PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I said a while ago a lack of precip could be an issue even for those with good temps and was told the models all showed “plenty of liquid” and “this thing is juiced.” LOL As predicted, those with decent temps will waste precious time with light rates and spitting snow. That dry slot is massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 With a relatively marginal airmass - any models suggesting widespread or heavy accumulations of freezing rain are probably wrong. Sleet - yes, freezing rain I wouldn't be too worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Man, glad DC folks were out of the game on like Sunday. I still think I-81 works out the best but not even sure about all of those MECS type amounts. What do you think about ice? Even though the 3k shows it My thought is it takes a solid below 30F to have significant icing. 28F even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 One factor working for this event is it is actually decently cold today. No spike to the 60s right before the storm at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: I’m starting to think places above 3,000 feet near Snowshoe, WV could even see a mix at some point. Still expecting 12”+ in and around Snowshoe though. You’ll mix down there for a bit I think. As of now I’m all snow but wouldn’t be surprised to see some sleet mixing in depending on trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: What do you think about ice? Even though the 3k shows it My thought is it takes a solid below 30F to have significant icing. 28F even. This won't be a freezing rain event, those don't really happen anymore. It's either snow or thick rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 LOL when snowshoe and wisp are talking about mixing the rest of us are in trouble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Winter storm warnings posted this morm stated 12-18 inches for Frederick and I-81 corridor. Imagine that will need to be reduced by a good 50%! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 If this fails I will never feel the same about the Euro again. It had me at 20 inches last night. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Also, in earthen West Virginia most places received 3”-8 inches of snow yesterday. And the snow will still be on the ground tomorrow. I don’t think the models are counting in the snowpack which could equal to a 1-3 degree drop in the temperature from the model runs. something to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Welp. Hope I see a bunch of sleet in Silver Spring before it changes to rain tomorrow afternoon. Good luck to the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, leesburg 04 said: This won't be a freezing rain event, those don't really happen anymore. It's either snow or thick rain Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: With a relatively marginal airmass - any models suggesting widespread or heavy accumulations of freezing rain are probably wrong. Sleet - yes, freezing rain I wouldn't be too worried about. Right. Those maps don't account for actual ability to build on surfaces. They just look for rain falling with a sfc temperature at or below 32. You're spot on that without it being very cold today/tonight (i.e. mid to upper 20s), rain falling at 31 or 32 isn't likely to be a major deal. I do, however, think that parts of this area will get a big 'ole sleet bomb out of this. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3k NAM keeps MBY at or below freezing for the duration. Based on soundings, actually quite a bit of sleet and not as much rain or “freezing rain”. Freezing rain ain’t happening at temps of 30-32. Maybe a little glaze on railings and tree limbs. I get the NAM is pretty disastrous for the N/W crew, but I’m in salvage mode so I’ll take what I can get. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 @high risk yup RE: sleet. 2” of snow, 1” of sleet, then another dusting-1” of snow sounds great at this point. Every weenie for themselves grabbing the gold chandeliers off the titanic. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 It was 39 down here in Tampa last week. Sucks y’all can’t manage to combine precip and temps for a proper winter storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, high risk said: Right. Those maps don't account for actual ability to build on surfaces. They just look for rain falling with a sfc temperature at or below 32. You're spot on that without it being very cold today/tonight (i.e. mid to upper 20s), rain falling at 31 or 32 isn't likely to be a major deal. I do, however, think that parts of this area will get a big 'ole sleet bomb out of this. And add into the equation that it could even be pretty steady rain as well...always was told that if you want heavy freezing rain accumulation you're looking for lighter rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: 3k NAM keeps MBY at or below freezing for the duration. Based on soundings, actually quite a bit of sleet and not as much rain or “freezing rain”. Freezing rain ain’t happening at temps of 30-32. Maybe a little glaze on railings and tree limbs. I get the NAM is pretty disastrous for the N/W crew, but I’m in salvage mode so I’ll take what I can get. Although 850s were screaming from the east, as you said 925/surface was better than expected which if you’re looking to avoid just plain rain, thats a better than expected run. And agree on the ice threat...I just don’t see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Although 850s were screaming from the east, as you said 925/surface was better than expected which if you’re looking to avoid just plain rain, thats a better than expected run. And agree on the ice threat...I just don’t see it. Does say ice accumulation up to one tenth of an inch in the newest zone forecasts as of 940am from LWX... so i dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I’m in the same boat trying to avoid heavy rain and 37°. surface even close in hovers between 32-34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, yoda said: Does say ice accumulation up to one tenth of an inch in the newest zone forecasts as of 940am from LWX... so i dunno I should clarify and say by ice threat, I’m talking a serious ice storm that some models spit out in their maps...glazing on a grill or metal railing, sure. But the mythical ice storm, no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Welp. Hope I see a bunch of sleet in Silver Spring before it changes to rain tomorrow afternoon. Good luck to the northern tier. What map are you posting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I should clarify and say by ice threat, I’m talking a serious ice storm that some models spit out in their maps...glazing on a grill or metal railing, sure. But the mythical ice storm, no. It is a unicorn. I have only ever seen one true ZR ice storm. And that was in Atlanta believe it or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 NAM is a disaster, again. Precip doesn't even make it up here until 7pm, and I flip to sleet by 10pm. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 we need tomorrow's air mass and yesterday's system (which would have been a classic warning level event here). the latest nam has the upper level energy moving too far north. if i was in the higher elevations near the mason dixon line i'd feel real good about this storm. around here, i'm just hoping we get a couple hours of snow to start (bonus points for daytime snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Welp. Hope I see a bunch of sleet in Silver Spring before it changes to rain tomorrow afternoon. Good luck to the northern tier. Thats the wrong map.. the other one shows more snow. you need to show that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Welp. Hope I see a bunch of sleet in Silver Spring before it changes to rain tomorrow afternoon. Good luck to the northern tier. Not much love where people actually live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, paweather said: What map are you posting? I used the accumulated positive snow depth change. Your map includes sleet -- as snow. Good luck to Palmyra! My grandparents live there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Bouncy House Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Considering the trends in the models showing additional mixing issues, why is Sterling sticking with their 12-18 for such a broad area? Are they thinking a more southern track will occur? It looks like sleet will be working it's way all the way to I-81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 15 minutes ago, PhineasC said: One factor working for this event is it is actually decently cold today. No spike to the 60s right before the storm at least. DC proper didn't even drop below freezing. Lately absent a true arctic outbreak we seem to struggle to get much below freezing at night even in the heart of winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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