WesternFringe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: LOL that takes me from 3 to 10 inches. Not buying. Just conveying what the model is showing, using positive snow depth change to avoid counting sleet, and it is showing an improvement for many (the most populous areas in this forum). In reality, you never had 3" before and you don't have 10" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, Amped said: In 2017 GFS' had the snow sleet line 50 miles too far SE and it underdid the warm layer by about 4C You're trying too hard....this was a clown post bro 1 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Snow maps still have me in the sad Ellinwood grey zone of nothingness so can't say GFS was great for ALL of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: We gotta be smart about these maps. We all know they aren’t to be taken verbatim but Baltimore city isn’t getting 8” and glen Burnie gets 3-4” when they have the same elevation. That rate of difference in snow totals will be elevation based. Also, I don't see the Inner Harbor with full UHI outperforming BWI in this one being so thermals dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Never thought I'd be hugging the GFS over the NAM with a storm 24hrs away 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Never thought I'd be hugging the GFS over the NAM with a storm 24hrs away At least you aren't hugging the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: At least you aren't hugging the ICON. Depends, is it worth hugging? I missed what it showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The valley doesn’t have mountains surrounding it high enough to trap cold at 850 Not yet, but there is still 24 hours to go. Time to pin hopes on plate tectonics or volcanology. Add that to the MA bingo board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 16 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Agreed, there's not a primary present but if you see what I just said to Joe and he confirmed is we want to see this thing close off in the ML's and have the winds not vector out of the SE pumping in the WAA for the entirely of the low's track to our latitude. I agree with you. I tend to look at the surface and neglect the upper levels. Get them to close off and I think the wrapped look returns and most of us win with a backside burst or snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Depends, is it worth hugging? I missed what it showed. It's better than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I think the cold air source will be less tepid and shallow than is popularly discussed. It began to establish itself late last night and is not the stale 48 hour stuff that often messes us up, tight nowIm 38/20 with a 30.28. That’s near perfection and other time in the past when things appeared more optimistic I never got into an ideal range like described currently its going to be a nowcast event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 From 12z we are still over 24 hours from blastoff. Don’t think that we can’t improve in that time period. It is most definitely possible. Minute changes can be huge when it concerns snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The GFS stays all snow west of the Blue Ridge from roughly Luray north and west. It is too close for comfort. But we hug it until the Euro folds like a cheap suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: From 12z we are still over 24 hours from blastoff. Don’t think that we can’t improve in that time period. It is most definitely possible. Minute changes can be huge when it concerns snowfall. Someone needs to tell the 12z CMC that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GEM is an ice bomb for the 81 corridor. Tracks the low over the mouth of the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: GEM is an ice bomb for the 81 corridor. The GEM is the only 12z model that got worse for us so far thankfully. We're gonna need the Euro to hold up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The GEM is awful. We all know the Euro is what we are all gonna hang on, as we should 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I don't know if I really view the GFS as a reversal of the trend. It shifted the low track NW. That is the trend...all our other problems come from the fact the low keeps trending west with every run. Within that the GFS improved on some meso features that helped us out. An earlier close of the mid level circulation and such a more tightly wound system. And that worked for us wrt snowfall. But that is a meso detail within the larger scale...and on the larger scale the trend was another shift west in the low track. It is fine to celebrate the good things about this GFS run but we shouldn't overlook the bad. If the trend in the track were to halt NOW and adjust east slightly we are still close enough (NW of 95) to salvage things if the details like early close of the mid levels and banding and fast WAA thump go our way. So its good to see some of that on the GFS. But we need the larger trend with the track of the system to stop or it wont make any difference. If this tracks up west of the bay no one in here is going to be happy no matter how the meso nowcast details shake out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The GEM is awful. We all know the Euro is what we are all gonna hang on, as we should I mean even the ICON improved at 12z which has been one of our worst models to this point on the storm but in reality was more accurate with the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 20 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: We gotta be smart about these maps. We all know they aren’t to be taken verbatim but Baltimore city isn’t getting 8” and glen Burnie gets 3-4” when they have the same elevation. That rate of difference in snow totals will be elevation based. Subtract big time in areas that show sleet and freezing rain. WB GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I don't know if I really view the GFS as a reversal of the trend. It shifted the low track NW. That is the trend...all our other problems come from the fact the low keeps trending west with every run. Within that the GFS improved on some meso features that helped us out. An earlier close of the mid level circulation and such a more tightly wound system. And that worked for us wrt snowfall. But that is a meso detail within the larger scale...and on the larger scale the trend was another shift west in the low track. It is fine to celebrate the good things about this GFS run but we shouldn't overlook the bad. If the trend in the track were to halt NOW and adjust east slightly we are still close enough (NW of 95) to salvage things if the details like early close of the mid levels and banding and fast WAA thump go our way. So its good to see some of that on the GFS. But