tamarack Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 hours ago, The Iceman said: Ask the folks up in NE how the euro did with their last noreaster last week. It and the NAM were showing amped up snow bombs for the interior and the less amped gfs/cmc ruled the roost... And it wasn't even close. Lots of weenies in S.NH and Vermont only saw an inch when the euro/nam were both consistently printing out 12"+ in those areas. They have been consistently over amped in the mid range all fall. Same was true for the Maine foothills. The immediately pre-storm forecast was 12-18 and once the changeover was complete we had all flakes, 6.0" from 1.38" LE - sloppiest significant snow since the mess in late Feb 2010. However, 5 miles to my SE and 400' higher (800 asl) there was about 10", and 40 miles to my north, Carrabassett Valley was reporting 18" (@ 1300'). Hope you folks get pounded, though my snow-loving grandkids a few miles south of Glassboro probably don't see much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kborne Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Is there an estimated start/finish time for the LV? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, Kborne said: Is there an estimated start/finish time for the LV? I’d say start between 12-3 wednesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Take it for what it's worth, watching ch6 (accu-weather) noon news. They have Philly to Allentown in the 6-10" range then Allentown further 10-15". I'll give them credit for throwing a accumulation map out there but seems a tad low for the Burbs...I think people between Philly/Allentown will see more than 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Ukie is 8" on the northern edge of Philly and 1" at the airport lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Ukie is 8" on the northern edge of Philly and 1" at the airport lol Does the UKMet have a lot of sleet for the city? Do you think that kind of cutoff is extreme? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Does the UKMet have a lot of sleet for the city? Do you think that kind of cutoff is extreme? It's likely sleet and mix into the southern burbs and overdone with the snow in that area hope the ECM is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 For reference: Philadelphia’s 30 biggest daily snowfalls: Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Period of record: 1884-10-01 to 2020-12-13 1 27.6 1996-01-07 2 22.5 2009-12-19 3 21.9 2010-02-06 4 21.1 1983-02-11 5 19.4 2016-01-23 6 19.0 1915-04-03 7 16.0 2003-02-16 8 15.5 1909-12-26 9 14.2 2011-01-26 10 13.9 1979-02-19 11 13.5 2014-01-21 12 12.4 1978-02-06 - 12.4 1966-12-24 14 11.9 1935-01-23 15 11.7 1993-03-13 16 11.6 2010-12-26 17 11.0 1902-02-17 18 10.9 1960-12-12 19 10.8 2005-01-22 20 10.6 2006-02-12 21 10.5 1888-03-12 22 10.4 2014-02-13 23 10.0 1900-02-17 - 10.0 1899-02-13 25 9.8 1967-02-07 26 9.6 1958-03-20 27 9.3 2010-02-10 - 9.3 1978-01-20 29 9.2 1945-12-19 - 9.2 1893-01-06 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 ECM is better that the UKMET still has big snow near a foot in Philly and immediate I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Euro is a big hit for most of the region 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 36 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Take it for what it's worth, watching ch6 (accu-weather) noon news. They have Philly to Allentown in the 6-10" range then Allentown further 10-15". I'll give them credit for throwing a accumulation map out there but seems a tad low for the Burbs...I think people between Philly/Allentown will see more than 10". WGAL in Lancaster being conservative as well. Going 6-10 for Reading, Harrisburg and Lancaster. Thought that was kind of conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, BlueDXer75 said: WGAL in Lancaster being conservative as well. Going 6-10 for Reading, Harrisburg and Lancaster. Thought that was kind of conservative We're still 48 hours out. Everywhere is going to be conservative at this stage in the game. Surprised places are throwing totals up yet. Looking good still but we know a lot can change in 24 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, BlueDXer75 said: WGAL in Lancaster being conservative as well. Going 6-10 for Reading, Harrisburg and Lancaster. Thought that was kind of conservative Who know? They may be correct? This is what I'm seeing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: We're still 48 hours out. Everywhere is going to be conservative at this stage in the game. Surprised places are throwing totals up yet. Looking good still but we know a lot can change in 24 hours. Good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Who know? They may be correct? This is what I'm seeing... That looks overdone probably up to the city. More sleet would happen imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Got family in Chambersburg that is projecting as ground zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: That looks overdone probably up to the city. More sleet would happen imo. Oh yeah, I mentioned this in another post. The city is definitely overdone with these maps. (cut by 40-50%) But I think once you hit the burbs you'll see some nice totals as of now.....could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 That zone between I-78, I-80, and I-81 is the place to be for this one. Coal country is gonna get hammered. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: That looks overdone probably up to the city. More sleet would happen imo. Not according to the 1hour euro precip type maps. Sleet line doesn't even hit 95 on the euro. I can't share the whole thing but this as far north as it gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: That zone between I-78, I-80, and I-81 is the place to be for this one. Coal country is gonna get hammered. CCB just rots there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, The Iceman said: CCB just rots there You see that lighter precip near Philly. I garuantee that ends up being sleet if that low ends up in that position, I still think philly can do 4-10 I just think 12+ is way overdon. Wait till NAM gets closer we’ll have a better idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 WXSIM backing off a bit on totals with 12z runs only 14" to 19" now.... Wednesday: Cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. High 33. Wind chill around 21. Wind east-northeast around 8 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the morning, becoming 11 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Wednesday night: Dense overcast. Snow likely. Breezy. Low 29. Wind chill as low as 18. Wind east-northeast around 14 mph, gusting to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 inches. Snow accumulation 12 to 16 inches. Thursday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow in the afternoon. High 30. Wind chill around 22. Wind northeast around 6 mph, gusting to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation about an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 32 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: That zone between I-78, I-80, and I-81 is the place to be for this one. Coal country is gonna get hammered. Would be cool to pitch a tent/camp fire in Centralia and ride the storm out. For sure no one will bother you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, LVblizzard said: That zone between I-78, I-80, and I-81 is the place to be for this one. Coal country is gonna get hammered. Party at my place, up at 1200' in Saylorsburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 DT going a bit more ape-shit than I thought he would... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 18Z 12k nam moved east some, finally stopping the northward crawl or the rain/snow line. I was getting concerned. Hope the other models follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, wkd said: 18Z 12k nam moved east some, finally stopping the northward crawl or the rain/snow line. I was getting concerned. Hope the other models follow. There seems to be a dry slot limiting totals close to the city, though. Hopefully that is just the NAM beyond its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, mattinpa said: There seems to be a dry slot limiting totals close to the city, though. Hopefully that is just the NAM beyond its range. 3k seems juicier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwxHistorian Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Would be cool to pitch a tent/camp fire in Centralia and ride the storm out. For sure no one will bother you... No need for the camp fire - just set up at the cemetery - plenty of heat from the underground inferno!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPotter_WX Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Dumping snow here in the LV Wednesday evening with this depiction from the latest 18Z NAM 3 km. But that dreaded dry slot is quite close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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