ChescoWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Last 2 runs of the GFS just want to put that 20" snow blob right over NW Chesco....if only it could tell the difference between snow and sleet....I do think NW Chesco is in an ideal spot to be Sleet Champ tomorrow....wish us luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 ECM is 10 or 11" for everybody on the PA side 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, RedSky said: ECM is 10 or 11" for everybody Definitely better... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kickingupastorm Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 That tight gradient makes me very, very nervous.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 06z NAM sucks....hopefully a dud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3:19am Probably the best call 6-12"....models are still screwing around. Covers the low end and high. I'm fine with it... Active Weather Alerts WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED: 3:19 AM DEC. 16, 2020 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow mixed with sleet expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 6 to 12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From noon today to 10 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute tonight and the morning commute on Thursday. Heavy snow and gusty winds could result in power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move in from southwest to northeast this afternoon and early evening, and will be heavy at times this evening. The snow will likely mix with and change to sleet this evening, before ending as a period of snow on Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I've kinda just accepted the fact this won't be as high end as some of those ridiculous models days ago. 10-14" for up here is the call. I'm really hoping to get double digits at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 24F / DP 14F currently (probably won't be the final low) so temps are good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 41 minutes ago, Newman said: I've kinda just accepted the fact this won't be as high end as some of those ridiculous models days ago. 10-14" for up here is the call. I'm really hoping to get double digits at least. I think you will...I'm hoping 8-10"w/wind which suits me fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I'm a trucker, and I can't even begin to think what it would be like trying to climb the Pine Grove to Tremont hill on I-81 northbound at the height of this storm.Don’t forget the pass on RT 80 Blakeslee through hickory run. I have watched the sliding and crashing from the mosey wood bridge. Scary stretch. Pa is full of them.Driving to cabin near BB saw the travel restrictions kick in at 1pm. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Definitely better... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 You guys think I should stick with Williamsport or maybe head east to Scranton or south towards Harrisburg. I can’t freaking decideI’m a go big or go home kinda person. Elevation.....latitude. NEPA between Thorpe and Wilkes stretch along the PA TPK. Now tweaking a bit north and west might find the bullseye but also put you in an area with less resources. Been chasing snow in PA for 30yrs. When the true dumps occur...things often take a while before travel becomes safe. 93 blizzard was a fine example....figured on 2ft. Got 3ft and three extra days on the mountain.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 We gonna have a storm obs thread?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 40 minutes ago, SP said: Don’t forget the pass on RT 80 Blakeslee through hickory run. I have watched the sliding and crashing from the mosey wood bridge. Scary stretch. Pa is full of them. Driving to cabin near BB saw the travel restrictions kick in at 1pm. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Yes, I did forget about that one. And you are right. PA is full of them. I-80 by Lock Haven. I-81 going up through Clarks Summit. Etc and etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyGeekGirl Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 hours ago, RedSky said: ECM is 10 or 11" for everybody on the PA side Aaagggghhhhhh moving across the bridge to NJ - I’m just 5 miles from Philly - is killing me here. All I want for Christmas is a blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Mesos amping up the snow for at least the upper half of Lehigh county and points north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Made it down to 21F last night. Dew point is 12F currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 WAA is going to be the key for 95. HRRR has a nice thump of 6-8" of snow before any changeover. Feeling comfortable at 8-12" up here. Think 95 may end up closer to 4-8" though if the WAA is a fierce as progged. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 23F / 11F 8-10" is my thinking here....let's go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPotter_WX Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 My final call for LV is 8-12” south of Rt. 22 and 12-16” north of Rt. 22. Still room for a shift either way, but this is my highest confidence forecast. Hopefully we can all enjoy a show at least from 4-10p. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 hour ago, SP said: We gonna have a storm obs thread? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Go ahead an make one. Go time will be soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 9 hours ago, ChescoWx said: Last 2 runs of the GFS just want to put that 20" snow blob right over NW Chesco....if only it could tell the difference between snow and sleet....I do think NW Chesco is in an ideal spot to be Sleet Champ tomorrow....wish us luck! Wow what a tight gradient Paul! I am right below that max but still in deep snow. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 56 minutes ago, Snow Man said: Wow what a tight gradient Paul! I am right below that max but still in deep snow. Lock it in. Hi Carmen! If only it was snow - cut that by more than half - I think majority of our snow accumulation will be sleet...plowing will be tough that is for sure! Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Quick question...So for parts like Berks south of I-78 for example, we are looking at maybe less snow, but this would be replaced by sleet correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 52 minutes ago, dssbss said: Quick question...So for parts like Berks south of I-78 for example, we are looking at maybe less snow, but this would be replaced by sleet correct? correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 My final forecast tweaked downward a bit to account for more sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: My final forecast tweaked downward a bit to account for more sleet. Kinda hard to tell but I think I am somewhere between "Zone 3" and "Zone 4" on your call, so I guess 2" - 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 34 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Kinda hard to tell but I think I am somewhere between "Zone 3" and "Zone 4" on your call, so I guess 2" - 8". I'm in the 2 to 4 in zone 3, which is probably about right. Sucks being on the gradient edge! Nevertheless, if I get 3" I'll exceed last winter's total, so there's that. It sure looks and feels like snow, got that raw breeze out of the ENE. And as I'm typing, 1st flakes! Hoping for a nice snowy afternoon at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 I'm forecasting on the low end about 8-9" here in far northwest Bucks. The warm punch means business and I think most of the snow is the WAA thump, after the sleet think the change back to snow will yield very little additional accumulation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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