Moderately Unstable Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 No I know they're used to indicate a pause or other sort of trail off. More in the context there where the statement was, there will not be 40" of snow (reasonable thing to say given qpfs, you'd need it to be very VERY cold), was more noticing bc that was the second time today I saw Mr. Birds using them in a post and it felt like it diminished the valid statement of fact. I'm realllly splitting hairs here and this is ot, I'm just pointing out the idea of, ya know, if you have a good thought or fact, a full stop period is good. Helpful content either way. The last post there "the euro will save the day", made sense with the ... I'm fun at parties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: No I know they're used to indicate a pause or other sort of trail off. More in the context there where the statement was, there will not be 40" of snow (reasonable thing to say given qpfs, you'd need it to be very VERY cold), was more noticing bc that was the second time today I saw Mr. Birds using them in a post and it felt like it diminished the valid statement of fact. I'm realllly splitting hairs here and this is ot, I'm just pointing out the idea of, ya know, if you have a good thought or fact, a full stop period is good. Helpful content either way. The last post there "the euro will save the day", made sense with the ... I'm fun at parties. "The Debater", lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 ECM is as amped as the UKMET 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Coastal is over Delaware Bay, then rockets east GFS style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Euro run is horrible. No one from I-95 east is getting more than slop with that track. Let’s hope the GFS holds serve. The Euro has been over amping some coastal storms in our area the last few years so we have hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, RedSky said: Coastal is over Delaware Bay, then rockets east GFS style Yeah kind of has more wrap around though. Not the solution you want for philly. Even the Max axis is pushed into NAM world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Euro run is horrible. No one from I-95 east is getting more than slop with that track. Let’s hope the GFS holds serve. The Euro has been over amping some coastal storms in our area the last few years so we have hope. Wouldn’t sweat it. If by 00z tomorrow all the models show this then it’s time to write off philly getting more than 8. Even with this run though philly manages some front and back end i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 14" for Philly with that track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: 14" for Philly with that track That’s what surprised me, but in SV you see why since ULL gets more tucked it slows down we get the back end. Idk if it’s counting sleet as snow though so no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: 14" for Philly with that track Didn't see that coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 This is 2009-10 but displaced 140 miles north, and I couldn't be happier for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I don't buy 14 with that much mixing for the city. If that verified, it's going to significantly cut down the totals. Perhaps 14" of snow will fall...mixed with rain, mixed with sleet, etc. I would go with 6-8" for the city if that ended up happening accounting for overrunning and back end. But that puts the city in a dicey situation if the dry slot precludes some of the back end potential. Models vary run to run, still time, fingers crossed. Also note that the ratio there is 1:10. We should expect 1:7. This will be a wet snow. Note that the euro run suggests 6.7" of snow will fall in Philly in the 6 hour interval in which the precip pane shows a mix. That means (a) it is counting snow in that, (b) that seems questionable. I'm turning in, later folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Looks like Monmouth an ocean counties are in trouble with these tracks. Sucks trying to get a snow storm in these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: That’s what surprised me, but in SV you see why since ULL gets more tucked it slows down we get the back end. Idk if it’s counting sleet as snow though so no clue. I always thought sleet/snow are counted the same...not completely sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 32 minutes ago, RedSky said: 14" for Philly with that track Horrible run! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 On one hand the 6z NAM comes in and wants to bullseye Western PA.....then the RGEM comes out moments later and I damn near pass out seeing 2-3' across SE PA. Epic model war. One of these mesos is about to fail miserably. Truth probably lies in between? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: On one hand the 6z NAM comes in and wants to bullseye Western PA.....then the RGEM comes out moments later and I damn near pass out seeing 2-3' across SE PA. Epic model war. One of these mesos is about to fail miserably. Truth probably lies in between? so Im guessing the Nam must be cutting the Low inland like over Philly? but if Im reading things correctly inland solution is unlikely due to the placement of the HP in Canada correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: On one hand the 6z NAM comes in and wants to bullseye Western PA.....then the RGEM comes out moments later and I damn near pass out seeing 2-3' across SE PA. Epic model war. One of these mesos is about to fail miserably. Truth probably lies in between? 6 nam was ugly rgem is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Kuchera must see it coming down in cats paws clumps to hit these numbers WOWGood thing I have the chirp wheel!!Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 This is 2009-10 but displaced 140 miles north, and I couldn't be happier for that. Careful. 2010 was religious in SoMoCo. 6ft base at our house. Drifts to 15ft. We would leave the pocono cabin and wait for my friend and his bucket loader to open our driveway.....week after week.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 6z NAM vs 6z RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 This hobby sucks sometimes lol. Tough runs by the EE rule models at 6z. Drastically need a shift SE soon! I don’t want to chase to Pittsburgh lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 To me it’s pretty obvious the rgem is dead wrong. The major models disagree right now. Itll Shift Nw soon. The Max snowfall strip won’t be over or near the City. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 GEFS continues to tick SE. Not sure how reliable the ens are at a 60 hr range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: To me it’s pretty obvious the rgem is dead wrong. The major models disagree right now. Itll Shift Nw soon. The Max snowfall strip won’t be over or near the City. Have to agree. I'm 50 miles west of the city in eastern Lancaster County but this most recent NAM run has mixing probably up to Allentown. At this point, I'd be happy with a few hours of heavy front end stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: To me it’s pretty obvious the rgem is dead wrong. The major models disagree right now. Itll Shift Nw soon. The Max snowfall strip won’t be over or near the City. Rgem is probably closer wrt the banding features than most globals. Just a matter of pinpointing where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Rgem is probably closer wrt the banding features than most globals. Just a matter of pinpointing where. Nam is awfully until 24 hours out. Once in a while it scores a touch down at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Animal said: Nam is awfully until 24 hours out. Once in a while it scores a touch down at this range. 6z Euro followed the NAM...mixing into the LV. So like the op said, rgem is likely out to lunch. Going to be intense banding somewhere N and W tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 hours ago, RedSky said: This is 2009-10 but displaced 140 miles north, and I couldn't be happier for that. I remember that winter quite well. Every storm ran into dry air/confluence right at the Blue Mountain. The gradient was so bad in one storm that Allentown got 16 inches and I got 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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