The Iceman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 HRRR also showing the sleet line getting really far NW https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020121512/hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_40.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 If the GFS caves then we have a problem. Otherwise, I still like where the 06Z has us at this moment. Strange how all of a sudden the confluence is weakening. I feel lie we are at that point where we lose some support only for that cold push to show up on tonight's runs. We shall see. Still, this a is a high impact event for the area during a winter we all thought would be a big goose egg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: HRRR also showing the sleet line getting really far NW https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2020121512/hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_40.png That is crazy too because the low isn't in that bad of a position. Looks like the dryslot hells to warm the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 hours ago, Newman said: Unless we see these meso models shift the banding back south, I don't see the 18-24" range verifying this far south. Insane forecast by NWS, I still can't get over it. I want it to verify dearly, but I can't get myself to believe it with the 0z and 6z push north. I think it might be computer generated, and look at the time stamp, from very early this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Shades of March 2017. Slept for a few hours and had a wicked dream that I was physically encased in a tomb of sleet and ice. Woke up in a cold sweat....stepped out of bed and slipped on what felt like ice on my bedroom floor. Dog pissed. Jumped in shower, turned water on and ice sprayed out of the shower head. Woke up and realized I was having a dream inside of a dream. Weird stuff. Now I'm not sure if this is real or a dream. I'm dreaming of a white Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 All of these 12z models take the mix/sleet all the way up into Berks/LV and a nice dry slot as well. Oh well. Honestly expecting 6-10" now after every single model run the past week giving me 15+". And those 6-10" will mostly come in the initial WAA thump, then sleet and dry slot, then maybe eek out some backside CCB love. It's gonna feel more like a SWFE compared to the initial look of a Miller B/C. Feel for you Philly and Jersey folk, long winter ahead. Lets hope we can turn this around in the next 24 hours. Otherwise, on to the next... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Newman said: All of these 12z models take the mix/sleet all the way up into Berks/LV and a nice dry slot as well. Oh well. Honestly expecting 6-10" now after every single model run the past week giving me 15+". And those 6-10" will mostly come in the initial WAA thump, then sleet and dry slot, then maybe eek out some backside CCB love. It's gonna feel more like a SWFE compared to the initial look of a Miller B/C. Feel for you Philly and Jersey folk, long winter ahead. Lets hope we can turn this around in the next 24 hours. Otherwise, on to the next... All? Not the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, hazwoper said: All? Not the GFS. Continues to shift NW with the other models. Let's see what the Euro and CMC do. The problem is I've seen this story before go both ways. This could trend back SE at the last moment, or it could keep shifting NW and more amped. I just don't have a good taste in my mouth with this one. Screams warm nose and dry slot with those mid-level low passes and a tucked surface low into NY Harbor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Newman said: All of these 12z models take the mix/sleet all the way up into Berks/LV and a nice dry slot as well. Oh well. Honestly expecting 6-10" now after every single model run the past week giving me 15+". And those 6-10" will mostly come in the initial WAA thump, then sleet and dry slot, then maybe eek out some backside CCB love. It's gonna feel more like a SWFE compared to the initial look of a Miller B/C. Feel for you Philly and Jersey folk, long winter ahead. Lets hope we can turn this around in the next 24 hours. Otherwise, on to the next... My expectations all along have been warning level event. Should still score that in Hopewell with the initial WAA thump. 6-10" sounds about right though I'm expecting more like 4-8". This is my first winter being in a traditional CAD zone with some elevation so I'm not as sure. Based on my old spot in Levittown though, I'd only be expecting 2-4" there. 1-3" on the WAA thump then over to mainly sleet with light rain during the dry slot. Similar for philly. Feel for you guys and I hope the trend stops because I'm on the edge of warning snow now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, The Iceman said: My expectations all along have been warning level event. Should still score that in Hopewell with the initial WAA thump. 6-10" sounds about right though I'm expecting more like 4-8". This is my first winter being in a traditional CAD zone with some elevation so I'm not as sure. Based on my old spot in Levittown though, I'd only be expecting 2-4" there. 1-3" on the WAA thump then over to mainly sleet with light rain during the dry slot. Similar for philly. Feel for you guys and I hope the trend stops because I'm on the edge of warning snow now... Hopewell has elevation? Yeah, I'm not expecting much of anything in Langhorne, PA besides sleet at this point. Hope you do a little better up there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Why you guys even consider the GFS is beyond me. As a veteran model watcher it always jumps the gun at the 36-48 hr stage. ALWAYS. I only use it for determining if a storm has potential in the medium range. Specifics are a joke. Look at 12z run for more reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said: Hopewell has elevation? Yeah, I'm not expecting much of anything in Langhorne, PA besides sleet at this point. Hope you do a little better up there! Surprisingly I'm at like 500' at my property here. Way better than the 33 ft I was at in lower bucks. Look up the Sourland "Mountains" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Sleet is even getting up to the Lehigh Valley on most models now. Ugh. I’m going with 6-10” from the front end thump here, then some sleet, then 2-4” more from the CCB. 8-14” sounds good but it’s disappointing when just 12 hours ago the consensus was for 1 1/2 feet with no mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Violentweatherfan said: I think it might be computer generated, and look at the time stamp, from very early this morning Those are the NWS forecasts, from early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 To brighten the mood check day 7 gfs. Not bad with that energy coming down from the northwest. I can’t even fathom tracking another event right now though lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Glenn's 11am newscast forecast map. I think it's pretty much spot on... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwxHistorian Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Violentweatherfan said: I think it might be computer generated, and look at the time stamp, from very early this morning Looks like typical NWS overestimation, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said: Looks like typical NWS overestimation, no? Huh? It is a forecast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Expectations now set at 8-10", 10" on Dec 5, 2005 in Horsham may still stand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 They were on point at the time they issued that forecast. Subsequent runs have been more dicey. Some proprietary mesoscale models still show more snow farther south. There is very strong hp. Hard to see the low make it as far inland as some of the models currently take it. Being a good met means looking at the physics, not just the models. Models have utility but they're a tool, not THE forecast. Plenty of times on this forum the models have said BIG STORM and then, poof, nothing, and everyone on here went along with it. Conversely, sometimes situations outperform the models. In closing, unless you are currently working as a paid met, please sitith thy butt down, and stop critiquing those who studied and do this professionally. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 This is looking like a nuisance event in my area now. 1-4 of snow to slop and ending as snow..climo wins again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 18 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Glenn's 11am newscast forecast map. I think it's pretty much spot on... To aggressive imop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Ukie is over the pine lands with the Soprano crew 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I think philly gets 3 inches..... of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mklojay Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Surprisingly I'm at like 500' at my property here. Way better than the 33 ft I was at in lower bucks. Look up the Sourland "Mountains" Where are you in Hopewell? I’m practically on Baldpate Mountain and I’m at about 350’.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 DT's last call is gonna be 3 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, RedSky said: DT's last call is gonna be 3 lol does sleet accumulation count for winter season snow total lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowLover22 said: does sleet accumulation count for winter season snow total lol It sure does, sleet like Russian tank 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, mklojay said: Where are you in Hopewell? I’m practically on Baldpate Mountain and I’m at about 350’. . Off Hopewell-Wertsville...N. of the actual borough. It's actually more only like 420'-450' okay but still way more elevation than my old house was my only point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 40 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: To brighten the mood check day 7 gfs. Not bad with that energy coming down from the northwest. I can’t even fathom tracking another event right now though lol never again will I start tracking until inside of 72 hours..... hell who am I kidding I always fall for it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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