December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm

[NJHurricane]

18 minutes ago, Animal said:

Yea..the 96 dump is not accurate. Measured liquid.

for years the measurements were on a roof of a building!!

noaa decided to move phl measurements across the river to a private house!! National park nj!

This was true for many years, not sure if it still is. I know they were trying to find a new observer at one point. I live in National Park (no I’m not the observer). The western part of our town is just the river’s width away from PHL.  We are probably quite representative of ground truth on the eastern part of airport property but from what I remember there was no suitable location on that part of the airport.  It often differs from some of the unofficial obj in center city, but generally what I experienced at my location jives pretty nicely with the airport. I think there was one storm that the back edge of a band we were in never made it across the river. I’m frequently not in town or I mighta done the obs and don’t trust others to faithfully follow the measurement protocols.  I’ve still never come across who the observer was from my town.  Lol y’all probably sent the person into observer witness protection.

[RedSky]

ECM ensembles are making things dicey for I95.

 

[wkd]

40 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Overdone. It’s gonna be sleet with a lp sitting there in Philly. Let’s make a bet. Haha btw I might go to Jim Thorpe like you said

I saw you post in the NE forum during their last storm that you like it when the heavy snow comes at night. I'm just the opposite. My joy is watching it fall during the day. I wouldn't mind if it all melted by the following morning. I'm getting too old to clear snow.

[NJHurricane]

8 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

Is there any source for this national park thing or is that just hearsay

It was true...not sure if they found someone new or on the PA side.  I received an inquiry if I was interested but I often work long hours in north Jersey.  I’ve lived in National Park since 2011, before that in Woodbury.  

[Newman]

46 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Overdone. It’s gonna be sleet with a lp sitting there in Philly. Let’s make a bet. Haha btw I might go to Jim Thorpe like you said

I'm going to Jim Thorpe Saturday on a hike at Onoko Falls (imo, THE best hike in the Poconos area), at least that's the plans right now lol. Might be trekking through 18+" but that'll be part of the adventure I suppose.

[Moderately Unstable]

We must find the observer!! *grabs pitchfork*. Jk. I'm embarrassed I didn't know that. I've been to the mt holly office several times...years ago when a friend worked there, and no one ever told me that. Tried to find info on Google but there's nothing. The inquirer itself reported this jan no less that totals were taken from the airport. NjHurricanes point jives with what I was trying to get at though..airport or NJ, there is often some material difference btwn airport and cc. Not hugely so, but it can be a couple inches in bigger storms. The inquirer article pointed out that many areas of phl see significantly more snow than phl airport. Even some inland parts of nj. Only the nj coast sees less. So as to my earlier comment--if I forecasted for the airport, my numbers would be lower than, say, Roxborough, even though both are "in the city". 

 

https://www.inquirer.com/weather/snow-weather-philadelphia-winter-phl-measure-20200121.html

[Moderately Unstable]

17 minutes ago, Newman said:

I'm going to Jim Thorpe Saturday on a hike at Onoko Falls (imo, THE best hike in the Poconos area), at least that's the plans right now lol. Might be trekking through 18+" but that'll be part of the adventure I suppose.

Glen Okono trail was closed several years back. Too many folks getting hurt. I had to help 2 last time I hiked it. Just an FYI in case you didn't know. Not sure if you can still access the parking lot and such or if they blocked it off. 

[RedSky]

A mid atlantic forum member thought it amusing there is a town called Jim Thorpe, but what's up with the town named Mary D not all that far away?

 

 

 

[MGorse]

2 hours ago, Animal said:

It’s all fine.. this is my 1st storm in the philly area in years! Just moved back!

Hoping the southern snow belt scores a victory!  Reality is this storm is a big deal for the metro area. If you look at how many storms the airport has over ten inches. Sorta concerned that as snow is now measured across the river...it may skew the actual.

Snow for PHL is not measured across the river. That ended several years ago. 

[ChescoWx]

22 minutes ago, RedSky said:

ECM ensembles are making things dicey for I95.

 

Gonna be dicey IMO for most on here unless N and W of MDT - RDG - ABE line.......

[ChescoWx]

 Of note In 126 years of December records in Chester County only 26 storms have exceeded 6" only on average once every 5 years!  Only 2x has a December storm exceeded 20" -  six times 12" plus and only 8 times 10" or more....climo argues against a major snow event....but of course that does not mean it cannot happen....just rare!

[ChescoWx]

WXSIM with 18z GFS NAM has 13" to 18" of snow for Western Chesco.....it has 850's warming to 30.6 at 2am at their warmest....hence the inflated totals.....

Wednesday: Cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A
 slight chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. High
 35. Wind chill ranging from 21 to 25. Wind northeast around 7 mph, gusting to 15
 mph, in the morning, becoming 11 mph, gusting to 19 mph, in the afternoon.
 Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly
 around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches.
 
 Wednesday night: Dense overcast. Snow likely. Breezy. Low 29. Wind chill as low
 as 18. Wind northeast around 14 mph, gusting to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation
 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 inches. Snow
 accumulation 12 to 16 inches.

[Rockem_sockem_connection]

32 minutes ago, NJHurricane said:

It was true...not sure if they found someone new or on the PA side.  I received an inquiry if I was interested but I often work long hours in north Jersey.  I’ve lived in National Park since 2011, before that in Woodbury.  

Hello neighbor.

[Animal]

14 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Snow for PHL is not measured across the river. That ended several years ago. 

