WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Wonder just how bad this can get? The NAM has the low in Raleigh at 30 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Seems quite colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 11 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Well...when I walked out to my car a little while ago (Arundel Mills area). All my windows were frozen over, a bottle of water inside had frozen and the washer fluid froze on contact. I'm just going to take the weenie approach and assume that I have a local cold dome that will make me invincible to the changeover. Might head back to my parent's place in Colesville to watch this one. Probably similar totals overall... If your windshield washer fluid froze at 30 degrees (or even 0 degrees, for that matter), it's not windshield washer fluid. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, Kleimax said: The NWS has 12-18 inches for me in Owings mills in the WSW... not seeing how that’s possible. Even the updated snowfall map of 8-12 doesn’t seem likely. What about news channel 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 In all seriousness though if there ever was a storm for novice chasers, this is it. If this crazy gradient verifies, those of us in the coastal plain who have never chased have a rare opportunity to chase from cold rain to a foot of snow and be back before our boss notices we left. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Yeoman said: If your windshield washer fluid froze at 30 degrees (or even 0 degrees, for that matter), it's not windshield washer fluid. I agree. Usually I use the orange Rain-X stuff and it's great. This is stuff the dealer put in. It's crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 If this NAM is right Emmitsburg is not far enough for me to go. May just cancel and stay home, chasing to central PA not an option technically during PA's covid restrictions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 A bottle of rain-x a day keeps the changeover away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 This is a cold rain 'near miss' and/or sleet fest for most here. Fun while it lasted ... it follows a similar pattern, we should be used to it by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: In all seriousness though if there ever was a storm for novice chasers, this is it. If this crazy gradient verifies, those of us in the coastal plain who have never chased have a rare opportunity to chase from cold rain to a foot of snow and be back before our boss notices we left. Yeah I'd be tempted to do my 33-mile mini chase to Greenbrier Park off I-70 but man even there is looking dodgy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The 12k is pretty ugly. Is the I-81 corridor still getting their HECS? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The NAM is concerning for sure. Even out here we are on the edge of disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: The 12k is pretty ugly. Is the I-81 corridor still getting their HECS? LOL Are you gonna see a flake? LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: This is a cold rain 'near miss' and/or sleet fest for most here. Fun while it lasted ... it follows a similar pattern, we should be used to it by now. i wouldnt give up yet. Here is the NAM by 21z before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The 12k is pretty ugly. Is the I-81 corridor still getting their HECS? LOL At least down this way back to back runs of some pretty nasty ice accretion. .60” or higher. Even half of that would not be good down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: Are you gonna see a flake? LOL At this rate maybe just a few to start and then sleet and dryslot/drizzle. The models are really showing a dryslot here with the last few runs. This storm sure fell apart. NAM drives precip up to my place in Randolph now, very different from prior good runs here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: At this rate maybe just a few to start and then sleet and dryslot/drizzle. The models are really showing a dryslot here with the last few runs. This storm sure fell apart. NAM drives precip up to my place in Randolph now, very different from prior good runs here. I wouldn't mind thump --> mix --> rain --> dryslot. It's better than hours and hours of heavy rain at 35 degrees. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The best snows are going to be in Montreal in a few more runs 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 what are the HRRR's biases? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 We always seem to get more dryslotting than projections. Would not be surprised to see that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: I wouldn't mind thump --> mix --> rain --> dryslot. It's better than hours and hours of heavy rain at 35 degrees. Yeah, the NAM unfortunately shows more mixing out toward I-81, but it seems to be depicting more sleet than rain in DC with the temp not getting much above 32-33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I agree. Usually I use the orange Rain-X stuff and it's great. This is stuff the dealer put in. It's crap. Stealership strikes again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The 3km is quite the disaster all the way up to New York - not a single flake in DC, nobody east of 81 gets more than 5 inches, Philly gets 3 and NYC like 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3k NAM doesn't change anyone west of I-95 over to rain it seems, but it has some horrendous amounts of freezing rain and ice compared to last run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, chris21 said: Yeah, the NAM unfortunately shows more mixing out toward I-81, but it seems to be depicting more sleet than rain in DC with the temp not getting much above 32-33. I'm actually kind of excited for this storm. Give me a few hours of steady/heavy snow during the day tomorrow then whatever happens is gravy. Dry slot would be ideal so maybe the ground is still white when it gets cold after the storm. This is a nice way to pad stats if we can do 1-3 or 2-4 on the WAA. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, TL97 said: The 3km is quite the disaster all the way up to New York - not a single flake in DC, nobody east of 81 gets more than 5 inches, Philly gets 3 and NYC like 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, A777 said: what are the HRRR's biases? I'm hoping big dry slots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I'm trying to remain optimistic, but the writing appears to be on the wall here for just about everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I’m starting to think places above 3,000 feet near Snowshoe, WV could even see a mix at some point. Still expecting 12”+ in and around Snowshoe though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Man, glad DC folks were out of the game on like Sunday. I still think I-81 works out the best but not even sure about all of those MECS type amounts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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