Snowchaser Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, wxtrix said: i’m confused—are you in Snowshoe, WV? No. I’m in Cville rn. I may go up there this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, high risk said: You sure about that? Both the 12 and 3 km versions seems to have snow in your area by 2 or 3pm. (I'm commenting on the precip timing, as it does look like you will go sleet.) you're right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Ellinwood is going to have to revisit that map of his and include lots of folks in his lovely grey area. Welcome to the cub, everyone! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Kinda neat how some people allow their internal rationalizations of model runs to play out in real-time on the boards. It's pretty fascinating. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristia Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Predictions for central Frederick County @1000 ft elevation? Please remove if this isn’t the place to ask this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 As long as NYC gets screwed, I will take a soaking 33 and rain all day 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mbusada1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Tomorrow I will be at about 2500 feet in elevation 15 miles west of I 81 and Woodstock Virginia. Does anybody have any thoughts on whether or not I’ll see mixing out here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The dry slot is now a problem here because the track has shifted NW. It didn’t get dryer it just shifted the heavy qpf up into PA! That dryslot is because the best WAA and fgen have shifted northwest by then because the track shifted NW. It wouldn’t be snowing where that dryslot is anyways because there is a huge mid level warm layer and that’s why the dryslot. To simplify the WAA lift stopped because the cold has been scoured out and is no longer resisting and forcing the warmth to lift over it. Again there will be 20”+ totals with this storm. It’s plenty wet. Those totals just won’t be anywhere near us as the track keeps shifting north. Right, I know. These storms where we need monster rates to verify always seem to disappoint in that department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 RGEM tries to warm sector us, lol. West of the Bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, chris21 said: Dropped to 30 briefly here in mt pleasant rock creek park really does have an effect on its immediate surroundings. even where i live downtown (but close to the park) it is a couple degrees colder at night here than even a few blocks to the east. we got down to 32.4 here, DCA 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, pazzo83 said: rock creek park really does have an effect on its immediate surroundings. even where i live downtown (but close to the park) it is a couple degrees colder at night here than even a few blocks to the east. we got down to 32.4 here, DCA 33. Exactly what I was thinking. I’m about a block from the park... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 What an ugly, ugly track on the RGEM. Basically the track from hell for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: As long as NYC gets screwed, I will take a soaking 33 and rain all day nyc isn’t getting screwed... again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: What an ugly, ugly track on the RGEM. Basically the track from hell for this region. Don’t you owe Richard Lewis some royalties? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 this may just be me but there is still enough time for this to be 100% rain for most of us 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, chris21 said: Exactly what I was thinking. I’m about a block from the park... not to veer too off topic, but probably the most insane transition is central park in NYC - certain nights you would leave the park and within a half a block it was like someone turned on the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: What an ugly, ugly track on the RGEM. Basically the track from hell for this region. By game time, it’ll actually track over Winchester at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, leesburg 04 said: this may just be me but there is still enough time for this to be 100% rain for most of us It seems headed that way. Still 24 hours of runs to go. This storm has morphed into a real POS over the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It seems headed that way. Still 24 hours of runs to go. This storm has morphed into a real POS over the last 24 hours. I mean seriously...should anyone on the east coast be comfortable with this thing? Buffalo maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It seems headed that way. Still 24 hours of runs to go. This storm has morphed into a real POS over the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I don't feel so depressed anymore, seems like most are getting a screwjob on this storm... And there are still a few model runs for things to get even worse before it starts. Might as well pile on with the annual rain totals for 2020 though, if there's any silver lining to be found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 45 minutes ago, BristowWx said: What do you think about ice? Even though the 3k shows it My thought is it takes a solid below 30F to have significant icing. 28F even. Don’t think there will be any significant icing anywhere. Airmass is way too marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Some folks will get upset that this busted, but it speaks to the state of forecasting honestly. The models aren't to be taken as what will happen, only an input into formulating a forecast. Even some mets I think have forgotten that. Models are a tool - not a prediction. There were some like @ers-wxman1 that sounded caution on this early and said the airmass wasn't conducive to a big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Don’t think there will be any significant icing anywhere. Airmass is way too marginal. There will be icing in my drink. JWB 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 RGEM has a nice WAA thump. Really nice by our updated standards for this storm. 2-5” for everyone including DC. Yes goes to sleet and rain, but adjust your standards people. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Don’t think there will be any significant icing anywhere. Airmass is way too marginal. Where do I sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I think the storm was already deep-sixed when somebody mentioned knickerbocker early in the model evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Not sure I think the NAM was a worse run. Could be just me but actually thought the 3k improved 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 We Suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: RGEM has a nice WAA thump. Really nice by our updated standards for this storm. 2-5” for everyone including DC. Yes goes to sleet and rain, but adjust your standards people. At this point everyone in here would take the RGEM and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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