BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 That high is just moving too fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 We’re not going to know where this is headed until the storm is here. Models have virtually zero agreement on how to handle the high to the NE, the primary in the Ohio valley, and in turn, the SLP / 850 low track. Just the slightest over amplification or under amplification of the primary in the OV throws the entire storm into limbo. Yes, this often doesn’t end well... but the overwhelming majority of ensembles look much better than the OP with the location of the SLP. The mouth of the bay versus 50 miles offshore makes or breaks the entire storm for the eastern half of the cwa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 43 minutes ago, yoda said: I hate to say it, but that is an unbelievably good catch by Eric. I’ve spent a lot of time focusing on model disco at both the synoptic and mesoscale the last several days, but at a regional parsing, and not at full broad scale look at the impending 5H pattern. Discernible differences like that can make or break a forecast. Those s/w progressions, especially one as small and later developing can have major downstream implications. PSU did a fantastic job outlining the “Death by a 1000 cuts” mantra. It doesn’t take one big thing to ruin a forecast, but small changes in both a synoptic and mesoscale sense can cause shifts in setups like this. High further NE and more western trek of an SLP will cause a large u-vector anomaly of the wind field, allowing the low-level easterlies to protrude way beyond the scope of where we were thinking 24 hrs ago. I’m gonna have to adjust my totals most likely due to the current state of guidance. I do see the 81 crew still doing the best here. HREF is very interesting to say the least, so I’ll have to dig more into that. It’s a phenomenal tool to use for situations like this, for ZR events, and especially for severe. Absolutely good bookmark. I’m really tired. My neighbor set off a car alarm outside and it woke me up a bit earlier than normal for the PM. I’m heading back to bed. I hope my previous discos can sustain merit with the new trends, and don’t sway people to take my posts with a grain salt. I was just reporting my thoughts based on the model trends at hand. I wish I wasn’t on mids so I could delve more into the nitty gritty. Edit: I had to switch to the PC and post this since Tapatalk absolutely butchered this post. Sorry for the repost. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 It looks like the low tracks west of the Bay through the Northern Neck to just east of Baltimore over the Bay. by tomorrow, it’ll be over Fairfax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 EURO went even more west. Would definitely an outlier in its 6z ensembles, but not sure that matters. Still get 2" from the initial thump, even in the city. Better measure it before the rain begins to really ramp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: EURO went even more east. Would definitely an outlier in its 6z ensembles, but not sure that matters. Still get 2" from the initial thump, even in the city. Better measure it before the rain begins to really ramp up. Euro went East or west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: We’re not going to know where this is headed... I hate to say it but deep down I think we all know where this is headed. We just don't want to accept it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 There's even a mixing zone over the Poconos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Yeah, WAA thump looks better for most of us. A lot like the mesoscale models. But then rain and not much after it pulls away because it's too far northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, AdamHLG said: I hate to say it but deep down I think we all know where this is headed. We just don't want to accept it. Just trying to stay positive for my fellow weenies closer to the coast. Although, I’m starting to feel a little uneasy about a sleet / FRZ RN fest up here as well if the bleeding doesn’t stop soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Euro went East or west? west. my bad. i'll edit it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: west. my bad. i'll edit it. All good. Had me excited for a moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Next (For DC)....If you're west enough it is a pretty sound thumping...better than 6z Been thinking maybe 1-3 and then slop for a couple days now. Still thinking that way (at least for me in NW). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, A777 said: I am still thinking the true LP positioning is going to end up over the DE bay where the other closed isobar is. Euro does do what the GFS looked to do and wrap the cold air in with a quicker change in wind direction to get rid of the SE winds. Provided we had a decent track, this would be a good run, but re PSU's thoughts earlier, further west is never what we want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Euro even flipping CHO to plain rain on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, A777 said: LOL. Amazing how far this has slowly shifted each run for days now. I would say I'll go outside and look up and watch it go over my head, but at this rate, it will probably be over Hagerstown come tomorrow night. I'm expecting pretty much nothing now. Really was looking forward to this one, especially since my kids weren't old enough to remember 2016 and haven't seen a big one yet. That said, I feel really awful for anyone pretty far NW when it looked like no matter what, they were safe. Hope they can still manage to turn things around and have it break right for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 That is a pretty consistent track from the Euro, GFS and UK. And a thumping west of town for sure on all three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Do these maps ever verify???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said: Do these maps ever verify???? slice them in half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, blizzardmeiser said: Do these maps ever verify???? I was gonna share a similar sentiment...If you ask me these things need to wither be retired or redone to spit out more reasonable solutions. Not saying I believe snow depth maps much...but needless to say they create a confusing illusion for some. It's like constantly overdone maps with ridiculous totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Ji said: slice them in half Why can't they make the supercomputer do that? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: LOL. Amazing how far this has slowly shifted each run for days now. I would say I'll go outside and look up and watch it go over my head, but at this rate, it will probably be over Hagerstown come tomorrow night. I'm expecting pretty much nothing now. Really was looking forward to this one, especially since my kids weren't old enough to remember 2016 and haven't seen a big one yet. That said, I feel really awful for anyone pretty far NW when it looked like no matter what, they were safe. Hope they can still manage to turn things around and have it break right for them. It's disappointing, but no guidance gives you and I nothing. I'd say you still have a pretty decent chance at WSW verification. Much less chance for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Still 24 hours of runs for the NW crew to get shafted. This thing looks better for northern NH every run so probably a bad sign for down here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I leave for an hour and the whole thread gets shut down. euro must have been terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 26 minutes ago, mappy said: I leave for an hour and the whole thread gets shut down. euro must have been terrible. Actually I think you'd take the euro and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Actually I think you'd take the euro and run. I checked after I got out of a meeting. Wasn't the worst. Better than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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