Paleocene Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Welp. Hope I see a bunch of sleet in Silver Spring before it changes to rain tomorrow afternoon. Good luck to the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, leesburg 04 said: This won't be a freezing rain event, those don't really happen anymore. It's either snow or thick rain Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: With a relatively marginal airmass - any models suggesting widespread or heavy accumulations of freezing rain are probably wrong. Sleet - yes, freezing rain I wouldn't be too worried about. Right. Those maps don't account for actual ability to build on surfaces. They just look for rain falling with a sfc temperature at or below 32. You're spot on that without it being very cold today/tonight (i.e. mid to upper 20s), rain falling at 31 or 32 isn't likely to be a major deal. I do, however, think that parts of this area will get a big 'ole sleet bomb out of this. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3k NAM keeps MBY at or below freezing for the duration. Based on soundings, actually quite a bit of sleet and not as much rain or “freezing rain”. Freezing rain ain’t happening at temps of 30-32. Maybe a little glaze on railings and tree limbs. I get the NAM is pretty disastrous for the N/W crew, but I’m in salvage mode so I’ll take what I can get. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 @high risk yup RE: sleet. 2” of snow, 1” of sleet, then another dusting-1” of snow sounds great at this point. Every weenie for themselves grabbing the gold chandeliers off the titanic. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 It was 39 down here in Tampa last week. Sucks y’all can’t manage to combine precip and temps for a proper winter storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, high risk said: Right. Those maps don't account for actual ability to build on surfaces. They just look for rain falling with a sfc temperature at or below 32. You're spot on that without it being very cold today/tonight (i.e. mid to upper 20s), rain falling at 31 or 32 isn't likely to be a major deal. I do, however, think that parts of this area will get a big 'ole sleet bomb out of this. And add into the equation that it could even be pretty steady rain as well...always was told that if you want heavy freezing rain accumulation you're looking for lighter rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: 3k NAM keeps MBY at or below freezing for the duration. Based on soundings, actually quite a bit of sleet and not as much rain or “freezing rain”. Freezing rain ain’t happening at temps of 30-32. Maybe a little glaze on railings and tree limbs. I get the NAM is pretty disastrous for the N/W crew, but I’m in salvage mode so I’ll take what I can get. Although 850s were screaming from the east, as you said 925/surface was better than expected which if you’re looking to avoid just plain rain, thats a better than expected run. And agree on the ice threat...I just don’t see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Although 850s were screaming from the east, as you said 925/surface was better than expected which if you’re looking to avoid just plain rain, thats a better than expected run. And agree on the ice threat...I just don’t see it. Does say ice accumulation up to one tenth of an inch in the newest zone forecasts as of 940am from LWX... so i dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I’m in the same boat trying to avoid heavy rain and 37°. surface even close in hovers between 32-34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, yoda said: Does say ice accumulation up to one tenth of an inch in the newest zone forecasts as of 940am from LWX... so i dunno I should clarify and say by ice threat, I’m talking a serious ice storm that some models spit out in their maps...glazing on a grill or metal railing, sure. But the mythical ice storm, no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Welp. Hope I see a bunch of sleet in Silver Spring before it changes to rain tomorrow afternoon. Good luck to the northern tier. What map are you posting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I should clarify and say by ice threat, I’m talking a serious ice storm that some models spit out in their maps...glazing on a grill or metal railing, sure. But the mythical ice storm, no. It is a unicorn. I have only ever seen one true ZR ice storm. And that was in Atlanta believe it or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NAM is a disaster, again. Precip doesn't even make it up here until 7pm, and I flip to sleet by 10pm. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 we need tomorrow's air mass and yesterday's system (which would have been a classic warning level event here). the latest nam has the upper level energy moving too far north. if i was in the higher elevations near the mason dixon line i'd feel real good about this storm. around here, i'm just hoping we get a couple hours of snow to start (bonus points for daytime snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Welp. Hope I see a bunch of sleet in Silver Spring before it changes to rain tomorrow afternoon. Good luck to the northern tier. Thats the wrong map.. the other one shows more snow. you need to show that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Welp. Hope I see a bunch of sleet in Silver Spring before it changes to rain tomorrow afternoon. Good luck to the northern tier. Not much love where people actually live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, paweather said: What map are you posting? I used the accumulated positive snow depth change. Your map includes sleet -- as snow. Good luck to Palmyra! My grandparents live there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Bouncy House Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Considering the trends in the models showing additional mixing issues, why is Sterling sticking with their 12-18 for such a broad area? Are they thinking a more southern track will occur? It looks like sleet will be working it's way all the way to I-81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 15 minutes ago, PhineasC said: One factor working for this event is it is actually decently cold today. No spike to the 60s right before the storm at least. DC proper didn't even drop below freezing. Lately absent a true arctic outbreak we seem to struggle to get much below freezing at night even in the heart of winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: DC proper didn't even drop below freezing. Lately absent a true arctic outbreak we seem to struggle to get much below freezing at night even in the heart of winter. Dropped to 30 briefly here in mt pleasant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 So we take the ICON then? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mbusada1 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I will be at about 2500 feet in elevation about 20 miles west of Woodstock Virginia and Route 81 tomorrow. Do you think I’ll see any mixing in this location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Bouncy House Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, wxtrix said: why would they issue a new forecast before the 12z models have run? especially as they tend to use a GFS/Euro blend as their base? The trend started with the GFS and as I recall the Euro last evening, but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 This where I think the all snow line will be. Eastern WV, snowshoe and points north is included in the line because of the snowpack from yesterday.* inside the red line will be the 12”+ zone imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 down below 25 here this morning in southern Carroll County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 50 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: If this NAM is right Emmitsburg is not far enough for me to go. May just cancel and stay home, chasing to central PA not an option technically during PA's covid restrictions. I'd wait until the 12z GFS and Euro run through before making a cancellation. Or maybe even 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, mappy said: NAM is a disaster, again. Precip doesn't even make it up here until 7pm, and I flip to sleet by 10pm. You sure about that? Both the 12 and 3 km versions seems to have snow in your area by 2 or 3pm. (I'm commenting on the precip timing, as it does look like you will go sleet.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Bouncy House Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, wxtrix said: so what? why would a NWS office made a change based on a fraction of the info it needs? Sorry for asking a question, seems like you're having a moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 22 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I said a while ago a lack of precip could be an issue even for those with good temps and was told the models all showed “plenty of liquid” and “this thing is juiced.” LOL As predicted, those with decent temps will waste precious time with light rates and spitting snow. That dry slot is massive. The dry slot is now a problem here because the track has shifted NW. It didn’t get dryer it just shifted the heavy qpf up into PA! That dryslot is because the best WAA and fgen have shifted northwest by then because the track shifted NW. It wouldn’t be snowing where that dryslot is anyways because there is a huge mid level warm layer and that’s why the dryslot. To simplify the WAA lift stopped because the cold has been scoured out and is no longer resisting and forcing the warmth to lift over it. Again there will be 20”+ totals with this storm. It’s plenty wet. Those totals just won’t be anywhere near us as the track keeps shifting north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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