Where is it measured?

still thought I saw your reports listed at national park nj!

[MGorse]

2 minutes ago, Animal said:

Where is it measured?

still thought I saw your reports listed at national park nj!

Airport. It has been that way for awhile now. 

[NJHurricane]

2 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

Hello neighbor.

I’m home for this one....so 37 and rain pretty much guaranteed.  Was really looking forward to watching it pile up by the monument.  We need a big push from this confluence to shunt it east and put us in the sweet zone. 295 corridor4life.

[Animal]

4 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Airport. It has been that way for awhile now. 

Understood.. where exactly?  Terminal? 3 miles out at ups etc.

[jwilson]

2 hours ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Thanks guys, appreciate the words of encouragement/inclusion. Wasn't trying to go emo there, just have been feeling rather self conscious haha. Sometimes I overanalyze things... like when I say something on here and then no one posts for 30-40 minutes I go "is that because I just stopped the conversation or because no one has anything to say right now". Not specifically this thread, just on the site in general. Happened when I was talking in tropical about Iota and internally I was screaming, even though most likely there just wasn't any update to add for awhile. You know how you feel when you go from being the one who knows a lot about something (most on here when talking to other people irl off forum) to someone who is very much NOT at the top of the knowledge tree and your peers can blow your skills to shreds? It's like that, kinda like going from HS to college. Makes me much more reserved. 

Haha, you're not alone so don't worry about it.

I might chase this one, but I'm still hesitant with the eventual northward jog.  I agree with others and think this is going to end up a heavy sleet storm, at least for a while, from my normal locale in Southeast Montco.  This is the kind of storm I remember from childhood that was also a bit of a loser for my area and much better up in places like the Lehigh Valley.  Maybe the confluence can win out, but I'm not super confident in that with the relatively marginal cold.  2009 this is not.

[ChasingFlakes]

2 hours ago, Animal said:

Huge 0 z nam run tonight!

all big storms that hug the coast mix to near Pottstown on occasion 

March 2017 I ended up with a ton of sleet, Stella I believe.  That snowed, a lot, all the way up thru NNE.

 

Edit: this article about stella shows a similar rain snow line between stella and what models are showing for this storm.  Obvious differences is the further west canadian high in Stella's setup, which let it crawl up the coast instead of transfer out to sea.     https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-stella-northeast-bust-march-2017

 

[Voyager]

2 hours ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Sometimes I overanalyze things... like when I say something on here and then no one posts for 30-40 minutes I go "is that because I just stopped the conversation

Take a look at my post count, and I still sometimes think like that...lol

[MGorse]

3 minutes ago, Animal said:

Understood.. where exactly?  Terminal? 3 miles out at ups etc.

At the airport.  

[Animal]

Just now, ChasingFlakes said:

March 2017 I ended up with a ton of sleet, Stella I believe.  That snowed, a lot, all the way up thru NNE.

It sleets in the biggies!

my best memory was living in out in northern unionville Chester county late 80’s or early 90’s. 

got smoked going to bed with a call of rain changing to snow per channel 3.

father woke me up at 5 am pouring snow like 20 inches fell that storm!!

[Voyager]

35 minutes ago, RedSky said:

A mid atlantic forum member thought it amusing there is a town called Jim Thorpe, but what's up with the town named Mary D not all that far away?

Mary D is right in my backyard almost, well, a couple miles west of me. It was named for Mary Dodson, the wife of a coal miner who lived in the villiage, or "patch town" as we call them in the coal region.

[MGorse]

57 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

We must find the observer!! *grabs pitchfork*. Jk. I'm embarrassed I didn't know that. I've been to the mt holly office several times...years ago when a friend worked there, and no one ever told me that. Tried to find info on Google but there's nothing. The inquirer itself reported this jan no less that totals were taken from the airport. NjHurricanes point jives with what I was trying to get at though..airport or NJ, there is often some material difference btwn airport and cc. Not hugely so, but it can be a couple inches in bigger storms. The inquirer article pointed out that many areas of phl see significantly more snow than phl airport. Even some inland parts of nj. Only the nj coast sees less. So as to my earlier comment--if I forecasted for the airport, my numbers would be lower than, say, Roxborough, even though both are "in the city". 

 

https://www.inquirer.com/weather/snow-weather-philadelphia-winter-phl-measure-20200121.html

When did you visit NWS Mount Holly? Not sure if we have ever met. I have worked their since 2003. 

[Animal]

0z nam improved

[Moderately Unstable]

00z nam maintains snow at least a bit longer over Philly. Also moves the low a touch closer to the delmarva. 540 line unchanged ish. Colder ll air in place though so more snow.

[Moderately Unstable]

1 minute ago, MGorse said:

When did you visit NWS Mount Holly? Not sure if we have ever met. I have worked their since 2003. 

Haha, I believe we have but not certain. 2009-2013ish. Larry's friend.. I did the senior project involving northeastern storm chasing. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Moderately Unstable said:

00z nam maintains snow at least a bit longer over Philly. Also moves the low a touch closer to the delmarva. 540 line unchanged ish. Colder ll air in place though so more snow.

NAM has come quite a ways since 0z yesterday wrt ll cold and wind vectors. 

[MGorse]

2 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Haha, I believe we have but not certain. 2009-2013ish. Larry's friend.. I did the senior project involving northeastern storm chasing. 

Oh okay, yeah may have. 

[anthonyweather]

What’s up fellas. Another year another NAM’D.