Animal Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 6z Euro followed the NAM...mixing into the LV. So like the op said, rgem is likely out to lunch. Going to be intense banding somewhere N and W tho. Saw that...toss it! off hour model run. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPotter_WX Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On Twitter I saw a sensitivity analysis showing the implications of latent heat release within the downstream ridge. Has a lot to do with how the NAM is so amped (overdoing convection) with the GFS is so flat (under-doing convection). Guess we’ll see who can handle the convection better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, MPotter_WX said: On Twitter I saw a sensitivity analysis showing the implications of latent heat release within the downstream ridge. Has a lot to do with how the NAM is so amped (overdoing convection) with the GFS is so flat (under-doing convection). Guess we’ll see who can handle the convection better. MJVentrice Twitter post is a few nails in the coffin for I 95 crowd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 29 minutes ago, Animal said: MJVentrice Twitter post is a few nails in the coffin for I 95 crowd! Remember how everyone said this storm couldn't come north because of the confluence ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 30 minutes ago, Animal said: MJVentrice Twitter post is a few nails in the coffin for I 95 crowd! What because of a meso model 3 days away? It’s not impossible, but common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 So the RGEM, GFS, and GEFS tick SE but the NAM, Euro and EPS are ticking NW. Talk about a split. My money is 55/45 in favor of the latter group with the end result being near the middle with a lean to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6Z EPS is tucked in considerably. At this point anyone south and east of Interstate 81 is likely to have major mixing issues, and the trend is not getting better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Remember how everyone said this storm couldn't come north because of the confluence ? Remember when I told u I thought it be tucked an mostly rain for the 95 an east crew an u called me a troll? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Remember when I told u I thought it be tucked an mostly rain for the 95 an east crew an u called me a troll? Let’s not start patting yourself on the back yet.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Ask the folks up in NE how the euro did with their last noreaster last week. It and the NAM were showing amped up snow bombs for the interior and the less amped gfs/cmc ruled the roost... And it wasn't even close. Lots of weenies in S.NH and Vermont only saw an inch when the euro/nam were both consistently printing out 12"+ in those areas. They have been consistently over amped in the mid range all fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 What concerns me is the sw energy continues to be sampled stronger which yields a more amped system. I think this trend is real irt the sw strength. We see this alot when energy comes onshore out West. Our saving grace/hope for i95 is going to be the 50/50, confluence, and hp ... whether those can hold and help counter the strengthening slp. RGEM says we can do it. EPS says nope im gonna dislodge the blocking and 50/50. Fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Ask the folks up in NE how the euro did with their last noreaster last week. It and the NAM were showing amped up snow bombs for the interior and the less amped gfs/cmc ruled the roost... And it wasn't even close. Lots of weenies in S.NH and Vermont only saw an inch when the euro/nam were both consistently printing out 12"+ in those areas. They have been consistently over amped in the mid range all fall. After all these years, I rarely trust any mid-range solutions anymore. It's literally like they are programmed to go through a series of more speculative "what if"s, that send the runs into la la land. The Euro bombed over and over last year setting this poor forum into a tizzy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 New NAM takes a step back towards the gfs/rgem. Actually more in line with what I think will happen. 6-10" for 95 with a period of sleet 10-15" with lolli's in the 20" range N and W of 95 in elevated areas. Thinking CCB is going to end up just south of the lehigh valley. Sharp cut off south of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 19 minutes ago, The Iceman said: New NAM takes a step back towards the gfs/rgem. Actually more in line with what I think will happen. 6-10" for 95 with a period of sleet 10-15" with lolli's in the 20" range N and W of 95 in elevated areas. Thinking CCB is going to end up just south of the lehigh valley. Sharp cut off south of 95. 6-10 too bold on 95. Imo 3-6 hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12z rgem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: 6-10 too bold on 95. Imo 3-6 hopefully lol lets just post the nam qpf map? Picture is worth a thousand words and all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 16 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: 6-10 too bold on 95. Imo 3-6 hopefully I think 3-6" is practically a lock for 95 and that's with heavy, heavy mixing. Total precip is in the 1.5" range. Even if it's 75% sleet, you'll still reach 3-6". I don't think this will be a 75% sleet storm though for 95 save for maybe S Philly and I don't think 95 flips to rain or if they do it's at the very, very end as drizzle/light rain. Just the sheer amount of precip has me feeling pretty decent. Even if it's 50% sleet for 95, .75" LE of snow is still 4-8". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I think 3-6" is practically a lock for 95 and that's with heavy, heavy mixing. Total precip is in the 1.5" range. Even if it's 75% sleet, you'll still reach 3-6". I don't think this will be a 75% sleet storm though for 95 save for maybe S Philly and I don't think 95 flips to rain or if they do it's at the very, very end as drizzle/light rain. Just the sheer amount of precip has me feeling pretty decent. Even if it's 50% sleet for 95, .75" LE of snow is still 4-8". I agree. 6” in the city is very likely. I personally wonder about the N solutions because of the confluence. But we’ll see. I better at least prepare for 10-12”+ here in Royersford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, mattinpa said: I agree. 6” in the city is very likely. I personally wonder about the N solutions because of the confluence. But we’ll see. I better at least prepare for 10-12”+ here in Royersford. When I lived in Royersford I never did as well as I thought I should? (Elevation? 240') I only did slightly better than my folks in Horsham... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: When I lived in Royersford I never did as well as I thought I should? (Elevation? 240') I only did slightly better than my folks in Horsham... We actually don’t do great here despite being in NW burbs, but if the models are right, we shouldn’t miss good totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GFS : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: GFS : I’d lock that up in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, BlueDXer75 said: I’d lock that up in a heartbeat. Very consistent..next batter up is Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Animal said: Very consistent..next batter up is Canada! Yep. Looks pretty good out my way in Reading, PA area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Animal said: Very consistent..next batter up is Canada! Looks too high around Philly....can't really judge the Burbs because they always do better but by how much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12Z CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Does the GFS, et al. still have trouble parsing snowfall from sleet? In other words, do those clown maps take into account sleet accumulation, as well, or are they measuring strictly what it perceives as snow per local soundings? I would imagine the mesoscale models do a better job at handling that differentiation, but that's a hard guess on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 25 minutes ago, hazwoper said: 12Z CMC Looks solid for Berks County! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, BlueDXer75 said: Looks solid for Berks County! Howdy Neighbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Howdy Neighbor Hey there! Looking good in Spring Twp for some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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