December 16/17 Winter Event

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

2 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Just observing what is going on right now in my simpleton mind is reason enough to conclude this is a whole lot of nothing here.  There is no Arctic airmass. We had clear skies and dews around 20, and DCA barely sniffed freezing last night- busted on the forecast low of 29. High today supposed to be 42, probably hit 45 give or take a degree.  The point is there might be a H in Canada, but it not a "Canadian" high.  Everyone talks about CAD being under modeled and slow to retreat. Sure- when it is COLD air damning, not COOl air damning. We basically are entering the storm with a seasonal to perhaps slightly below normal airmass and a ton of air from very mild waters ready to flood in.  So sure, with low dews we may wet bulb at the start so we see flakes flying at the outset, but this will likely be a very quick changeover and a lot of wet roads. Anything on the backside will be luck. Just observations from nearly half a century in the immediate metro.

Agreed.

[mappy]

8 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

All of the above. I'm a split between exhausted and acceptance. There comes a point where you know the game is over and you stop fouling and just let the other team run out the clock. I'll check out 12z runs, but it's becoming more clear that not only does it get warm and any front-end snow washes away, but there isn't going to be some amazing deform show on the back end, either. Early in the winter for sure, but so frustrating to see a potential big storm just pulled out from under us, especially when you would have thought there would be some adjustments back to the east.

it could still adjust east. we are 24hrs or so from start for our far southern people. but having realistic expectations is good, its going to be warm for the usual places, and cold for the usual places. a mix in between. i know i am going to sleet. probably a lot. happens every coastal. but snow is snow so im happy with whatever i get.

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Just observing what is going on right now in my simpleton mind is reason enough to conclude this is a whole lot of nothing here.  There is no Arctic airmass. We had clear skies and dews around 20, and DCA barely sniffed freezing last night- busted on the forecast low of 29. High today supposed to be 42, probably hit 45 give or take a degree.  The point is there might be a H in Canada, but it not a "Canadian" high.  Everyone talks about CAD being under modeled and slow to retreat. Sure- when it is COLD air damning, not COOl air damning. We basically are entering the storm with a seasonal to perhaps slightly below normal airmass and a ton of air from very mild waters ready to flood in.  So sure, with low dews we may wet bulb at the start so we see flakes flying at the outset, but this will likely be a very quick changeover and a lot of wet roads. Anything on the backside will be luck. Just observations from nearly half a century in the immediate metro.

I think that’s a good point and one I tried to hint at several days ago. This is not a true cad situation. But I also think this a very unusual low track as well. Eh, what do I know?

[yoda]

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

6z Euro? C’mon people. 

[Wonderdog]

21 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I guess it could.  it was only about 3 days ago we were in the pink.  I thought when it adjusts in the next couple days it will still be a nice event. The sharp cutoff at the eastern end of the county and climo should have been my warning flags.  there will be others just looking at the upcoming high latitude blocking being modeled.  better than 2019 that's for sure. 

Warrenton is in warning area. 11 miles from my abode. But that could make all the difference. More elevation too.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, yoda said:

I’ll say this for the euro. It has been consistent with its orientation. Varying the amounts but not the look.

Thanks Yoda

[dailylurker]

The history books don't lie. Climo never liked this storm in my area. Just another 2" flooding rain here.

[nj2va]

6z Euro tracks the low over Williamsburg - Lower Ches Bay - Up the Bay to near CAPE (too bad it’s not a Cat 4 everyone here craves) - then heads NE from there.  Furthest west (on the 3 hour panels), the 850 line gets is Leesburg.  

[frd]

1 minute ago, ovechkin said:

Just observing what is going on right now in my simpleton mind is reason enough to conclude this is a whole lot of nothing here.  There is no Arctic airmass. We had clear skies and dews around 20, and DCA barely sniffed freezing last night- busted on the forecast low of 29. High today supposed to be 42, probably hit 45 give or take a degree.  The point is there might be a H in Canada, but it not a "Canadian" high.  Everyone talks about CAD being under modeled and slow to retreat. Sure- when it is COLD air damning, not COOl air damning. We basically are entering the storm with a seasonal to perhaps slightly below normal airmass and a ton of air from very mild waters ready to flood in.  So sure, with low dews we may wet bulb at the start so we see flakes flying at the outset, but this will likely be a very quick changeover and a lot of wet roads. Anything on the backside will be luck. Just observations from nearly half a century in the immediate metro.

 

Mentioned the other day the tendency for most storms to hug the coast and be coastal huggers , it has been a while we have had a true bench mark storm. 

As for CAD look at these run over run temp changes in my area, Southern NJ and Delaware in general. A function of NW Atlantic SSTs possibly and as you mentioned nothing really special in terms of CAD although the source region of the CAD is the real issue.  And of course the warmer Atlantic SSTs for the Eastern areas combined with the storm track. Maybe this shifts as we head into early January. 

 

 

 

 

[Chris78]

Just now, nj2va said:

6z Euro tracks the low over Williamsburg - Lower Ches Bay - Up the Bay to near CAPE (too bad it’s not a Cat 4 everyone here craves) - then heads NE from there.  Furthest west (on the 3 hour panels), the 850 line gets is Leesburg.  

