj2va]

Here is LWX's latest thinking on start time...wouldn't be surprised if actual start time is on the earlier end of these. WAA generally come in quicker than forecast.

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Ok what happened?

[WinterWxLuvr]

There is a huge area of clearing heading this way. That certainly can’t hurt

[WxUSAF]

from @griteater

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Here is LWX's latest thinking on start time...wouldn't be surprised if actual start time is on the earlier end of these. WAA generally come in quicker than forecast.

Guaranteed to be earlier

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Here is LWX's latest thinking on start time...wouldn't be surprised if actual start time is on the earlier end of these. WAA generally come in quicker than forecast.

 

A lot of the most recent guidance has snow past me by 15z tomorrow.  

[Eskimo Joe]

@mappy, @a.salt, @HighStakes, @psuhoffman, 18z GFS COBB data keeps Westminster as all snow. 

[WEATHER53]

23 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Despondency? Hardly- more humor, but your point is still a good one and well taken. You a great forecaster and know our climate well. My point was less about conditions at onset  ( I think most agree snow at onset) vs how quickly we would turnover. Especially inside the beltway. Yet to be determined. Hope I am wrong! 

Yeah I jumped the gun on that a bit.

[Kleimax]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

How well does kuchera distinguish sleet from snow?

[LP08]

35/24 here in N. Arlington.  Also a beautiful sunset.  

[TowsonWeather]

1 hour ago, ers-wxman1 said:

I really am sad for you and empathize with your situation because your abrasive ness is like fire ants under the skin. 

At what point does it start to sink in that maybe it's not everyone else that has an issue...maybe (just maybe) it's you?

Your knowledge and insight is clearly greatly appreciated. But your delivery veers between abrupt, condescending and dismissive in a way that seems almost calculated to annoy. Communicating and engaging with others is a critical skill to have on a public message board - especially when you have so much to offer in terms of expertise. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

from @griteater

 

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Hurricane Hunters currently flying into the Gulf to collect data for the models

So which is it? The gulf or off Jacksonville? The models have it in the gulf then jumping to the east coast.

[mattie g]

How f**king annoying to have a low off of Jacksonville that’s going to give us rain. F that.

[Deck Pic]

40/22, Downtown DC

[Interstate]

33.1/21.5

[TowsonWeather]

40 minutes ago, high risk said:

      It's worth noting that in the CAMs (especially the NAM nest) that turn central and north-central MD over to sleet for a long duration, the warm layer is up around the 750 or 700 mb level.    The GFS is typically very poor at capturing those warm layers if they're well above, say, the 850 level.    PSU made a reference earlier to the March 2017 storm in which the GFS missed forecasting most of the sleet because it kept things much colder aloft.     It isn't the same GFS now, but I would not be surprised if this weakness holds.

Thanks for this. This is the kind of nuance that's super helpful for those like me that read these boards a ton but still have a fairly superficial understanding of how well different models handle those layers.

[Scraff]

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

How f**king annoying to have a low off of Jacksonville giving us rain. F that.

I’ll drink to that! The “F that” part I mean. Lol. Doesn’t seem right, but then again 2020...

[ovechkin]

3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Yeah I jumped the gun on that a bit.

All good. I’m still learning a ton. Temp drop off this evening off to a good start!  Will see when the WAA precip starts, where the LP tracks and how long the mid levels hold. I’m not confident, but that’s what makes this fun. Win some lose some, and try to keep things lighthearted and enjoyable. Except for my intense jealousy and hatred of PHL and NYC every time they get snow and we don’t.