we need the larger trend with the track of the system to stop or it wont make any difference. If this tracks up west of the bay no one in here is going to be happy no matter how the meso nowcast details shake out. I agree with you on this. It does seem like the meso features help the thermals quite a bit on the GFS wrt evolution, and as I pointed out the ML's closing off. Agreed though that a track up the bay to NAK isn't going to get it done. The double barrel low structure we have seen on a number of models is still a bit puzzling to me, and I've dug into the mid level maps to see if that's warranted. I wonder realistically if that's driven by convection on some models since the UL features don't align with the base of the trough putting a low over the middle of the Chesapeake. I'm still liking a track from VA beach to east of SBY (hopefully on the coast of OC) north to Lewes before going more ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 HREF ensemble shows Snow-Mix-Snow for Baltimore, Snow-Mix-Rain-Snow for DC. 2-4 inches for the former and maybe an inch for the latter through 00z Thursday. No back end snow totals shown yet but it looks like there will be a couple hours of it for Baltimore and not much for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: The GEM is the only 12z model that got worse for us so far thankfully. We're gonna need the Euro to hold up. I don't agree. There are meso scale features to any run that might change the exact snow/ice output on some snowmap for a specific location. But the trend killing us is the NW shift in the low track. It's been relentless for 48 hours...it started as a very slow bleed that was hardly noticeable run to run but it where there...and its accelerated the last 3 runs. The 12z guidance shifted west again...across EVERYTHING i saw. Some of the runs had a better snow result for a specific spot due to a meso scale feature within the run...but across the board the track was a bad move. And that is way more important because those meso details will change every run and be a nowcast thing...but if that track keeps adjusting west it won't matter. Every shift west reduces the chances of all those meso features to help much. I think we have reached the stage where a lot of people are grasping at straws and holding on tight to whatever little speck of data they can find to give hope. I get it. I really do. But I just can't do the blinders bad analysis thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't agree. There are meso scale features to any run that might change the exact snow/ice output on some snowmap for a specific location. But the trend killing us is the NW shift in the low track. It's been relentless for 48 hours...it started as a very slow bleed that was hardly noticeable run to run but it where there...and its accelerated the last 3 runs. The 12z guidance shifted west again...across EVERYTHING i saw. Some of the runs had a better snow result for a specific spot due to a meso scale feature within the run...but across the board the track was a bad move. And that is way more important because those meso details will change every run and be a nowcast thing...but if that track keeps adjusting west it won't matter. Every shift west reduces the chances of all those meso features to help much. I think we have reached the stage where a lot of people are grasping at straws and holding on tight to whatever little speck of data they can find to give hope. I get it. I really do. But I just can't do the blinders bad analysis thing. psu what is causing the western shift of the track? Is it a more wound up system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't know if I really view the GFS as a reversal of the trend. It shifted the low track NW. That is the trend...all our other problems come from the fact the low keeps trending west with every run. Within that the GFS improved on some meso features that helped us out. An earlier close of the mid level circulation and such a more tightly wound system. And that worked for us wrt snowfall. But that is a meso detail within the larger scale...and on the larger scale the trend was another shift west in the low track. It is fine to celebrate the good things about this GFS run but we shouldn't overlook the bad. If the trend in the track were to halt NOW and adjust east slightly we are still close enough (NW of 95) to salvage things if the details like early close of the mid levels and banding and fast WAA thump go our way. So its good to see some of that on the GFS. But we need the larger trend with the track of the system to stop or it wont make any difference. If this tracks up west of the bay no one in here is going to be happy no matter how the meso nowcast details shake out. You have forgotten more weather than I’ll ever know but I have to say that I don’t agree with this. It seems everyone just looks at the letters L and H but never at the isobars. At 36 the gfs has the lowest pressure over Norfolk. Same as previous run. At 42 the lowest pressures are well off shore where as at 6z they were right over Ocean City. Just my take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, baltosquid said: HREF ensemble shows Snow-Mix-Snow for Baltimore, Snow-Mix-Rain-Snow for DC. 2-4 inches for the former and maybe an inch for the latter through 00z Thursday. No back end snow totals shown yet but it looks like there will be a couple hours of it for Baltimore and not much for DC. The 12z HREF ensemble is actually a touch colder than it's 00z counterpart. I do not know the blend of what goes into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I don’t agree that it came more NW from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 21 hours ago, Ellinwood said: Updated my snow map... cut down on the total on the eastern gradient (mainly DC up I-95 and through southern and central NJ). Increased totals along the Appalachians. No changes... gradient area near I-95 is boom or bust at this point. Leaning slightly toward bust near I-95, but this isn't worth micro-editing. 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: The 12z HREF ensemble is actually colder than it's 00z counterpart. I do not know the blend of what goes into it. HRRR, HRRR 6h, HRW ARW, HRW ARW 12h, HRW NMMB, HRW NMMB 12h, HRW NSSL, HRW NSSL 12h, NAM CONUS Nest, NAM CONUS Nest 12h SPC HREF Ensemble Viewer - 500 mb wind/height, ens mean (noaa.gov) They've got a surprisingly good interface imo. At least compared to some other .gov sites lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Ellinwood said: No changes... gradient area near I-95 is boom or bust at this point. Leaning slightly toward bust near I-95, but this isn't worth micro-editing. Yeah I’m thinking @North Balti Zen should stay the course on his planned trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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