PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The 12k is pretty ugly. Is the I-81 corridor still getting their HECS? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The NAM is concerning for sure. Even out here we are on the edge of disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: The 12k is pretty ugly. Is the I-81 corridor still getting their HECS? LOL Are you gonna see a flake? LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: This is a cold rain 'near miss' and/or sleet fest for most here. Fun while it lasted ... it follows a similar pattern, we should be used to it by now. i wouldnt give up yet. Here is the NAM by 21z before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The 12k is pretty ugly. Is the I-81 corridor still getting their HECS? LOL At least down this way back to back runs of some pretty nasty ice accretion. .60” or higher. Even half of that would not be good down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: Are you gonna see a flake? LOL At this rate maybe just a few to start and then sleet and dryslot/drizzle. The models are really showing a dryslot here with the last few runs. This storm sure fell apart. NAM drives precip up to my place in Randolph now, very different from prior good runs here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: At this rate maybe just a few to start and then sleet and dryslot/drizzle. The models are really showing a dryslot here with the last few runs. This storm sure fell apart. NAM drives precip up to my place in Randolph now, very different from prior good runs here. I wouldn't mind thump --> mix --> rain --> dryslot. It's better than hours and hours of heavy rain at 35 degrees. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The best snows are going to be in Montreal in a few more runs 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 what are the HRRR's biases? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 We always seem to get more dryslotting than projections. Would not be surprised to see that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: I wouldn't mind thump --> mix --> rain --> dryslot. It's better than hours and hours of heavy rain at 35 degrees. Yeah, the NAM unfortunately shows more mixing out toward I-81, but it seems to be depicting more sleet than rain in DC with the temp not getting much above 32-33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I agree. Usually I use the orange Rain-X stuff and it's great. This is stuff the dealer put in. It's crap. Stealership strikes again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The 3km is quite the disaster all the way up to New York - not a single flake in DC, nobody east of 81 gets more than 5 inches, Philly gets 3 and NYC like 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3k NAM doesn't change anyone west of I-95 over to rain it seems, but it has some horrendous amounts of freezing rain and ice compared to last run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, chris21 said: Yeah, the NAM unfortunately shows more mixing out toward I-81, but it seems to be depicting more sleet than rain in DC with the temp not getting much above 32-33. I'm actually kind of excited for this storm. Give me a few hours of steady/heavy snow during the day tomorrow then whatever happens is gravy. Dry slot would be ideal so maybe the ground is still white when it gets cold after the storm. This is a nice way to pad stats if we can do 1-3 or 2-4 on the WAA. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, TL97 said: The 3km is quite the disaster all the way up to New York - not a single flake in DC, nobody east of 81 gets more than 5 inches, Philly gets 3 and NYC like 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, A777 said: what are the HRRR's biases? I'm hoping big dry slots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I'm trying to remain optimistic, but the writing appears to be on the wall here for just about everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I’m starting to think places above 3,000 feet near Snowshoe, WV could even see a mix at some point. Still expecting 12”+ in and around Snowshoe though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Man, glad DC folks were out of the game on like Sunday. I still think I-81 works out the best but not even sure about all of those MECS type amounts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I said a while ago a lack of precip could be an issue even for those with good temps and was told the models all showed “plenty of liquid” and “this thing is juiced.” LOL As predicted, those with decent temps will waste precious time with light rates and spitting snow. That dry slot is massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 With a relatively marginal airmass - any models suggesting widespread or heavy accumulations of freezing rain are probably wrong. Sleet - yes, freezing rain I wouldn't be too worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Man, glad DC folks were out of the game on like Sunday. I still think I-81 works out the best but not even sure about all of those MECS type amounts. What do you think about ice? Even though the 3k shows it My thought is it takes a solid below 30F to have significant icing. 28F even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 One factor working for this event is it is actually decently cold today. No spike to the 60s right before the storm at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: I’m starting to think places above 3,000 feet near Snowshoe, WV could even see a mix at some point. Still expecting 12”+ in and around Snowshoe though. You’ll mix down there for a bit I think. As of now I’m all snow but wouldn’t be surprised to see some sleet mixing in depending on trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: What do you think about ice? Even though the 3k shows it My thought is it takes a solid below 30F to have significant icing. 28F even. This won't be a freezing rain event, those don't really happen anymore. It's either snow or thick rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 LOL when snowshoe and wisp are talking about mixing the rest of us are in trouble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Winter storm warnings posted this morm stated 12-18 inches for Frederick and I-81 corridor. Imagine that will need to be reduced by a good 50%! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 If this fails I will never feel the same about the Euro again. It had me at 20 inches last night. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Also, in earthen West Virginia most places received 3”-8 inches of snow yesterday. And the snow will still be on the ground tomorrow. I don’t think the models are counting in the snowpack which could equal to a 1-3 degree drop in the temperature from the model runs. something to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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