WVclimo Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Can anyone with access please post QPF ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, H2O said: That is still a hell of a gradient across Fx Co. 4”-12” Stafford is wild too, nothing to like 4-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Definitely more of the kind of move we needed. That's about all you can say at this time. On to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, 40westwx said: looking good for your area! If it plays out it will be the most snow I've ever seen in my life. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Having lived in this area my entire life of over 50 years, could be my biggest storm ever in December!!!! you had to see around 20 inches in 2009 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Having lived in this area my entire life of over 50 years, could be my biggest storm ever in December!!!! You must live in the 20” plus zone. Dec 2009 was about 2 ft at my house in Fairfax Co. I doubt this one will beat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: If it plays out it will be the most snow I've ever seen in my life. Where did you live before 2016? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The Euro is beautiful. We miss out on the ccb stuff out here. But it is just hours upon hours of snow. Great run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Does anyone know what the thermals looked like heading in to 2009? I know it broke way colder than it was supposed to.. but I am curious to know how it was forecasted leading up to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 My money is still on KING gfs. It's clear the Euro was moving towards the gfs solution. 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Amped > euro made a strong move toward the Canadian < Amped 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: @CAPE The 12z euro.. wow. I might be back in soon. You could practically see over a foot of snow on the ground from your backyard even with only 3-5 inches OTG if you look to your north. Edit: We're only in above freezing 850s for a few hours.. then we get crushed Who cares what the wonky surface maps look like. This looks interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I am really pulling for you guys on this! I hope it overperforms beyond all of your wildest dreams. Snow, snow, and more snow! 15 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Scraff said: We abscond? If somehow that 10:1 euro snowmap verifies, that sound you'll hear at 2am Thursday is me running naked up and down Route 108. 2 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: If somehow that 10:1 euro snowmap verifies, that sound you'll hear at 2am Thursday is me screaming running naked up and down Route 108. Fixed. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Who cares what the wonky surface maps look like. This looks interesting. Noticed this wonky stripe through the corridor on the run to run tab on weatherbell for the 850s. Take this out and it’s a cleaner regional improvement in upper level temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Does anyone know what the thermals looked like heading in to 2009? I know it broke way colder than it was supposed to.. but I am curious to know how it was forecasted leading up to the event. Yeah, I feel like almost every major coastal storm we have, temps are often much colder when the storm hits than modeled, but I could be wrong. That was a great run. Just the smallest southeast adjustments over the next few runs puts the immediate metro areas in the boom zone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Does Euro ever even flip to rain for DC metro on this run? Looks like snow, then some sleet/snow/rain mix, then snow. Tough to tell from these maps without soundings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Better than 0z in the game, off for a walk I'll take this and be happy, in fact for December a lot of us will be happy with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: My money is still on KING gfs. It's clear the Euro was moving towards the gfs solution. The last 4 runs of the euro have been extremely consistent... the fact that r/s line is so close to the major cities is causing the totals to vary so much in our backyards.. GFS has been consistent for the last 7 runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Negnao said: Noticed this wonky stripe through the corridor on the run to run tab on weatherbell for the 850s. Take this out and it’s a cleaner regional improvement in upper level temps. That's banding. Descending air on either wide of the deathband creates warming. Notice the very cold (comparatively) temperatures just east of it. @CAPE and @JakkelWx are turned on by that. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 You can see why the euro trended south of 00z if you look at the jet streak under the troff. It's stronger and further SE this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Negnao said: Noticed this wonky stripe through the corridor on the run to run tab on weatherbell for the 850s. Take this out and it’s a cleaner regional improvement in upper level temps. This is on a lot of guidance. Think it has to do with how the ULLs are being stacked. Looking like a less beefy 2016 here in Philly where we get some snow and then the deformation zone heads NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 15 minutes ago, H2O said: It certainly didn’t trend CMC Yeah, it's a marked improvment over 0z for sure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Does Euro ever even flip to rain for DC metro on this run? Looks like snow, then some sleet/snow/rain mix, then snow. Tough to tell from these maps without soundings. Probably not. Looks like 33-34 at the surface is as warm as gets. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If somehow that 10:1 euro snowmap verifies, that sound you'll hear at 2am Thursday is me running naked up and down Route 108. run around inside. thermals plus pressure drop = shrinkage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I am mostly happy with this run. It was a much colder run, especially at the surface. Never gets places from 95 NW above freezing. Probably means more sleet then rain during the "mixy" period. Unfortunately a slightly more tucked in track mean't it did blast a warm layer pretty far west at 850...it gets right to my doorstep at its furthest NW. For big totalys into 95 we would want to see that surface track judge just a bit southeast...but the good news is if the euro and ggem are correct on the colder thermal structure of the storm we wouldn't need the track to adjust all the way to the GFS. That's good because in the end I expect a 60/40 compromise track between the usually progressive GFS and the usually amped euro, biased toward the euro, to be reality. That is going to cut it really close for getting big totals into 95. But if we adjust the euro just a slight bit southeast on the surface track it gets it done. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yeah, I feel like almost every major coastal storm we have, temps are often much colder when the storm hits than modeled, but I could be wrong. That was a great run. Just the smallest southeast adjustments over the next few runs puts the immediate metro areas in the boom zone. I would be watching the strength of the low more than the track.. I mean the track is important and we can get screwed with a LP center over Annapolis... but I think if we get an early bomb off the coast of SC... that can act to draw in more cold air.. but I am not sure how that all works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: Who cares what the wonky surface maps look like. This looks interesting. That’s a banding signature. eta: ninjad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I am mostly happy with this run. It was a much colder run, especially at the surface. Never gets places from 95 NW above freezing. Probably means more sleet then rain during the "mixy" period. Unfortunately a slightly more tucked in track mean't it did blast a warm layer pretty far west at 850...it gets right to my doorstep at its furthest NW. For big totalys into 95 we would want to see that surface track judge just a bit southeast...but the good news is if the euro and ggem are correct on the colder thermal structure of the storm we wouldn't need the track to adjust all the way to the GFS. That's good because in the end I expect a 60/40 compromise track between the usually progressive GFS and the usually amped euro, biased toward the euro, to be reality. That is going to cut it really close for getting big totals into 95. But if we adjust the euro just a slight bit southeast on the surface track it gets it done. One thing that has me a little confused is why the 850's arent crashing more during the deform band. Usually we kill it up here with ratios in a deform band so I would think we be more like 12-1 instead of 15/20-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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