WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Chips fall time to quote @Bob Chill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Currently 40/19 at IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 What a shame you shut the old thread so we all couldn't see Phins 9,000th post about Northern NH. 1 2 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Well, the only bright side to this is that the WAA slug has looked better today for a thump for a lot of folks in the sub, and the western crew/northern tier can probably get to warning criteria if it performs well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, ravensrule said: What a shame you shut the old thread so we all couldn't see Phins 9,000th post about Northern NH. You can see it, just can't make witty retorts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Like I said in the other thread. Pretty consistent storm track on all of the models at 12z. Mouth of the bay, up the Delmarva. Looks decent for those of us out west. No matter how bad Phineas wants it to get for us. in all seriousness. With that track I would expect to see ice out this way after the initial thump. Need to maximize the first few hours. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Well, the only bright side to this is that the WAA slug has looked better today for a thump for a lot of folks in the sub, and the western crew/northern tier can probably get to warning criteria if it performs well. Yeah, that's the takeaway for me today. ~10am-4 or 5pm hopefully will look and feel like winter IMBY so I'll get a nice @Jebman Jebwalk and with some luck, maybe even exceed last year's total snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: You can see it, just can't make witty retorts. Appreciate the assist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 There are always nowcast surprises and there is cold air around. Not like this is a 60s right before the storm deal. Someone will get a good snowstorm unexpectedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I know this won't pertain to everyone in the sub, but there's a little positive note on the 3km NAM which should be something to monitor in Hi Res trends over the next 24 hrs. Here is a snapshot of the 12 hr precip panel until 00z Thu for the Nest. I have drawn a rough outline of where the snow/sleet line is located based on model Composite Reflectivity and some sounding excavation. Anything north of the line drawn was actually all snow in this picture. Usual caveats of snow ratios aside, even with an ~9:1 ratio on the southern periphery of the line drawn, this is a WSW criteria event with over 10" in spots prior to any sleet shift. Another positive is the 85H low location overnight. The Euro, the NAM Nest, and GFS all have 85H close off to the south over VA and trek to the NE between 03-09z. At this point, there is a bit of a curl in the precip delineation due to increased 850mb frontogen over the northern tier of the sub. This is shown on all the guidance I mentioned above. That is important as this will be a higher ratio snowfall as 850mb temps crash on the backside of the system and we go from borderline isothermal to a pure snow sounding with sufficient lift to generate a nice of snow. It sweeps west to east over the overnight period and can add 2-4" in a quick time frame for those north of I-70, perhaps further down 81. I think we'll see some steep gradients in snowfall with this storm with a hard slope SW to NE into PA. Something to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Chips fall time to quote @Bob Chill. now we know why he didnt come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 37/20 30.31 for the old timer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I understand the snow totals have been dwindling away over the past few model cycles. However, are we still looking at a decent sleet event in the Baltimore Metro? Seems temperatures are hovering at freezing and the 850's are near that as well. I understand things can shift or change, but as it stands with most model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: You can see it, just can't make witty retorts. ha, i could still make one last funny post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah, that's the takeaway for me today. ~10am-4 or 5pm hopefully will look and feel like winter IMBY so I'll get a nice @Jebman Jebwalk and with some luck, maybe even exceed last year's total snowfall. Your backyard is practically mine. So fingers crossed for our Eastern HoCo crew to score at least a sample of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 me tommorow. I'm not that fat tho 2 21 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Here's a gif of the Nest run. Keep an eye on the time frame between 03-09z. Watch the band develop out west and then pivot eastward. That is in conjunction to the frontogenic forcing at 85H as the low closes nearby. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: now we know why he didnt come back Yeah, he said he was never feeling this one, so kudos to him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, H2O said: me tommorow. I'm not that fat tho Brothers in arms. I'm gonna make sure my sump pump works tonight, just so I'm ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CatoctinRN Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 35/24 Emmitsburg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Brought this back over because I think it's important for anyone checking in why the trends have gone the way they have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 East side of Columbia, 1:45pm: 36/20 , 30.31” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 35/20 30.28 here in western Augusta County (Staunton area). Should stay mostly snow here, with a possibility of a little ice mixing in around 4:00pm tomorrow before changing back to snow. Probably 8:1 ratios or so with around 1" qpf. Excited!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Currently 25/19 in McHenry....leaving Arlington at 5a tomorrow to get out there for the storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 North Arlington - 40/20 30.35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Currently 25/19 in McHenry....leaving Arlington at 5a tomorrow to get out there for the storm. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Dews look pretty commensurate at this stage. We'll see how the high percolates cold air down through our area overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 38/25 in 21136 at 627' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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