dailylurker Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: I know we give NAM a lot of crap around here (poor thing) but it was the first to latch onto the inland track. We all laughed at it..”aw how cute look at the crazy old uncle 84H NAM doing NAM-like things...”. Even uncle Larry can be right once in a while. I said the same thing. NAM has the right idea soon as it was in range. Everyone laughed but I didn't. NAM is better then the EURO has been. Or how about the joke Canadian model lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 looking briefly at 06z Euro -- northern areas lose 850s around 00z tomorrow night, but bounce back pretty quickly. all in all, thats not that bad given other model outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I need to get work done, you kids behave yourself. Love, Mom. 4 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: I know we give NAM a lot of crap around here (poor thing) but it was the first to latch onto the inland track. We all laughed at it..”aw how cute look at the crazy old uncle 84H NAM doing NAM-like things...”. Even uncle Larry can be right once in a while. Totally my own take but I seem to recall if/when the NAM ever scores or takes the lead on trends it is typically very early in the season...must be better in the summer fall period then kinda loses steam deeper in winter is my WAG. I'm not bashing it at all so save those comments i'm just saying my recollection is that in years past it hits on these early season threats then fizzles later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, Chris78 said: How far west and north does the mix line make it? Detroit 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, mappy said: looking briefly at 06z Euro -- northern areas lose 850s around 00z tomorrow night, but bounce back pretty quickly. all in all, thats not that bad given other model outputs. That’s a very intriguing map for me. That bullseye of colder h85 temps directly over me caught my eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Nothing changes for me in Germantown. Still somewhere between. 1 and 13 inches lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Well if I was going to chase I would have to go all the way to PA for the max (which is what I want to go for). I also think it would strain my budget right now a bit. I will unfortunately have to enjoy the cold rain down here. I fully expect to zero out in Raleigh this year so I have to find an opportunity somewhere within reason before winter ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 im taking the HRDPS....here is how much snow falls before changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a.salt Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: Everything east of the Blue Ridge I would cut in half of the lowest number for Virginia. An dc I don’t want to be overly critical but over the years it seems they are often a little slow to adjust to changing guidance. This works both ways. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t want to be overly critical but over the years it seems they are often a little slow to adjust to changing guidance. This works both ways. The latest snow map does not line up with their watches and warnings, so i think there was just a glitch...the snow map is not changed from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s a very intriguing map for me. That bullseye of colder h85 temps directly over me caught my eye Cold air stuck in the Valley. Blue ridge is our friend in this instance. But with the track being shown i will be surprised if we don't mix some even here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, a.salt said: 8-12” would be fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Cold air stuck in the Valley. Blue ridge is our friend in this instance. But with the track being shown i will be surprised if we don't mix some even here. That's an indication of heavy snow bands when you see that at 850 mb. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: That's an indication of heavy snow bands when you see that at 850 mb. This is joyous to my weenie ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: This is joyous to my weenie ears. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: That's an indication of heavy snow bands when you see that at 850 mb. That’s exactly what I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 32 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: Nothing changes for me in Germantown. Still somewhere between. 1 and 13 inches lol. Given the trends with this thing, my bar in Germantown is 4". Some of our forum's northern spots could end up with fat ice sandwich -- 6 or so inches of snow, a thick layer of sleet congealed by some freezing rain, then a few inches of powder on top. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Cold air stuck in the Valley. Blue ridge is our friend in this instance. But with the track being shown i will be surprised if we don't mix some even here. The valley doesn’t have mountains surrounding it high enough to trap cold at 850 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 20 minutes ago, a.salt said: That map is nuts. I live in Glen Burnie so I'll be chasing to the NW side of my neighborhood for a few extra inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 @mappy 6z euro was good if you take it in a vacuum but it again nudged everything NW as every run has for 2 days and even up here we are out of any wiggle room. Any further adjustment and we will lose both the WAA front thump but especially any back end as the best forcing for that keeps shifting north. If the trend stops right now we are ok but any continued west shifts of the track today and we are in trouble even up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Well...when I walked out to my car a little while ago (Arundel Mills area). All my windows were frozen over, a bottle of water inside had frozen and the washer fluid froze on contact. I'm just going to take the weenie approach and assume that I have a local cold dome that will make me invincible to the changeover. Might head back to my parent's place in Colesville to watch this one. Probably similar totals overall... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergeek Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 That map is nuts. I live in Glen Burnie so I'll be chasing to the NW side of my neighborhood for a few extra inchesMy point and click forecast for 22207 (cherrydale) is up to 3 inches with heavy rain mixed in during duration. 3 miles toward Falls Church is up to 7 inches, with possible ice . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @mappy 6z euro was good if you take it in a vacuum but it again nudged everything NW as every run has for 2 days and even up here we are out of any wiggle room. Any further adjustment and we will lose both the WAA front thump but especially any back end as the best forcing for that keeps shifting north. If the trend stops right now we are ok but any continued west shifts of the track today and we are in trouble even up here. Haven’t seen 6z euro, but took a quick look at other guidance. For MBY, it looks to all come down to the WAA thump. Thankfully, it looks pretty good on the 0z euro and meso guidance. But after that, it’s a sleet/rain mess and the CCB looks north of me. Maybe a finger of it sweeps through and gives me another dusting-2” tops, but that’s it. Pretty bleak frankly compared to 36hrs ago. If it wasn’t for that high pressure and confluence, this would be 100% rain for almost everyone with that surface low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 If we are looking for slight improvements, the high seems to be slightly stronger this run of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12z HRRR not bad... snow -> mix -> dry slot for DC then back to a bit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The NWS has 12-18 inches for me in Owings mills in the WSW... not seeing how that’s possible. Even the updated snowfall map of 8-12 doesn’t seem likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Uh, the snow map has a lot to do with getting info out to the public... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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