chris21 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: DC proper didn't even drop below freezing. Lately absent a true arctic outbreak we seem to struggle to get much below freezing at night even in the heart of winter. Dropped to 30 briefly here in mt pleasant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 So we take the ICON then? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mbusada1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I will be at about 2500 feet in elevation about 20 miles west of Woodstock Virginia and Route 81 tomorrow. Do you think I’ll see any mixing in this location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Bouncy House Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, wxtrix said: why would they issue a new forecast before the 12z models have run? especially as they tend to use a GFS/Euro blend as their base? The trend started with the GFS and as I recall the Euro last evening, but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 This where I think the all snow line will be. Eastern WV, snowshoe and points north is included in the line because of the snowpack from yesterday.* inside the red line will be the 12”+ zone imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 down below 25 here this morning in southern Carroll County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 50 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: If this NAM is right Emmitsburg is not far enough for me to go. May just cancel and stay home, chasing to central PA not an option technically during PA's covid restrictions. I'd wait until the 12z GFS and Euro run through before making a cancellation. Or maybe even 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, mappy said: NAM is a disaster, again. Precip doesn't even make it up here until 7pm, and I flip to sleet by 10pm. You sure about that? Both the 12 and 3 km versions seems to have snow in your area by 2 or 3pm. (I'm commenting on the precip timing, as it does look like you will go sleet.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Bouncy House Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, wxtrix said: so what? why would a NWS office made a change based on a fraction of the info it needs? Sorry for asking a question, seems like you're having a moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 22 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I said a while ago a lack of precip could be an issue even for those with good temps and was told the models all showed “plenty of liquid” and “this thing is juiced.” LOL As predicted, those with decent temps will waste precious time with light rates and spitting snow. That dry slot is massive. The dry slot is now a problem here because the track has shifted NW. It didn’t get dryer it just shifted the heavy qpf up into PA! That dryslot is because the best WAA and fgen have shifted northwest by then because the track shifted NW. It wouldn’t be snowing where that dryslot is anyways because there is a huge mid level warm layer and that’s why the dryslot. To simplify the WAA lift stopped because the cold has been scoured out and is no longer resisting and forcing the warmth to lift over it. Again there will be 20”+ totals with this storm. It’s plenty wet. Those totals just won’t be anywhere near us as the track keeps shifting north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, wxtrix said: i’m confused—are you in Snowshoe, WV? No. I’m in Cville rn. I may go up there this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, high risk said: You sure about that? Both the 12 and 3 km versions seems to have snow in your area by 2 or 3pm. (I'm commenting on the precip timing, as it does look like you will go sleet.) you're right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Ellinwood is going to have to revisit that map of his and include lots of folks in his lovely grey area. Welcome to the cub, everyone! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Kinda neat how some people allow their internal rationalizations of model runs to play out in real-time on the boards. It's pretty fascinating. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristia Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Predictions for central Frederick County @1000 ft elevation? Please remove if this isn’t the place to ask this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 As long as NYC gets screwed, I will take a soaking 33 and rain all day 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mbusada1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Tomorrow I will be at about 2500 feet in elevation 15 miles west of I 81 and Woodstock Virginia. Does anybody have any thoughts on whether or not I’ll see mixing out here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The dry slot is now a problem here because the track has shifted NW. It didn’t get dryer it just shifted the heavy qpf up into PA! That dryslot is because the best WAA and fgen have shifted northwest by then because the track shifted NW. It wouldn’t be snowing where that dryslot is anyways because there is a huge mid level warm layer and that’s why the dryslot. To simplify the WAA lift stopped because the cold has been scoured out and is no longer resisting and forcing the warmth to lift over it. Again there will be 20”+ totals with this storm. It’s plenty wet. Those totals just won’t be anywhere near us as the track keeps shifting north. Right, I know. These storms where we need monster rates to verify always seem to disappoint in that department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 RGEM tries to warm sector us, lol. West of the Bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, chris21 said: Dropped to 30 briefly here in mt pleasant rock creek park really does have an effect on its immediate surroundings. even where i live downtown (but close to the park) it is a couple degrees colder at night here than even a few blocks to the east. we got down to 32.4 here, DCA 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, pazzo83 said: rock creek park really does have an effect on its immediate surroundings. even where i live downtown (but close to the park) it is a couple degrees colder at night here than even a few blocks to the east. we got down to 32.4 here, DCA 33. Exactly what I was thinking. I’m about a block from the park... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 What an ugly, ugly track on the RGEM. Basically the track from hell for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: As long as NYC gets screwed, I will take a soaking 33 and rain all day nyc isn’t getting screwed... again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: What an ugly, ugly track on the RGEM. Basically the track from hell for this region. Don’t you owe Richard Lewis some royalties? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 this may just be me but there is still enough time for this to be 100% rain for most of us 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, chris21 said: Exactly what I was thinking. I’m about a block from the park... not to veer too off topic, but probably the most insane transition is central park in NYC - certain nights you would leave the park and within a half a block it was like someone turned on the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: What an ugly, ugly track on the RGEM. Basically the track from hell for this region. By game time, it’ll actually track over Winchester at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, leesburg 04 said: this may just be me but there is still enough time for this to be 100% rain for most of us It seems headed that way. Still 24 hours of runs to go. This storm has morphed into a real POS over the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It seems headed that way. Still 24 hours of runs to go. This storm has morphed into a real POS over the last 24 hours. I mean seriously...should anyone on the east coast be comfortable with this thing? Buffalo maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It seems headed that way. Still 24 hours of runs to go. This storm has morphed into a real POS over the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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