December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm

[hazwoper]

2 minutes ago, MPotter_WX said:

Dumping snow here in the LV Wednesday evening with this depiction from the latest 18Z NAM 3 km. But that dreaded dry slot is quite close...

A dry slot on the back end of the low?  That makes no sense.

[Animal]

Afternoon afd from mt holly!

nice write up

 

[Animal]

21 minutes ago, MPotter_WX said:

Dumping snow here in the LV Wednesday evening with this depiction from the latest 18Z NAM 3 km. But that dreaded dry slot is quite close...

Yea..this dry slot seems to land somewhere in the region. 36 hours to change!

[wkd]

Rgem moved northwesrt some. 

 

 

[Animal]

2 minutes ago, wkd said:

Rgem moved northwesrt some. 

 

 

Yea..off hour run..toss it. That’s more than some too!

 

[Animal]

18z gfs clobbers the metro!

 

[hazwoper]

My Holly going with 12-20” for me.  I’ll take it.

 

[Rockem_sockem_connection]

Non weenie GFS.

[Moderately Unstable]

Yeah, lol, if that happens I'll streak through the city. I'm still expecting 8-12" total where I'm at, north western part of town. 6-10 cc. Waiting for 21z sref. Attached 15z plumes for PHL. At this point short range models start being more useful and accurate on avg. Sref trended up btwn 9z and 15z. Still think sref is a bit low--dragged down by members predicting 0. Gfs is la la land high. There is low chance of Philly staying all snow, almost 0. Warm nose too big--needs surgery. I don't see 12+ in that scenario. Enough total qpf here though that I still find the range 8-12 most sensible for city. More in the burbs as usual. 3km nam snowfall map seems reasonable given the storm still in progress at hr 60. DT went surprisingly high. 

[Moderately Unstable]

Posting on here stresses me out sometimes. Trying to "read the room" when you can't see people is nervewracking. Constantly editing and second guessing what I write to avoid saying something dumb & no one mentioning and just ignoring me. 

[Animal]

Channel 3 1st call!

[Animal]

21 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Posting on here stresses me out sometimes. Trying to "read the room" when you can't see people is nervewracking. Constantly editing and second guessing what I write to avoid saying something dumb & no one mentioning and just ignoring me. 

It’s all fine.. this is my 1st storm in the philly area in years! Just moved back!

Hoping the southern snow belt scores a victory!  Reality is this storm is a big deal for the metro area. If you look at how many storms the airport has over ten inches. Sorta concerned that as snow is now measured across the river...it may skew the actual.

[Moderately Unstable]

22 minutes ago, Animal said:

It’s all fine.. this is my 1st storm in the philly area in years! Just moved back!

Hoping the southern snow belt scores a victory!  Reality is this storm is a big deal for the metro area. If you look at how many storms the airport has over ten inches. Sorta concerned that as snow is now measured across the river...it may skew the actual.

Welcome back! I hope so too. I know not everyone loves snow, but most folks are working remote these days, its the holidays, it could bring some extra joy to folks who haven't seen snow in a long time. I hear ya on the statistics. One thing to factor in there is that kphl is almost always on the bare low end of the forecast estimates. You have the heat island effect from the city + moderating effect a touch of being next to the Delaware+ farther south + basically sea level. So for every storm in the top rankings list for the city that says, say, 8-9 at the airport, you could realistically have gotten 10-11+ further up but still in the metro area. I also think that from an impact standpoint--you're 100% on the money. Even with sleet or freezing rain, that still causes power outages and makes travel dangerous, perhaps more so. It's just, objectively, cool to have a big full snowstorm with no messy ptypes, in ones own area. I live personally close to the city/burbs line, so I'm especially cognizant of these setups and their gradients. I'm sure my childhood hometown will see 3"+ than me even though the distance is not too far. Either way, fingers crossed.

[KamuSnow]

54 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Posting on here stresses me out sometimes. Trying to "read the room" when you can't see people is nervewracking. Constantly editing and second guessing what I write to avoid saying something dumb & no one mentioning and just ignoring me. 

Nah, you're good - let it fly! You can always clean it up afterwards, lol. We're pretty relaxed in here.

[Moderately Unstable]

Thanks guys, appreciate the words of encouragement/inclusion. Wasn't trying to go emo there, just have been feeling rather self conscious haha. Sometimes I overanalyze things... like when I say something on here and then no one posts for 30-40 minutes I go "is that because I just stopped the conversation or because no one has anything to say right now". Not specifically this thread, just on the site in general. Happened when I was talking in tropical about Iota and internally I was screaming, even though most likely there just wasn't any update to add for awhile. You know how you feel when you go from being the one who knows a lot about something (most on here when talking to other people irl off forum) to someone who is very much NOT at the top of the knowledge tree and your peers can blow your skills to shreds? It's like that, kinda like going from HS to college. Makes me much more reserved. 

[ChescoWx]

I always like to start looking at the NAM for the profiles at this juncture....growing pretty confident the 850's get to over 0c over much of the area for a time on Wednesday night before crashing SE again....with that in mind thinking a early thump of snow to IP for a while and back to snow before ending with a solid 6" to 9" of snow/concrete snow in my area of NW Chesco.....the all snow zone will be from around MDT to just N of RDG to just N of ABE and NE from there.....but allow me the option to change my forecast by game time!

[Furrawn]

 I’m delighted at the possibility of a real snow. Last winter was an exercise in snow desolation. 2020 as a year has been misery-filled. The possibility of snow... real snow... and fierce winds swirling the snow into ethereal etchings in the air... It’s nice to feel pure joy and hope. 
 

If we get at least five inches or more, I’m going to be outside every chance I get. I’ve missed the muffled silence snow brings... and the crisp crunch of fresh snow underfoot... 
 

[loudmog]

18 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Thanks guys, appreciate the words of encouragement/inclusion. Wasn't trying to go emo there, just have been feeling rather self conscious haha. Sometimes I overanalyze things... like when I say something on here and then no one posts for 30-40 minutes I go "is that because I just stopped the conversation or because no one has anything to say right now". Not specifically this thread, just on the site in general. Happened when I was talking in tropical about Iota and internally I was screaming, even though most likely there just wasn't any update to add for awhile. You know how you feel when you go from being the one who knows a lot about something (most on here when talking to other people irl off forum) to someone who is very much NOT at the top of the knowledge tree and your peers can blow your skills to shreds? It's like that, kinda like going from HS to college. Makes me much more reserved. 

To be fair I posted my introduction in this thread and got a single wiener reaction. So I feel that.

 

[Animal]

32 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Welcome back! I hope so too. I know not everyone loves snow, but most folks are working remote these days, its the holidays, it could bring some extra joy to folks who haven't seen snow in a long time. I hear ya on the statistics. One thing to factor in there is that kphl is almost always on the bare low end of the forecast estimates. You have the heat island effect from the city + moderating effect a touch of being next to the Delaware+ farther south + basically sea level. So for every storm in the top rankings list for the city that says, say, 8-9 at the airport, you could realistically have gotten 10-11+ further up but still in the metro area. I also think that from an impact standpoint--you're 100% on the money. Even with sleet or freezing rain, that still causes power outages and makes travel dangerous, perhaps more so. It's just, objectively, cool to have a big full snowstorm with no messy ptypes, in ones own area. I live personally close to the city/burbs line, so I'm especially cognizant of these setups and their gradients. I'm sure my childhood hometown will see 3"+ than me even though the distance is not too far. Either way, fingers crossed.

Going to challenge your phl airport comments. It’s south of the city by a few miles. It is the location...most airports are in locations that sustain activity. Actual events are measured across the river. Can’t move it!

I am 12-13 miles from phl sw!

[Animal]

8 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

I always like to start looking at the NAM for the profiles at this juncture....growing pretty confident the 850's get to over 0c over much of the area for a time on Wednesday night before crashing SE again....with that in mind thinking a early thump of snow to IP for a while and back to snow before ending with a solid 6" to 9" of snow/concrete snow in my area of NW Chesco.....the all snow zone will be from around MDT to just N of RDG to just N of ABE and NE from there.....but allow me the option to change my forecast by game time!

Huge 0 z nam run tonight!

all big storms that hug the coast mix to near Pottstown on occasion 

[Animal]

Pulled from New England 18z euro

safe to say phl get hit hard..liking 10 on my street. Heavy precip beats marginal temps Imop

[Heisy]

8 minutes ago, Animal said:

Pulled from New England 18z euro

safe to say phl get hit hard..liking 10 on my street. Heavy precip beats marginal temps Imop

Overdone. It’s gonna be sleet with a lp sitting there in Philly. Let’s make a bet. Haha btw I might go to Jim Thorpe like you said

[KamuSnow]

21 minutes ago, loudmog said:

To be fair I posted my introduction in this thread and got a single wiener reaction. So I feel that.

 

You got a Greenskeeper welcoming weiner - what's not to like? I think we've all been there, once or twice I had the thought of responding to my own post, like "great post Kamu! etc. etc." but it wasn't too hard to let the idea go, lol.

[Animal]

5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Overdone. It’s gonna be sleet with a lp sitting there in Philly. Let’s make a bet. Haha btw I might go to Jim Thorpe like you said

Jim Thorpe or I would personally go to hazleton. They sit at like 1.8 to 2k in elevation. 

[KamuSnow]

2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Overdone. It’s gonna be sleet with a lp sitting there in Philly. Let’s make a bet. Haha btw I might go to Jim Thorpe like you said

The one change Id like to see at this point is the low center east of the Delaware coast, instead of in Delaware. Everything else is lining up nicely.

 

[Moderately Unstable]

34 minutes ago, Animal said:

Going to challenge your phl airport comments. It’s south of the city by a few miles. It is the location...most airports are in locations that sustain activity. Actual events are measured across the river. Can’t move it!

I am 12-13 miles from phl sw!

Interesting. You're saying the measurements are done across the river...Delaware or Schuylkill? You're saying they *are not* measured at the airport? Sep: confused at what you are pointing out here. Do you mean that phl totals are reflective of reality, or aren't? 

[Animal]

3 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

The one change Id like to see at this point is the low center east of the Delaware coast, instead of in Delaware. Everything else is lining up nicely.

 

Patiently watching clock for the 0 z nam!

[Animal]

5 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Interesting. You're saying the measurements are done across the river...Delaware or Schuylkill? You're saying they *are not* measured at the airport? Sep: confused at what you are pointing out here. Do you mean that phl totals are reflective of reality, or aren't? 

Yea..the 96 dump is not accurate. Measured liquid.

for years the measurements were on a roof of a building!!

noaa decided to move phl measurements across the river to a private house!! National park nj!

[Rockem_sockem_connection]

Is there any source for this national park thing or is that just hearsay

[RedSky]

16 minutes ago, Animal said:

Yea..the 96 dump is not accurate. Measured liquid.

for years the measurements were on a roof of a building!!

noaa decided to move phl measurements across the river to a private house!! National park nj!

I use to believe they took the measurements on the runway, between jets whizzing past, some frazzled poor soul jogging back and forth with jet exhaust searing the flakes.