RedSky Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Animal said: Back to bed!! Really pissed at the euro, nam and every other model...spooked about the warning for a foot or more!! But at least you new to expect if from your geography and a tight coastal, up here we now need to be sedated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NAM is a sleet bomb and there is a positive to that it won't melt before Xmas. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: NAM is a sleet bomb and there is a positive to that it won't melt before Xmas. It's funny to see this trend to Boston now and the dryslot/mixing continue to punch farther N and W down here. Instead of moving due E the track keeps adjusting to crawl NE along the coast then bomb New England. Should we be surprised down here in SE PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow_ Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Winter storm warning.....20 to 24 inches they calling for. Winter Storm Warning from WED 10:00 AM EST until THU 10:00 AM EST Action Recommended Make preparations per the instructions Issued By Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service Affected Area Portions of northern New Jersey and east central and northeast Pennsylvania Description ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 20 to 24 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, shadow_ said: Winter storm warning.....20 to 24 inches they calling for. Have one here for 12+ inches. A little concerned that the mix might even come up here, but still a day of tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 this is for Macungie - I swear I was reading a forecast for Mammoth Mountain Ca. Most I ever seen actually predicted from one event: MT Holly real close in pulling the trigger for a issuing Blizzard warnings later this evening too. I think they should just to put more meat into the whiteout conditions under the winter storm warning that will exist to keep idiots from venturing out. Two feet of snow in 24 hours is just as bad as a blizzard IMHO Wednesday Snow, mainly after 1pm. High near 31. East wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible. Thursday Snow likely, mainly before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 32. North wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. From the discussion: Even inland and back into the interior, wind gusts of 35-40 mph are possible. This would result in blizzard-like conditions, especially where snow is heaviest. It is too soon to issue a Blizzard Warning, and confidence is too low to warrant issuing one, but the potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It's funny to see this trend to Boston now and the dryslot/mixing continue to punch farther N and W down here. Instead of moving due E the track keeps adjusting to crawl NE along the coast then bomb New England. Should we be surprised down here in SE PA? March 2017 all over again. But seriously, Mt Holly calling for 20-24" of snow up this way which just seems extremely aggressive. There isn't any guidance at 6z showing nearly that much. The warm push is gonna turn much of SE PA to sleet or a dry slot if it holds as depicted. I'm gonna stick with my call I gave much of my family: 10-14" up here. Still 36 more hours until the storm, this can shift back south but I'm not gonna hold my breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Unless we see these meso models shift the banding back south, I don't see the 18-24" range verifying this far south. Insane forecast by NWS, I still can't get over it. I want it to verify dearly, but I can't get myself to believe it with the 0z and 6z push north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 But at least you new to expect if from your geography and a tight coastal, up here we now need to be sedated. Like I said earlier.....Billy billy billy..........Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Newman said: Unless we see these meso models shift the banding back south, I don't see the 18-24" range verifying this far south. Insane forecast by NWS, I still can't get over it. I want it to verify dearly, but I can't get myself to believe it with the 0z and 6z push north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 Shades of March 2017. Slept for a few hours and had a wicked dream that I was physically encased in a tomb of sleet and ice. Woke up in a cold sweat....stepped out of bed and slipped on what felt like ice on my bedroom floor. Dog pissed. Jumped in shower, turned water on and ice sprayed out of the shower head. Woke up and realized I was having a dream inside of a dream. Weird stuff. Now I'm not sure if this is real or a dream. 4 1 1 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 NWS is bullish asf for my township. 20" and code purple. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Wednesday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. High 35. Wind chill ranging from 19 to 26. Wind east-northeast around 7 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the morning, becoming 10 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 3 inches. Wednesday night: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog after midnight. Snow likely. Breezy. Low 28. Wind chill as low as 18. Wind east-northeast around 14 mph, gusting to 20 mph, in the evening, becoming 11 mph, gusting to 20 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 inches. Snow accumulation 15 to 20 inches. Thursday: Cloudy. A chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. High 30. Wind north-northeast around 9 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the morning, becoming 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about an inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DHS@ABE Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I don't understand the NWS forecasts at all. The potential to bust a widespread 18-24" prediction in this scenario is very high, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 wtf happened overnight?? I wake up and Redsky is a Mormon, Ralph's encased in carbonite...who said we need a mod? 12/19/95 is the storm I was thinking of the other day. A forecast of 12+ turned into a sleet feast. After the last two winters, I won't complain what falls from the sky, as long as it's frozen. As others have said, time to pay attention to the hi-res models for CAD. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Got my bike ready to ride of a cliff. really disappointing model trends recently. Have a busy day with work...see you weens later tonight! that smell is the fart noise of model trends! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NWS is bullish asf for my township. 20" and code purple. Wow. Historic bust coming... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, JTA66 said: wtf happened overnight?? I wake up and Redsky is a Mormon, Ralph's encased in carbonite...who said we need a mod? 12/19/95 is the storm I was thinking of the other day. A forecast of 12+ turned into a sleet feast. After the last two winters, I won't complain what falls from the sky, as long as it's frozen. As others have said, time to pay attention to the hi-res models for CAD. The problem really isn't the CAD, the surface high in Canada is still strong. The problem is we have the upper level lows passing well to our north now. Like here on the RGEM. When the 700mb low passes north of you through eastern PA, we're all gonna dry slot or turn to sleet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I kid you not, there's a cluster of 6z EPS members inland Jersey and into NYC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The GFS was the last one to hang onto SE PA, and with the 6Z it took that away to some degree. Seems Mt. Holly needs to adjust their forecasts badly. I still can't tell if Scranton or Harrisburg will jackpot. Maybe both? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 652 days since the last inch of snow was recorded at Philly International. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, JTA66 said: 652 days since the last inch of snow was recorded at Philly International. I’m directly across the river...ending that drought is my goal now. C’mon front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPotter_WX Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I really think Mt Holly should not have jumped so high for SE PA. It’s always better to raise totals later. Even though that HP is strong, it’s seems evident mixing with end up being an issue for many of us. Still holding out hope LV stays all snow but sleet may ruin our accumulations as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Here is Mt. Holly's current call via snow map - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I am shocked at mt Holly's forecast for 95. High likelihood they are going to bust massive again around 95 just like they did the last Decembers storm where 6-12" was forecast and we got 0 and the March storm 2 years ago where 18-24" was forecast but we ended up with 3-6" due to the sleet layer being underforecasted. Those are crazy high forecast totals with the uncertainty we have in place in regard to precip type. Even up here in Hopewell, they're calling for 18-24" and I'll be shocked if that verifies. The meso models have the sleet line punching up towards Allentown. When they've shown this in the past, it has verified and it's usually too conservative with the sleet line. I'm expecting a ton of sleet now for 95 itself. Probably only 3-6" total because of that. Even up near me I think we are 6-12" because of the sleet. Hopefully the trend stops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DHS@ABE Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The NWS is forecasting 15-23" for my location in the Lehigh Valley, however looking at the 12 Z NAM I'm going with 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 New NAM continues to shoot the sleet line further nw. Plain rain line actually touches 95 this run. I don't think that's likely, I believe they'll stay frozen but this is looking like a large sleet event for many now. And also a death knell to those 18-24" totals even up on the lehigh valley if the nams thermals are right... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: New NAM continues to shoot the sleet line further nw. Plain rain line actually touches 95 this run. I don't think that's likely, I believe they'll stay frozen but this is looking like a large sleet event for many now. And also a death knell to those 18-24" totals even up on the lehigh valley if the nams thermals are right... Of course we don't shovel or scrape a model run....stay tuned it will change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6z GFS is sortof bugging me out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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