Pretty good track for deep creek

[blizzardmeiser]

4 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

Agreed.

 

6 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Just observing what is going on right now in my simpleton mind is reason enough to conclude this is a whole lot of nothing here.  There is no Arctic airmass. We had clear skies and dews around 20, and DCA barely sniffed freezing last night- busted on the forecast low of 29. High today supposed to be 42, probably hit 45 give or take a degree.  The point is there might be a H in Canada, but it not a "Canadian" high.  Everyone talks about CAD being under modeled and slow to retreat. Sure- when it is COLD air damning, not COOl air damning. We basically are entering the storm with a seasonal to perhaps slightly below normal airmass and a ton of air from very mild waters ready to flood in.  So sure, with low dews we may wet bulb at the start so we see flakes flying at the outset, but this will likely be a very quick changeover and a lot of wet roads. Anything on the backside will be luck. Just observations from nearly half a century in the immediate metro.

Spot on!

[midatlanticweather]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

Saw this on Twitter. Stupid dual center thing is killing people's hopes... even going north! 

 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Outside the beltways the dews start between 12-16 F tomorrow morning.  Not a bad way to start .

Maybe we get lucky and snow holds on a bit later then expected

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Pretty good track for deep creek

Yeah, should be good skiing conditions on Thursday/Friday with some fresh powder, I’m excited.  Though I’d rather a solution that had the low just offshore to get more of the forum in on the action even if brought down totals here.  It feels like we’ve been tracking this for 3 weeks....

 

[Quasievil]

Devastating rain/snow line cutoff. Devastating. Tough start to the winter. Congrats to those about to get a shovel worthy snow.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Well things looked good until we started seeing SLP and mid level tracks over the Bay. That won’t cut it in mid December unless you have a true Arctic airmass. 

Yeah. This is three storms already this month that if they happen in January are likely all snow producers. Let’s just keep the low train moving.

[dallen7908]

Euro 6z:

 

Verbatim (without looking at the soundings), Similar or very slight worse than 00 UT, for DC it shows snow beginning between 11 AM and noon changing to mixed precipitation between 2 and 3, surface temperature of 34 degrees. 

Snow maximum still in central PA - just under 2 feet

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Well things looked good until we started seeing SLP and mid level tracks over the Bay. That won’t cut it in mid December unless you have a true Arctic airmass. 

I know we give NAM a lot of crap around here (poor thing) but it was the first to latch onto the inland track.  We all laughed at it..”aw how cute look at the crazy old uncle 84H NAM doing NAM-like things...”. 

Even uncle Larry can be right once in a while.

[Chris78]

Just now, dallen7908 said:

Euro 6z:

 

Verbatim (without looking at the soundings), Similar or very slight worse than 00 UT, for DC it shows snow beginning between 11 AM and noon changing to mixed precipitation between 2 and 3, surface temperature of 34 degrees. 

Snow maximum still in central PA - just under 2 feet

How far west and north does the mix line make it?

[ovechkin]

I admit to not really knowing PHL and NYC climo  (hell, I barely understand ours) but I cannot understand how PHL and NYC don't mix substantially with that L track.

[dailylurker]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I know we give NAM a lot of crap around here (poor thing) but it was the first to latch onto the inland track.  We all laughed at it..”aw how cute look at the crazy old uncle 84H NAM doing NAM-like things...”. 

Even uncle Larry can be right once in a while.

I said the same thing. NAM has the right idea soon as it was in range. Everyone laughed but I didn't. NAM is better then the EURO has been. Or how about the joke Canadian model lol.

[mappy]

looking briefly at 06z Euro -- northern areas lose 850s around 00z tomorrow night, but bounce back pretty quickly. all in all, thats not that bad given other model outputs. 

[mappy]

I need to get work done, you kids behave yourself. Love, Mom.

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I know we give NAM a lot of crap around here (poor thing) but it was the first to latch onto the inland track.  We all laughed at it..”aw how cute look at the crazy old uncle 84H NAM doing NAM-like things...”. 

Even uncle Larry can be right once in a while.

Totally my own take but I seem to recall if/when the NAM ever scores or takes the lead on trends it is typically very early in the season...must be better in the summer fall period then kinda loses steam deeper in winter is my WAG. I'm not bashing it at all so save those comments i'm just saying my recollection is that in years past it hits on these early season threats then fizzles later.

[WinterWxLuvr]

13 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

How far west and north does the mix line make it?

Detroit

[WinterWxLuvr]

10 minutes ago, mappy said:

looking briefly at 06z Euro -- northern areas lose 850s around 00z tomorrow night, but bounce back pretty quickly. all in all, thats not that bad given other model outputs. 

That’s a very intriguing map for me. That bullseye of colder h85 temps directly over me caught my eye

[ErinInTheSky]

Nothing changes for me in Germantown. Still somewhere between. 1 and 13 inches lol.

[eyewall]

Well if I was going to chase I would have to go all the way to PA for the max (which is what I want to go for). I also think it would strain my budget right now a bit. I will unfortunately have to enjoy the cold rain down here. I fully expect to zero out in Raleigh this year so I have to find an opportunity somewhere within reason before winter ends.

[Ji]

im taking the HRDPS....here is how much snow falls before changeover

 

[a.salt]