WesternFringe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12Z better for most in the forum than 6Z, no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 In 2017 GFS' had the snow sleet line 50 miles too far SE and it underdid the warm layer by about 4C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: All the crappy snow maps in the last few pages of the thread - maybe someone throw up the GFS life preserver snow map? Mobile and can't see it right now. WB 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: yes Ok, I was using WB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, WesternFringe said: 12Z better for most in the forum than 6Z, no? LOL that takes me from 3 to 10 inches. Not buying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I don’t hate the upslope snow showers continuing through Friday for Garrett County on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea the GFS saves I-95 and points west. I really hope this is the start of a last minute trend for the better. Is that something we do? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, lpaschall said: Agreed. Temps were forecasted to be 3-4 degrees higher in Westminster at this time. Holding at 33 with STRONG sun. It's a frigid 40 at DCA right now at 11am. We will blow past the forecast high of 42. Yes, there is a H up north. Just with a very unimpressive airmass here. Folks are free to live and die by each model wobble but we have seen this movie before. Sure, it will start frozen but one of those scenarios will a little white on the grass in the AM slowly disappears as you go inside the beltway to cartoppers and then inside DC itself a little slush on the windshields. Then a very quick changeover and that is that. The immediate DC metro is meh at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, catoctin wx said: Is that something we do? Almost never so I'm not expecting it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: WB We gotta be smart about these maps. We all know they aren’t to be taken verbatim but Baltimore city isn’t getting 8” and glen Burnie gets 3-4” when they have the same elevation. That rate of difference in snow totals will be elevation based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: LOL that takes me from 3 to 10 inches. Not buying. Just conveying what the model is showing, using positive snow depth change to avoid counting sleet, and it is showing an improvement for many (the most populous areas in this forum). In reality, you never had 3" before and you don't have 10" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, Amped said: In 2017 GFS' had the snow sleet line 50 miles too far SE and it underdid the warm layer by about 4C You're trying too hard....this was a clown post bro 1 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Snow maps still have me in the sad Ellinwood grey zone of nothingness so can't say GFS was great for ALL of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: We gotta be smart about these maps. We all know they aren’t to be taken verbatim but Baltimore city isn’t getting 8” and glen Burnie gets 3-4” when they have the same elevation. That rate of difference in snow totals will be elevation based. Also, I don't see the Inner Harbor with full UHI outperforming BWI in this one being so thermals dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Never thought I'd be hugging the GFS over the NAM with a storm 24hrs away 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Never thought I'd be hugging the GFS over the NAM with a storm 24hrs away At least you aren't hugging the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: At least you aren't hugging the ICON. Depends, is it worth hugging? I missed what it showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The valley doesn’t have mountains surrounding it high enough to trap cold at 850 Not yet, but there is still 24 hours to go. Time to pin hopes on plate tectonics or volcanology. Add that to the MA bingo board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 16 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Agreed, there's not a primary present but if you see what I just said to Joe and he confirmed is we want to see this thing close off in the ML's and have the winds not vector out of the SE pumping in the WAA for the entirely of the low's track to our latitude. I agree with you. I tend to look at the surface and neglect the upper levels. Get them to close off and I think the wrapped look returns and most of us win with a backside burst or snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Depends, is it worth hugging? I missed what it showed. It's better than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I think the cold air source will be less tepid and shallow than is popularly discussed. It began to establish itself late last night and is not the stale 48 hour stuff that often messes us up, tight nowIm 38/20 with a 30.28. That’s near perfection and other time in the past when things appeared more optimistic I never got into an ideal range like described currently its going to be a nowcast event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 From 12z we are still over 24 hours from blastoff. Don’t think that we can’t improve in that time period. It is most definitely possible. Minute changes can be huge when it concerns snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The GFS stays all snow west of the Blue Ridge from roughly Luray north and west. It is too close for comfort. But we hug it until the Euro folds like a cheap suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: From 12z we are still over 24 hours from blastoff. Don’t think that we can’t improve in that time period. It is most definitely possible. Minute changes can be huge when it concerns snowfall. Someone needs to tell the 12z CMC that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GEM is an ice bomb for the 81 corridor. Tracks the low over the mouth of the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: GEM is an ice bomb for the 81 corridor. The GEM is the only 12z model that got worse for us so far thankfully. We're gonna need the Euro to hold up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The GEM is awful. We all know the Euro is what we are all gonna hang on, as we should 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I don't know if I really view the GFS as a reversal of the trend. It shifted the low track NW. That is the trend...all our other problems come from the fact the low keeps trending west with every run. Within that the GFS improved on some meso features that helped us out. An earlier close of the mid level circulation and such a more tightly wound system. And that worked for us wrt snowfall. But that is a meso detail within the larger scale...and on the larger scale the trend was another shift west in the low track. It is fine to celebrate the good things about this GFS run but we shouldn't overlook the bad. If the trend in the track were to halt NOW and adjust east slightly we are still close enough (NW of 95) to salvage things if the details like early close of the mid levels and banding and fast WAA thump go our way. So its good to see some of that on the GFS. But we need the larger trend with the track of the system to stop or it wont make any difference. If this tracks up west of the bay no one in here is going to be happy no matter how the meso nowcast details shake out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The GEM is awful. We all know the Euro is what we are all gonna hang on, as we should I mean even the ICON improved at 12z which has been one of our worst models to this point on the storm but in reality was more accurate with the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 20 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: We gotta be smart about these maps. We all know they aren’t to be taken verbatim but Baltimore city isn’t getting 8” and glen Burnie gets 3-4” when they have the same elevation. That rate of difference in snow totals will be elevation based. Subtract big time in areas that show sleet and freezing rain. WB GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts