catoctin wx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Do ensemble max charts even belong here? ha. Well that's a fair question. Gotta keep the morale up or things will get ugly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: So, what do we look for now for some last minute respite? Here's a good place to start 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 UKIE is gonna be a nice hit west of town. Looks a lot like the GFS actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: UKIE is gonna be a nice hit west of town. Looks a lot like the GFS actually. Pics or it never happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Do ensemble max charts even belong here? Only dropping it in for the fun of it! The mean is of course what we should be looking at. Though some features are maybe easier to see in something like the max, like the frederick jackpot. There's already some better snowfall there in the mean to hint at better rates there but the max really highlights that at least one of the models in the blend likes that area. For what it's worth, the 00z run ALSO pegged northern Frederick for good totals through 00z Thursday, which is why I'm keen to see how that verifies. It's visible on both the mean and max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxbeaz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Death by a thousand paper cuts. The high has trended SLIGHTLY NE of where it was days ago. The confluence in the NE weakened some. The 50/50 moves out slightly faster...and the storm slowed down 6-12 hours...increasing the spacing between the two and allowing for more ridging in front of it. I was always bothered by how far west the upper level trough was going neutral and starting to lift, we needed all those other things to offset and they went the wrong way. Some problems that I think the globals had a hard time seeing at range...that are now coming into focus (NAM saw it from jump) was the without a closed off mid and upper level circulation (ERS talked about this) there is nothing to stop the easterly flow north of the low from blasting way NW. Add in all the warm water and that is shifting the boundary west...and the low track right with it. I don't think there is any one thing to point to that did this...it was a lot of things that all went the wrong way...and that was partly why this was a slow bleed and not a sudden shift. No one factor suddenly got a LOT worse...they all just degraded along the margins a little. IMO what hurt us most was just a little too much spacing between the 50/50 combined with the trough digging in a little too far west then lifting instead of amplifying along the east coast. The other factors like warm water and less confluence and shallow cold could have overcome that if they had all trended perfectly...but the warts in the overall synoptic setup required a lot else to go perfect...for a time it seemed like they all would. you're analysis is always impeccable. are you saying this is a fail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Pics or it never happened 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Western shift is due to the following 3 things 1. The troff keeps trending, slower with higher heights ahead of it. 2. #1 is really bad when there is a high moving offshore. 3. The primary in the OV keeps trending stronger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Can we see a 0z for comparison? Almost time for the Euro to pull the ole Lucy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Ah, the low at the classic Philadelphia benchmark. Thanks UKMET 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Can we see a 0z for comparison? Almost time for the Euro to pull the ole Lucy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On 12/14/2020 at 10:50 AM, mattie g said: Let's just run this thing up the Shenandoah Valley and so we can all be miserable together! 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: There’s that ccw turn showing again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 UK tracks the low from the mouth of the bay to just south of Philly to due east off the coast of central Jersey. Wild man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: UK tracks the low from the mouth of the bay to just south of Philly to due east of the coast of central Jersey. Wild man. Because it heads due east from Philly, the mid levels would crash and cause us to go back to snow if it happened exactly as depicted on the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Because it heads due east from Philly, the mid levels would crash and cause us to go back to snow if it happened exactly as depicted on the UK. Yeah. You can see it in the 850 wind charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I fully recognize the ensembles are not that relevant at this point, but it is odd to see them well east of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 On mobile, but about half the GEFS members take the low SE of the opp, less than a handful west. Too close in to take ground truth verbatim, but hopefully the east side of that envelope prevails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You have forgotten more weather than I’ll ever know but I have to say that I don’t agree with this. It seems everyone just looks at the letters L and H but never at the isobars. At 36 the gfs has the lowest pressure over Norfolk. Same as previous run. At 42 the lowest pressures are well off shore where as at 6z they were right over Ocean City. Just my take. This is what I saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I fully recognize the ensembles are not that relevant at this point, but it is odd to see them well east of the OP. Literally posted at the exact same time on this. That can't hurt us to see regardless of range/res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 It seems really quiet on here all of a sudden. I guess we are all on pins and needs waiting for the almighty Euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gisman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Ok, I was planning for a family chase to decent snows for a couple nights, but now I am confused whether there would be much of a payoff anymore. Was thinking Rocky Gap state park for its pleasant surroundings. Worth it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 49 minutes ago, wxtrix said: our upper air temps never go above freezing on that run so i don't think it's west. Surface track was west...mid level results were better due to a better close off of the mid and upper level circulations earlier. That would lead to a tighter wound system...which is good if you have an inside track. There was a lot to like in the 12z GFS I was just pointing out that the larger trend of the track shifting west did not halt, that was the bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Surface track was west...mid level results were better due to a better close off of the mid and upper level circulations earlier. That would lead to a tighter wound system...which is good if you have an inside track. There was a lot to like in the 12z GFS I was just pointing out that the larger trend of the track shifting west did not halt, that was the bad. I'm mobile, do you have access to the ML depictions on the Euro to see if it has the ML/UL circulations closed off and thats part of its reason on better thermals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is what I saw And I would have agreed if I saw those maps. I was going off of TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 My brain is fried so I might be wrong. But I think WeatherUS has the hi rez Euro out already for 12Z. If it is the 12Z run the Euro will hold for west of town. So hard to see anything on that site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 HREF is sleet-o-mania. Some of our best storms have suffered from mid-storm sleet-poisoning. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=qpf_001h_mean_ptype§or=conus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 At least we still have the RGEM 850mb wraparound mesobomb to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The high on the euro initialized due north of Pittsburgh and due east of Minneapolis fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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