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December 16/17 Winter Event


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7 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

@CAPE The 12z euro.. wow. I might be back in soon. You could practically see over a foot of snow on the ground from your backyard even with only 3-5 inches OTG if you look to your north.

Edit: We're only in above freezing 850s for a few hours.. then we get crushed

Who cares what the wonky surface maps look like. This looks interesting.

1608195600-3uizR98j6M0.png

 

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Who cares what the wonky surface maps look like. This looks interesting.

1608195600-3uizR98j6M0.png

 

Noticed this wonky stripe through the corridor on the run to run tab on weatherbell for the 850s. Take this out and it’s a cleaner regional improvement in upper level temps. 

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3 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

Does anyone know what the thermals looked like heading in to 2009?  I know it broke way colder than it was supposed to.. but I am curious to know how it was forecasted leading up to the event.

Yeah, I feel like almost every major coastal storm we have, temps are often much colder when the storm hits than modeled, but I could be wrong. 

That was a great run. Just the smallest southeast adjustments over the next few runs puts the immediate metro areas in the boom zone.

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8 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

My money is still on KING gfs. It's clear the Euro was moving towards the gfs solution. :snowing:

The last 4 runs of the euro have been extremely consistent... the fact that r/s line is so close to the major cities is causing the totals to vary so much in our backyards.. GFS has been consistent for the last 7 runs.

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2 minutes ago, Negnao said:

Noticed this wonky stripe through the corridor on the run to run tab on weatherbell for the 850s. Take this out and it’s a cleaner regional improvement in upper level temps. 

That's banding.  Descending air on either wide of the deathband creates warming.  Notice the very cold (comparatively) temperatures just east of it.  @CAPE and @JakkelWx are turned on by that.  

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4 minutes ago, Negnao said:

Noticed this wonky stripe through the corridor on the run to run tab on weatherbell for the 850s. Take this out and it’s a cleaner regional improvement in upper level temps. 

This is on a lot of guidance. Think it has to do with how the ULLs are being stacked. Looking like a less beefy 2016 here in Philly where we get some snow and then the deformation zone heads NW 

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I am mostly happy with this run.  It was a much colder run, especially at the surface.  Never gets places from 95 NW above freezing.  Probably means more sleet then rain during the "mixy" period.  Unfortunately a slightly more tucked in track mean't it did blast a warm layer pretty far west at 850...it gets right to my doorstep at its furthest NW.  For big totalys into 95 we would want to see that surface track judge just a bit southeast...but the good news is if the euro and ggem are correct on the colder thermal structure of the storm we wouldn't need the track to adjust all the way to the GFS.  That's good because in the end I expect a 60/40 compromise track between the usually progressive GFS and the usually amped euro, biased toward the euro, to be reality.  That is going to cut it really close for getting big totals into 95.  But if we adjust the euro just a slight bit southeast on the surface track it gets it done.  

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17 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah, I feel like almost every major coastal storm we have, temps are often much colder when the storm hits than modeled, but I could be wrong. 

That was a great run. Just the smallest southeast adjustments over the next few runs puts the immediate metro areas in the boom zone.

I would be watching the strength of the low more than the track.. I mean the track is important and we can get screwed with a LP center over Annapolis... but I think if we get an early bomb off the coast of SC... that can act to draw in more cold air.. but I am not sure how that all works

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I am mostly happy with this run.  It was a much colder run, especially at the surface.  Never gets places from 95 NW above freezing.  Probably means more sleet then rain during the "mixy" period.  Unfortunately a slightly more tucked in track mean't it did blast a warm layer pretty far west at 850...it gets right to my doorstep at its furthest NW.  For big totalys into 95 we would want to see that surface track judge just a bit southeast...but the good news is if the euro and ggem are correct on the colder thermal structure of the storm we wouldn't need the track to adjust all the way to the GFS.  That's good because in the end I expect a 60/40 compromise track between the usually progressive GFS and the usually amped euro, biased toward the euro, to be reality.  That is going to cut it really close for getting big totals into 95.  But if we adjust the euro just a slight bit southeast on the surface track it gets it done.  

One thing that has me a little confused is why the 850's arent crashing more during the deform band. Usually we kill it up here with ratios in a deform band so I would think we be more like 12-1 instead of 15/20-1.

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