IronTy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I don't feel so depressed anymore, seems like most are getting a screwjob on this storm... And there are still a few model runs for things to get even worse before it starts. Might as well pile on with the annual rain totals for 2020 though, if there's any silver lining to be found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 45 minutes ago, BristowWx said: What do you think about ice? Even though the 3k shows it My thought is it takes a solid below 30F to have significant icing. 28F even. Don’t think there will be any significant icing anywhere. Airmass is way too marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Some folks will get upset that this busted, but it speaks to the state of forecasting honestly. The models aren't to be taken as what will happen, only an input into formulating a forecast. Even some mets I think have forgotten that. Models are a tool - not a prediction. There were some like @ers-wxman1 that sounded caution on this early and said the airmass wasn't conducive to a big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Don’t think there will be any significant icing anywhere. Airmass is way too marginal. There will be icing in my drink. JWB 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 RGEM has a nice WAA thump. Really nice by our updated standards for this storm. 2-5” for everyone including DC. Yes goes to sleet and rain, but adjust your standards people. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Don’t think there will be any significant icing anywhere. Airmass is way too marginal. Where do I sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I think the storm was already deep-sixed when somebody mentioned knickerbocker early in the model evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Not sure I think the NAM was a worse run. Could be just me but actually thought the 3k improved 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 We Suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: RGEM has a nice WAA thump. Really nice by our updated standards for this storm. 2-5” for everyone including DC. Yes goes to sleet and rain, but adjust your standards people. At this point everyone in here would take the RGEM and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not sure I think the NAM was a worse run. Could be just me but actually thought the 3k improved maybe its good for you but its horrible up here. i thought 00z was awful and it still gave me double digits. 12z doesnt even give me 6 on snowmaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 At this point I’d be thrilled with 12-18 hours of sleet vs mostly rain. But not sure that’s going to even happen now for my locale. LWX had downgraded my point and click forecast but probably still too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: At this point everyone in here would take the RGEM and run. I mean, I was thinking a dusting-2” could be a better forecast for MBY potentially. 3K NAM and RGEM keep hope alive that I could exceed last years total snow (3.5”) from this storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: maybe its good for you but its horrible up here. i thought 00z was awful and it still gave me double digits. 12z doesnt even give me 6 on snowmaps Looks better to me region wide than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Looks better to me region wide than 6z How can that map possibly give DC 9”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Looks better to me region wide than 6z that includes sleet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, jaydreb said: How can that map possibly give DC 9”? Lotta sleet. The 3K never torches us that badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 There are multiple problems here. First off, certain models always show too much snow like Kuchera and 3K. People should not even look at those. Next, there were always models that suggested this was not a great event for many but people decide to toss those out for no reason. You can't just toss something out because you do not like it lol. Also, we know the NW trend. This being locked in days ago was always bad, it could only trend worse. You do not want to have something locked in 5 days away, it will always change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GFS not all that bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, mappy said: that includes sleet though. exactly. no one should ever post a 10:1 map when the precip type images clearly show a ton of sleet. The NCEP models tally snow and sleet together and put out a liquid total; a 10:1 ratio applied to that has no chance to be even in the ballpark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I think the dismissals of the high last night are looking incorrect. DC built rapidly and steadily overnight and is continuing. 1028 here right now on a high that is forecasted to be 1032-1036 1000 miles to our north is an excellent showing down here at this time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Scraff said: GFS not all that bad... ... are always a precursor to bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The track sucks, but surface temperatures aren't terrible on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Lotta sleet. The 3K never torches us that badly. It is definitely interesting to see even when the low is going as far W as these models have shown, surface temps barely touch freezing or don't go above for a lot of the northern tier folks. The 3k wasn't a "worse" run per say. I'm thinking a lot of these models are showing mesolow features as the true SLP, whereas the h85 and h5 tracks give us a better idea of where it actually would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, mappy said: that includes sleet though. Inches are inches. At least TWSS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not sure I think the NAM was a worse run. Could be just me but actually thought the 3k improved Agreed...soundings were several ticks better for mby. 1-2 hours of sleet verbatim vs 3-4 hours of sleet at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GFS is slightly better. The more wrapped up look is slowly coming back. Do not give up folks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The GFS stopped the bleeding out this way. Lock it up right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GFS significantly better for most of our sub forum than 06z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, DCTeacherman said: GFS significantly better for most of our sub forum than 06z. Significantly? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts