MPotter_WX Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Believe it or not the NAM has had "wins" but it's such an outlier right now. Give it a day it will come around... Look no further than the 2016 blizzard. Had it nailed from the get go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 RGEM is insane for SE PA. Epic banding. 24" lolli a few miles from me. Saving this map for archival purposes. Doubt that even comes close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: Remind me, where does the ICON rank in terms of performance versus the gfs euro and ukmet for Philly? Not super familiar w/ICON. A few steps below the major models (GFS, EURO, CMC) but one step above the jv models (NAVGEM, JMA). Probably could be compared to the ukie. It is notorious for screwing up thermals and doesn't show mixing....either snow or rain. Use it for general guidance and to see which other models it trends towards and that can provide some useful clues for forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kickingupastorm Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Im a lurker who only shows up for both hurricanes, and winter storms. I don’t know much, but I do skim this forum for many, many years - and have learnt from you all in the process Anyway, what’s the timing for this storm - when I’m Weds are we expecting it to start? Morning, Noon, Early Afternoon....? I’m in Ardmore, PA - Montgomery County. Keep the excellent work going, I’ll continue to lurk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPotter_WX Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, kickingupastorm said: Im a lurker who only shows up for both hurricanes, and winter storms. I don’t know much, but I do skim this forum for many, many years - and have learnt from you all in the process Anyway, what’s the timing for this storm - when I’m Weds are we expecting it to start? Morning, Noon, Early Afternoon....? I’m in Ardmore, PA - Montgomery County. Keep the excellent work going, I’ll continue to lurk. Timing seems to be set for start early afternoon on Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 GFS is another dumping for us. No red flags, steady as she goes. Eta: Light snow thru Thursday evening wow. 24 hrs+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPotter_WX Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 GFS is much more suppressed and keeps the UL vort more disorganized. Good hit for SE PA with no mixing. Doesn’t even have 12” for the LV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS is another dumping for us. No red flags, steady as she goes. Eta: Light snow thru Thursday evening wow. 24 hrs+ No red flags? Us northern folk are one more GFS trend south of a pixie dust car topper lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS is another dumping for us. No red flags, steady as she goes. Eta: Light snow thru Thursday evening wow. 24 hrs+ Nice damn run! Just lock this one up! And it does linger which is cool. I like shoveling/snow blowing while some light stuff still falls... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, MPotter_WX said: GFS is much more suppressed and keeps the UL vort more disorganized. Good hit for SE PA with no mixing. Doesn’t even have 12” for the LV. Not sure I trust the GFS for qpf depiction. Always seems tight with gradients and less expansive than say the Euro or the mesos in that regard. Tends to run drier overall as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 29 minutes ago, MPotter_WX said: GFS is much more suppressed and keeps the UL vort more disorganized. Good hit for SE PA with no mixing. Doesn’t even have 12” for the LV. You're right on less vort org. Less than both the last several model runs of the gfs & the latest runs from the other models. Interesting that it lingers as well, that is significant but needs to be matched with the other models. So far that's an outlier...most runs of stuff' have been progressive. Could that be the "why" for its subsequent theory of lingering snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Throw out the GFS. That isn’t happening. In fact if the snow map looks anything like tonight’s run I’ll video tape me running nude down broad street. Philly will be in that 5-10 range most likely. Their biggest issue will be subsidence/mix. In fact I’d venture to say the city will see heavier snow rates in the front end of the storm than during the peak. There’s going to Be many jealous posters on here most likely during Wednesday night. Not that 5-10 is bad at all lol. Just sayin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I think tonight’s cmc is the most realistic outcome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPotter_WX Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Canadian shows a jackpot of 24”+ for the LV! I’m good if we can stop here, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Throw out the GFS. That isn’t happening. In fact if the snow map looks anything like tonight’s run I’ll video tape me running nude down broad street. Philly will be in that 5-10 range most likely. Their biggest issue will be subsidence/mix. In fact I’d venture to say the city will see heavier snow rates in the front end of the storm than during the peak. There’s going to Be many jealous posters on here most likely during Wednesday night. Not that 5-10 is bad at all lol. Just sayin That sounds about right. Once in the Burbs things will increase quite a bit IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 I'm genuinely confused. Why does everyone say 5-10 in the city when none of the models say that? Even the cmc yields 11, and that's the low estimate. There's lots of precip, and it's cold. What am I not understanding? Not trying to be aggressive or wishcast--I genuinely do not see 5-10 being shown on anything. Models have stayed very consistent. That means, the maps are not clown maps: they agree with each other more or less. Like if someone wants to explain why all of the guidance is wrong, I'm all ears. But if it isn't, Philly gets 8-12 as I said earlier today, and stand by now. I'm happy to lie in that grave if I'm wrong, it isn't a bold prediction. It is true that most of the time the burbs see more than the city. That doesn't mean the city gets 6" though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: RGEM is insane for SE PA. Epic banding. 24" lolli a few miles from me. Saving this map for archival purposes. Doubt that even comes close. As in... Buckingham, PA!!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 i just cannot believe these snow maps. I all my years on this forum, I have never seen a clown map show such high snow totals. Even we get half of this, it is an ass kicking storm event with many hours of blizzard/whiteout condition as and record setting hourly snowfall rates and convective ( thunders snow) banding. This will be a storm to remember like 93 and 96 if it pans out. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Albedoman said: i just cannot believe these snow maps. I all my years on this forum, I have never seen a clown map show such high snow totals. Even we get half of this, it is an ass kicking storm event with many hours of blizzard/whiteout condition as and record setting hourly snowfall rates and convective ( thunders snow) banding. This will be a storm to remember like 93 and 96 if it pans out. Tread lightly... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Albedoman said: i just cannot believe these snow maps. I all my years on this forum, I have never seen a clown map show such high snow totals. Even we get half of this, it is an ass kicking storm event with many hours of blizzard/whiteout condition as and record setting hourly snowfall rates and convective ( thunders snow) banding. This will be a storm to remember like 93 and 96 if it pans out. This doesn’t have the duration or strength even close to either of them. The qpf maps will be too Juiced. I’m excited too, but I think 24” Max is where expectations should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: This doesn’t have the duration or strength even close to either of them. The qpf maps will be too Juiced. I’m excited too, but I think 24” Max is where expectations should be. 40"+ on those maps is completely nuts and unrealistic...25- 30" would be huge stretch. Upper teens/low 20s should be the max... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: 40"+ on those maps is completely nuts and unrealistic...25- 30" would be huge stretch. Upper teens/low 20s should be the max... Why ... and not . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 40 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: I'm genuinely confused. Why does everyone say 5-10 in the city when none of the models say that? Even the cmc yields 11, and that's the low estimate. There's lots of precip, and it's cold. What am I not understanding? Not trying to be aggressive or wishcast--I genuinely do not see 5-10 being shown on anything. Models have stayed very consistent. That means, the maps are not clown maps: they agree with each other more or less. Like if someone wants to explain why all of the guidance is wrong, I'm all ears. But if it isn't, Philly gets 8-12 as I said earlier today, and stand by now. I'm happy to lie in that grave if I'm wrong, it isn't a bold prediction. It is true that most of the time the burbs see more than the city. That doesn't mean the city gets 6" though. Because the snow maps are likely wrong away from the deformation zone. I put 5 just in case mixing gets to city, and 10 if it doesn’t. It’s also based on history of how these storms play out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: Why ... and not . .qpf amounts....30-40" snow is quite a bit. If it stalled and hung around, maybe. But thinking 1.5-2.5" max .qpf doesn't equal 30-40" unless there are high ratios which there won't be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: Why ... and not . Models always overdo qpf. I’ll let the pros answer, idk I just don’t see the duration with this one to hit 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: .qpf amounts....30-40" snow is quite a bit. If it stalled and hung around, maybe. But thinking 1.5-2.5" max .qpf doesn't equal 30-40" unless there are high ratios which there won't be... I agreed with your post more was asking why you used the ellipses instead of just stating it as a fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Ukie is an I95 corridor sweating bullets run, GFS is looking lonely on it's island 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Birds~69 said: .qpf amounts....30-40" snow is quite a bit. If it stalled and hung around, maybe. But thinking 1.5-2.5" max .qpf doesn't equal 30-40" unless there is high ratios which there won't be... Exactly. You’ll likely only see those ratios where the best lift is and then the qpf is overdone and we’re at best talking 11-12/1...years ago I’d be telling my friends 30-40 is coming to E PA but I’ve learned through the years what actually happens when you account modeling issues. Philly is also going to have shit ratios if they get in that subsidence region. ..I think the snow early on will fall heavy in philly, then the best lift shoots to the NW and lighter precip will kind of be stuck over the city. It’ll be snow most likely, but 5-10 for philly is the best call right now. What you need to do is look for clues in the modeling a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: I agreed with your post more was asking why you used the ellipses instead of just staying it as a fact. I love ellipses for...some reason lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Ukie is an I95 corridor sweating bullets run, GFS is looking lonely on it's island Euro will come in and save the day..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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